RM's occasional market calls...

Rearden Metal · Apr 19, 2013

This post is intended for that one dude (at least... there's always at least one) who's just sitting there right now with his face turning red, totally stewing at my horrible 'inappropriateness'. He doesn't want to start shit after seeing what happened to the last five guys who tried that, so his anger just builds and builds with no vent in sight.

So dude: I feel you. I get it. Please don't start constructing RM voodoo dolls, because negativity really does get you nowhere. Look at it this way: Imagine you're in a group of people hanging out with the 'world's most interesting man' from those beer commercials. Do you really think everyone would rather he just keep quiet and humble, not bothering to entertain people with true stories of his many bizarre life experiences? Hardly! He has a much different role to play, so can you really blame him for it? Please just think about that.

My veins are thirsty, my friends.

toolazy · Apr 19, 2013

Quote from Rearden Metal:

I don't mind that one... So first let's completely exclude very short term quick hits that wouldn't even be worth posting here, because seconds matter so much in those types of trades. Now quick hits aside, I'd say that I get way fewer serious conviction plays per year than you do. Probably not even five, but around that much give or take... when I'm paying attention. However, if I'm in a long drought/slump and not even watching the market that closely, the number can actually be closer to zero.

interesting history... i know depression much too well... and it came way before trading so no link there.

Hope you wont mind answering this one as well:
I swing trade only and doing fine and know that i have edge, etc. After reading your bio, and seeing your shortterm success, got a question

Do you use same trading concepts for shorterm as for swing trading ? Asking this as I consider giving a try to shorterterm trading and not only "2 x a day check markets" thing using similar approach.

Rearden Metal · Apr 19, 2013

Yes, but you don't have nearly as many concepts to work with. Also keep in mind that short term trading used to be my main thing. Those HFT algo dudes drank my milkshake and wrecked all the old repeating patterns via over-exploitation.

Datradr · Apr 19, 2013

Hey RM,

I have read a number of your posts as well.. Just finished reading your bio link... I thought you were much older---but you are only 5 years older than me....wish i had started prop trading in 1998!!! good job though..

I was thinking for a while too that gold was at risk of breaking that support....i was just surprised at how crushed it was once it broke...maybe HFT adding to the mayheim.

Nice to hear some posts from some genuine ET posters...for a change..lol

hope you continue to post at least a few times a year.

maybe i will post some convictions trades too...o wait! no one will care hahaha

trendlover · Apr 19, 2013

Quote from Ol' Yella:

the way that trade played out has to make it the most amazing market call I have ever seen.

that was the stuff of trader fantasies...for the market to collapse in a bloodbath right after you get short. good stuff.

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Quote from Daring:

I did not read in details, was he expecting a collapse like near term or just for it to go lower over time ?

Reason I say this, is because many times luck plays an important role in our trading.

Now, if he mentioned that he was expecting a near term collapse, hard and fast, then hats off for sure.

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Quote from Rearden Metal:

---->Trend following hedge funds loaded up long metals during the lengthy bull market. Gold especially is very vulnerable right now. Also, I believe bond yields can't possibly stay at such ridiculously low levels for much longer. Higher bond yields will make various debt instruments relatively more attractive next to bullion. Add in the fact that to the masses, equities now look like a 'good place to invest' due to recent stock price gains, and a shift out of metals this year seems more likely than not.

I should add that these metals short positions are more of a long-term call than a short-term trade. Today I bought illiquid December '13 gold futures puts, slippage and all (putting in bids at mid-point or a little higher, not blindly taking out offers) - so I'm basically committed to holding on for a while.

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Quote from Rearden Metal:

Another thing is that I'm focused exclusively on bullion prices, not the stock price of bullion producers as displayed in your chart. The patterns are similar but different.
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Quote from Rearden Metal:

I had planned to hold for months, but with spot now down at $1379, I have put out a bunch of limit orders to liquidate that have been filled. I'm now out of most of the position, consider it closed here, will write more when I have time...

More...

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Quote from Rearden Metal:

Gold spot= $1363.60.

I'm now 100% out of all metals positions. Thanks a ton to everyone for all the encouragement, and I will talk later because I still have to decide how and if I play the metals long for a bounce at some point....

More...

Rearden Metal · Apr 20, 2013

So, is anyone here interested in hearing about my next market call?

Ok, I'll take that as a "yes"... but it just came to me today, and I need to build my position first before I can spill it here. Basically, I think I just noticed one of the the next companies about to get Eastman Kodak-ed!

There have always been opportunities to mint some serious coinage from those types of plays, and now that I've been forced to shift focus from quick hits to longer term ass-sittings, figuring out which companies are about to suffer massive DRAAAAAAAAAIIINNAGE by the ever changing times has become more important than ever, at least to me.

