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RM's occasional market calls...
- Thread starter Rearden Metal
- Start date
<i>do you think the bull market is over with yesterday's action or is this just sort of a quick scalp type trade?</i>
Well, since I'm already flat in silver now after holding for less than two days, I'd definitely call it more of a 'quick scalp type trade' than a 'bull market is over' type trade.
Silver just made a 60% move higher over the past two months. Now, had gold done the same thing I would definitely be asking myself right now if this week marks 'The Top' of this entire decade-long bull market in bullion. But gold did nothing of the sort, moving only about 16% higher in the same period. I've been saying for years that this long-term gold bull won't be over until we see a dramatic 'orgasm spike top'. And if gold isn't done yet, certainly silver shouldn't be done yet either, right? But I wouldn't be entirely comfortable holding a lot of silver long at these prices. It could easily correct 30% downwards from these levels... unlike gold where you have a bit more stability.
<i>
RM, have you ever thought about making a movie about your life? (With some sort of happy end, please.)
</i>
No, but thanks for the compliment. There are plenty more interesting stories to be told than mine.
<i> trade story: was a spike up after policy announcement to draw in chumps, pattern had a high momentum spike up revealing intense emotions. and euro gave telltales
good or no?
</i>
You could have phrased that a little better, but I think I get the idea. IMO, the market doesn't generally move for any kind of designed purpose ('to draw in chumps') as if you have a bunch of rich old white guys sitting in a cigar-smoke filled room somewhere deciding where the market should go, and why. People are really afraid right now that the dollar might collapse. The fed keeps printing more and more dollars and throwing it from helicopters while the Chinese, Japanese, and Arabs are sitting on a giant pile (trillions) of U.S. currency... and they're not comfortable. And if they're not comfortable with their dollar holdings, no one else should be. That's what these bullion moves are all about, IMO. Why did silver just move so much more than gold did? I'm wondering that myself. Does anyone have any theories to explain it? I'd like to hear..
Well, since I'm already flat in silver now after holding for less than two days, I'd definitely call it more of a 'quick scalp type trade' than a 'bull market is over' type trade.
Silver just made a 60% move higher over the past two months. Now, had gold done the same thing I would definitely be asking myself right now if this week marks 'The Top' of this entire decade-long bull market in bullion. But gold did nothing of the sort, moving only about 16% higher in the same period. I've been saying for years that this long-term gold bull won't be over until we see a dramatic 'orgasm spike top'. And if gold isn't done yet, certainly silver shouldn't be done yet either, right? But I wouldn't be entirely comfortable holding a lot of silver long at these prices. It could easily correct 30% downwards from these levels... unlike gold where you have a bit more stability.
<i>
RM, have you ever thought about making a movie about your life? (With some sort of happy end, please.)
</i>
No, but thanks for the compliment. There are plenty more interesting stories to be told than mine.
<i> trade story: was a spike up after policy announcement to draw in chumps, pattern had a high momentum spike up revealing intense emotions. and euro gave telltales
good or no?
</i>
You could have phrased that a little better, but I think I get the idea. IMO, the market doesn't generally move for any kind of designed purpose ('to draw in chumps') as if you have a bunch of rich old white guys sitting in a cigar-smoke filled room somewhere deciding where the market should go, and why. People are really afraid right now that the dollar might collapse. The fed keeps printing more and more dollars and throwing it from helicopters while the Chinese, Japanese, and Arabs are sitting on a giant pile (trillions) of U.S. currency... and they're not comfortable. And if they're not comfortable with their dollar holdings, no one else should be. That's what these bullion moves are all about, IMO. Why did silver just move so much more than gold did? I'm wondering that myself. Does anyone have any theories to explain it? I'd like to hear..
Quote from Rearden Metal:
<i>do you think the bull market is over with yesterday's action or is this just sort of a quick scalp type trade?</i>
That's what these bullion moves are all about, IMO. Why did silver just move so much more than gold did? I'm wondering that myself. Does anyone have any theories to explain it? I'd like to hear..
?Basically relative strength trade. The spread just gets wider, people see the strength and long silver short gold to be neutral.
the fundamental reason: is probably silver just catching up with golds progress over the years, oversold becomes overbought eventually.
First, I think silver will be retreating to at least $17 and you covered way too early or sold out of the inverse etf too early. Either way...
Second, what happened is that silver went parabolic and into that familiar BARF pattern. Remember March 2000?
Whatever the news is the news. It comes out everyday. However, the fact is that you have the largest silver holder in the world (SLV) with 400,000,000 ounces (4 times the YEARLY production of Peru) having a high volume down day of 150,000,000 which was a month's worth of volume just 6 months ago.
I say Silver will return where it came from and SLV will trade at 17. Remember March 2008 when Silver all of a sudden dumped down. That is what we are looking at now. Right now weekly volume is up at 300 million (2 more days to go and 300 mill is 3 months of 2nd quarter avg volume).
Maybe someone can enlighten me on what happens to all that silver in their vaults on these high volume dumps...
Second, what happened is that silver went parabolic and into that familiar BARF pattern. Remember March 2000?
Whatever the news is the news. It comes out everyday. However, the fact is that you have the largest silver holder in the world (SLV) with 400,000,000 ounces (4 times the YEARLY production of Peru) having a high volume down day of 150,000,000 which was a month's worth of volume just 6 months ago.
I say Silver will return where it came from and SLV will trade at 17. Remember March 2008 when Silver all of a sudden dumped down. That is what we are looking at now. Right now weekly volume is up at 300 million (2 more days to go and 300 mill is 3 months of 2nd quarter avg volume).
Maybe someone can enlighten me on what happens to all that silver in their vaults on these high volume dumps...
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Quote from retaildaytrader:
First, I think silver will be retreating to at least $17 and you covered way too early or sold out of the inverse etf too early. Either way...
Two things:
1) Even if I agreed with you that silver was eventually headed for $17, this is a trading account, not a long term investment account. I wouldn't want to tie up so much capital for months when I need it for other short-term trades that will arise.
2) I put about 75% of my short silver position back on, right before the close. I didn't want to mention that here because now I'll feel obligated to call out my exit prices. Too late now, I guess. ZSL current price:$13.35, and I'm long ZSL (short silver). Projected time frame is 1-2 days. Feel free to piggyback if you like money...