"what makes you so confident that this will breakdown this year and not 2 -5 years from now?"
---->Same question I asked myself a few days ago, before deciding I want in.
I still have an old school hard line phone in addition to my cell. I used to pay T for that service, while I paid Comcast for internet + TV.
So a couple years back when Comcast decided to aggressively invade the hard-line phone space, they were pretty relentless about trying to get me to switch from AT&T to their own service- A constant barrage of junk mail, TV ads, and most annoying of all by far: One telemarketing call after another no matter how many times I told them to quit invading my privacy with that shit, and just fuck off already. But eventually comcast <i>did</i> convince me that resistance is in fact futile, and I should just drop AT&T altogether and surrender to their internet+ TV + hard line 'Triple Play' package. Why? Because adding their phone service and ditching T's simply came out cheaper than my existing setup. I mean WAY cheaper, and you <i>do</i> know what my ethnic background is here, right?
So now Comcast is doing the exact same thing with residential security monitoring, and I mean the EXACT same aggressive marketing blitz, privacy invading telemarketers and all. My understanding is that Time Warner is pulling a similar deal in other major markets. So for me, the time to short ADT is now. As you may know, I don't really have any superpowers. I could be entirely wrong about this, but the trade <i>does</i> feel right.
"What will be the catalyst that makes people realize the valuation may not be warranted at these levels?"
---->When ADT is forced to admit their very healthy growth projections are simply unattainable.
"does your view on the overall market play into this? think a big pullback coming too?"
---->More likely than not, I kind of expect a 5%+ pullback (in spooz) starting within a month or so... but we will recover from it almost as quickly, and this won't be a big deal over the long term.
---->Same question I asked myself a few days ago, before deciding I want in.
I still have an old school hard line phone in addition to my cell. I used to pay T for that service, while I paid Comcast for internet + TV.
So a couple years back when Comcast decided to aggressively invade the hard-line phone space, they were pretty relentless about trying to get me to switch from AT&T to their own service- A constant barrage of junk mail, TV ads, and most annoying of all by far: One telemarketing call after another no matter how many times I told them to quit invading my privacy with that shit, and just fuck off already. But eventually comcast <i>did</i> convince me that resistance is in fact futile, and I should just drop AT&T altogether and surrender to their internet+ TV + hard line 'Triple Play' package. Why? Because adding their phone service and ditching T's simply came out cheaper than my existing setup. I mean WAY cheaper, and you <i>do</i> know what my ethnic background is here, right?
So now Comcast is doing the exact same thing with residential security monitoring, and I mean the EXACT same aggressive marketing blitz, privacy invading telemarketers and all. My understanding is that Time Warner is pulling a similar deal in other major markets. So for me, the time to short ADT is now. As you may know, I don't really have any superpowers. I could be entirely wrong about this, but the trade <i>does</i> feel right.
"What will be the catalyst that makes people realize the valuation may not be warranted at these levels?"
---->When ADT is forced to admit their very healthy growth projections are simply unattainable.
"does your view on the overall market play into this? think a big pullback coming too?"
---->More likely than not, I kind of expect a 5%+ pullback (in spooz) starting within a month or so... but we will recover from it almost as quickly, and this won't be a big deal over the long term.
especially for very short term traders. How easy is this days to REVERSE edge by someone with size following your trades via hidden trade duplication as YOU become target.