Can traders really make money off that type of play? Um, Can Moose Limbs really fuck up a country if you let a bunch of them in?! Of course they can! I mean, just think about Van der Moolen and LaBranche & Co. for a second here, and you'll see what I mean. That play was just sitting there for months (or was it years?), right in front of all our faces, and whoever wanted some free money from the publicly declared specialist system armageddon merely had to reach out and take it. And now we can all happily piss on their graves. Try telling me I'm wrong. (No, really- try if you feel like it! I never mind constructive criticism. It's trolling I'm not especially fond of, and Stevie Wonder can see the difference between the two.)

So the company with the not-so-bright future I'm referring to has around 10 bil in market cap and a P/E well over 20, and these poor guys have the corporate equivalent of a bunch of allah worshippers already climbing over their walls and passing out Korans. Yes, this one does have options- somewhat illiquid, but I've seen much worse. The cherry on top? Cramer says to buy it! Now I know you want in with me.

I'll give you the stock symbol sometime this coming week, whether or not I change my mind upon further review (doubtful, but you never know...)

cdcaveman · Apr 20, 2013

Quote from Rearden Metal:

So, is anyone here interested in hearing about my next market call?

Ok, I'll take that as a "yes"... but it just came to me today, and I need to build my position first before I can spill it here. Basically, I think I just noticed one of the the next companies about to be Eastman Kodak-ed!

There have always been opportunities to mint some serious coinage from those types of plays, and now that I've been forced to shift focus from quick hits to longer term ass-sittings, figuring out which companies are about to suffer massive DRAAAAAAAAAIIINNAGE by the ever changing times has become more important than ever, at least to me.

Can traders really make money off that type of play? Um, Can Moose Limbs really fuck up a country if you let a bunch of them in?! Of course they can! I mean, just think about Van der Moolen and LaBranche & Co. for a second here, and you'll see what I mean. That play was just sitting there for months (or was it years?), right in front of all our faces, and whoever wanted some free money from the publicly declared specialist system armageddon merely had to reach out and take it. Try telling me I'm wrong. (No, really- try if you feel like it! I never mind constructive criticism. It's trolling I'm not especially fond of, and Stevie Wonder can see the difference between the two.)

So the company with the not-so-bright future I'm referring to has around 10 bil in market cap and a P/E well over 20, and these poor guys have the corporate equivalent of a bunch of allah worshippers already climbing over their walls and passing out Korans. Yes, this one does have options- somewhat illiquid, but I've seen much worse. The cherry on top? Cramer says to buy it! Now I know you want in with me.

I'll give you the stock symbol sometime this coming week, whether or not I change my mind upon further review (doubtful, but you never know...)

i swear that cnbc cheerleader touts his own holdings to dump on the public.. he sold the public gold from 2011 all through the exact top of that market.. i remember i was new in 2012 feb.. cnbc had a call GNK at 9.. literally right after it took a huge shit.. within three months it was at 3 bucks .. .

Rearden Metal · Apr 20, 2013

Oh, one more thing! If you happen to take all my clues and figure out which company I'm referring to, would you mind PMing me with your cleverness instead of just blurting it out right here before I'm able to get in? Much appreciated!

Rearden Metal · Apr 21, 2013

Quote from levitation, take 2:

How did you get over the fear of losing large amounts of money?

Wait, hold on a second... Maybe there is a civilized way for me to explain where my cavalier attitude towards risk comes from in the first place, and why it's actually nothing to envy.

Think of the most un-Zen places a person can possibly find themselves. Or don't think, and I'll just tell you instead: There's a battlefield, a slaughterhouse, and there's the hole I was drafted and sent to serve in when I was just 18: A prison. (P.O.W. camp, prison- same thing, really. I would know.)

Getting mindfucked by such an anti-Zen place has the effect of triggering any and all potential mental illnesses that may have been lying dormant under the surface for one's entire pre-mindfuck life. The result? The So-Not-Worth-It silver lining is that the entire fear of risk mechanism any healthy mind has going for it is sometimes deactivated, apparently permanently in my case. I've seen mentally healthy traders do well too once in a while, so you don't want a piece of this... you really don't.

Option_Attack · Apr 21, 2013

RM, write a book about your experiences. Seems like it would be a good read...

Or if you don't think there is enough material for a book, get that Badboy, marketsurfer, involved. The book could be sort of a "Guerrilla" Market Wizards about the "golden age" of prop, and the aftermath of 9/11 and HFT, etc. It would consist of interviews of those that made millions in prop, and how they are doing now.

Chapter One: Rearden Metal...

But then from what I've seen, you write far better than surfey does!