RM's occasional market calls...

JohnTack · Mar 4, 2014

Heat...

Rearden Metal · Mar 4, 2014

The CME website says there's no daily price limit on hogs. Reduce size here at 111.30. My first loss of this thread was bound to happen eventually. Even Michael Jordan lost the occasional game here and there.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agr...ns.html?optionProductId=21#optionProductId=21

I'm not making light of anyone's losses. I have my own 5-figure drawdown today from this lousy Islamic trade.

Zr1Trader · Mar 4, 2014

Rearden Metal said:
The CME website says there's no daily price limit on hogs. Reduce size here at 111.30. My first loss of this thread was bound to happen eventually...

the recent margin hikes didn't do a whole lot of damage on this one thus far. Hope ya get out ok nonetheless. Thx for sharing.

Optionpro007 · Mar 4, 2014

You are looking at the options tab. The limit is .03

Rearden Metal said:
The CME website says there's no daily price limit on hogs. Reduce size here at 111.30. My first loss of this thread was bound to happen eventually...

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agr...ns.html?optionProductId=21#optionProductId=21

I'm not making light of anyone's losses. I have my own 5-figure drawdown today from this fiasco.

Rearden Metal · Mar 4, 2014

Optionpro007 said:
You are looking at the options tab. The limit is .03

Oh, you're right! Thanks! Maybe I shouldn't mention it here, but I'm putting some size back on (short) right here at 111.50. To be exited by the end of the day, no matter what happens.

Low Salubrity Thug · Mar 4, 2014

Rearden Metal said:
Oh, you're right! Thanks! Maybe I shouldn't mention it here, but I'm putting some size back on (short) right here at 111.50. To be exited by the end of the day, no matter what happens.

Good call. This smells like a shakeout.

Reaction to 109.3 region critical.

Rearden Metal · Mar 4, 2014

After taking such a brutal loss on a trade I originally had high confidence for, my confidence is (temporarily) shaken. Maybe this PED virus thing is far worse than us industry outsiders have imagined? I don't exactly have a bunch of hog farmers in my contacts list.

Regardless, I'm thinking that if the market is still locked limit up at 1:00 PM CST (2:00 EST), it's time to put in a bid and just get out. (You can get filled at limit up, it just might take a while.)

P.S. In IB's TWS, how does one display S&P futures premium/discount over cash? This should help, but it doesn't: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=daily_analysis&p=futures
Thanks.

Rearden Metal · Mar 4, 2014

On second thought, rattled post-loss as I am, I'm just bidding here at limit up (111.675) to make sure I get out today. Assuming we get over 1,000 more contracts traded by day's end (a near certainty), that's the official end of this miserable trade. My condolences to anyone who followed me in... but still my overall record on this thread has got to be something like;

Wins: 25
Losses: 1
Pushes: 1 or 2.

JohnTack · Mar 4, 2014

My first trade with you

That's always happening when I'm trying to piggyback any market guru

Please don't give up and post more.

Zr1Trader · Mar 4, 2014

Rearden Metal said:
On second thought, rattled post-loss as I am, I'm just bidding here at limit up (111.675) to make sure I get out today. Assuming we get over 1,000 more contracts traded by day's end (a near certainty), that's the official end of this miserable trade. My condolences to anyone who followed me in... but still my overall record on this thread has got to be something like;

Wins: 25
Losses: 1
Pushes: 1 or 2.

What was the percentage hit you took on liquid net worth if you don't mind ? What is your avg risk per trade in percentage terms? I ask to benefit those who may be following calls so they don't blow themselves up or keep adding into the abyss.