RM's occasional market calls...

Quote from Rearden Metal:

Yes, life can get pretty complicated when you're the <i>Oskar Schindler of junkies.</i>* There are seven people who comprise my 'inner circle' of relatives and friends. Every single one of those seven can tell you that what I have is truly a problematic solution, not a drug problem. How many bona fide junkies can claim as much? Time to plug my site again: www.ProhibitionKills.com


*Oskar Schindler (of 'Schindler's List' fame) was a card-carrying Nazi with thousands of slave-laborers working in his factory. But to read that book by it's cover alone and label him a 'Nazi slave owner' would be a cruel injustice, since history clearly recognizes him as a stand-up guy who did all he could to do the right thing, under very difficult circumstances.
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funny you mention that .. Thomas Keneally is my direct relative.. on my mothers fathers side.. i love that movie.. i've been on both sides of the tracks.. i've abused drugs in my younger years.. went crazy after being sober 4 years.. put me on all kinds of psychotropics .. its not easy finding ones way through all this trash advertising and bad public influence.. every time you turn around someone wants to tell you what you "should" do .. or how you "should" live your life.. blah.. fu_k um.. :) nice site..
 
the way that trade played out has to make it the most amazing market call I have ever seen.

that was the stuff of trader fantasies...for the market to collapse in a bloodbath right after you get short. good stuff.
 
Quote from Ol' Yella:

for the market to collapse in a bloodbath right after you get short. good stuff.
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I did not read in details, was he expecting a collapse like near term or just for it to go lower over time ?

Reason I say this, is because many times luck plays an important role in our trading.

Now, if he mentioned that he was expecting a near term collapse, hard and fast, then hats off for sure.
 
Quote from Ol' Yella:

the way that trade played out has to make it the most amazing market call I have ever seen.

that was the stuff of trader fantasies...for the market to collapse in a bloodbath right after you get short. good stuff.
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But it's not the most amazing market call I've ever made. :D

This was:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...=73601&perpage=10&highlight=dakt&pagenumber=5

<b>08-15-06</b>
Quote from Rearden Metal:

Ok, Here we go!

See DAKT at $31.00?
It will be down over 5% from this level before tommorow's close.
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I had it sized up nicely, and the thing ended up collapsing to the low 20's the next morning (earnings play), IIRC. I made about half a mil off that deal- which is more than double what I just made on the recent gold trade.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1168954>

To make it even cooler, 08-15-06 was also the same exact day I exposed 'NYSE killer' as a complete fraud. (He was posting huge six-figure daily gains in the P/L thread. Those profits weren't exactly <i>real</i>, per se.):p
 
i suspect my style is somewhat similar to yours and get around 10 - 15 conviction, max size, double-up(if going as expected) trades a year. Out of these get around 3 full winners, the rest adds up to zero. It is my year 3 into real trading this style.

how many conviction calls per year do you have, if you don't mind?
 
Quote from toolazy:

i suspect my style is somewhat similar to yours and get around 10 - 15 conviction, max size, double-up(if going as expected) trades a year. Out of these get around 3 full winners, the rest adds up to zero. It is my year 3 into real trading this style.

how many conviction calls per year do you have, if you don't mind?
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I don't mind that one... So first let's completely exclude very short term quick hits that wouldn't even be worth posting here, because seconds matter so much in those types of trades. Now quick hits aside, I'd say that I get way fewer serious conviction plays per year than you do. Probably not even five, but around that much give or take... when I'm paying attention. However, if I'm in a long drought/slump and not even watching the market that closely, the number can actually be closer to zero.
 
RM, i'm both inspired and envious of your profits. I hope to one day reach this level, but right now i'm a fraction compared to you. like others, i have a couple questions (if you don't mind) :

How long did it take you to reach this level? Did you push yourself to increase size every year? In 2006 your big winner was DAKT a stock, but from recent postings your trading commodities and vixx positions - do you still trade with conviction in individual companies? How did you get over the fear of losing large amounts of money?

all the best and thank you :)
 
Lol at human nature! Everyone just totally lurves the cocky, handi-capable dude who manages to overcome adversity and get himself a pile of money and a hot chick even though fate dealt him a lousy hand. Now all I have to do is NOT shoot my wife three times through a door and then claim I thought she was an unusually fine 'intruder', and I should be all right. I think I can manage that.

So anyways Levitation, my previously posted bio should answer most of your questions: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1099141

Except for these two: "do you still trade with conviction in individual companies?"

---->Rarely, because I haven't been watching all that closely lately. Keep in mind that I'm just now trying to emerge from a brutal, post-blowup five year drought. So maybe now I'll pay more attention. There was one recent exception though, when I happened to notice DDD providing a sweet buying opportunity pullback in mid-March.

How did you get over the fear of losing large amounts of money?
-----> There's no way for me to answer that one without coming off like a complete asshole! However, just imagine how a complete asshole <i>would</i> in fact respond to that question, and you have your answer. :D
 
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