I'm sure ppl said the exact same thing when the naz went from 5000 to 3000, and then bounced more than halfway back up...
RM's occasional market calls...
- Thread starter Rearden Metal
- Start date
I'm sure ppl said the exact same thing when the naz went from 5000 to 3000, and then bounced more than halfway back up...
I have read a few articles lately on the true cost per oz for the miners and when you factor in everything it is around $1300-1500. I've heard the argument that this could put some sort of floor under the spot price because supply would dry up. Not sure on that, but what did it for me was looking at it from a perspective of an investor. I can't imagine anyone but those with really long timeframes wanting to invest a miner right now, whereas I can see plenty speculating on gold at these prices. From my only slightly educated point of view it seems to me that gold has to go back up for miners not to drop more. And if gold drops more it could really crush the miners.
But you can be sure I am rooting for your trade as well.
Sure, it also <i>feels right</i>!
Yes and no, because there's a long time lag until that price floor actually takes effect. Once the mining infrastructure is already in place, it costs WAY less than $1300-$1500/oz to extract bullion. Setting up new infrastructure where there are no existing mines... now, that's a different story.
Didn't really expect such a big move up AH, so got somewhat hedged with futures in case it keeps going up.
Along those lines....stock_trader was the great example of that. I took trades based of his posts and it was >90% correct. There was other stuff too, but that guy was legendary. But short answer: no. You can measure ET for sentiment (I do) and market news. I remember there was a thread here a few weeks ago posting mom and pop getting back into the mkt and if you reference that date with the SPX, you get my point.
Also, thanks RM for answering my previous question re: size/trigger shyness. It helps, however the point I was trying to get at how are you reconciling taking on size knowing you will 1 day get that blow out? I don't mind taking on 5:1 leverage but my stops are 2% away, whereas you seem to be using 5:1 leverage but your stops (if any) are 20% away.
BTW, June GC high right now pretty much closed the gap from the break, just saying....you know what to do.
"how are you reconciling taking on size knowing you will 1 day get that blow out?"
--->The idea is to make a run, and then very quickly withdraw much of the profits from my trading account, squirreling the funds away in other investments. If and when I blow up, the idea is to re-fund my trading account from previously withdrawn gains. That's how I survived five brutal drought years.
--->The idea is to make a run, and then very quickly withdraw much of the profits from my trading account, squirreling the funds away in other investments. If and when I blow up, the idea is to re-fund my trading account from previously withdrawn gains. That's how I survived five brutal drought years.
It would be awesome if we were to have another huge up day in gold today, forming a blow-off top (I hope). Short-term hedged with futures, this rally neither hurts nor helps my existing positions.
BTW, I took a minority of my ADT puts off the table at 3.10, 45 minutes ago. That's a decent gain already, even after slippage. Still have the majority though...
Also overhedged in gold to the point that a short term rally today actually helps me... Why I'm calling this shit out so openly is a mystery, even to me...
Also overhedged in gold to the point that a short term rally today actually helps me... Why I'm calling this shit out so openly is a mystery, even to me...