what was it the late great James Dean said..."live fast die young:?
riskarb's trading journal
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what was it the late great James Dean said..."live fast die young:?
Vols coming into G7 are spiking a bit across the majors and some of the yen crosses. Excellent time to buy some long delta no touches on Cable. I would look to the <20d strike around 1.8550, expiring Monday at the NY fix. I am running that position w/o hedge, but selling a few Cable isn't a bad idea. No more than a few delta equivalent.
my EX-wife always says that
what language are you speaking anyways
Riskarb, I'm looking more into synthetic straddles as you described them in another thread. I'm incorporating two markets, one has a trend following system and the other a counter trend system, both with the average trade around 20 days.
Both systems are always in, I'm looking at these rules to trade the synthetics:
Entry: Take futures signal, sell two options .5 sigma out creating synthetic straddle.
Exit: buy short options if delta inverts (approx. atm) or if spot moves .5 sigma adversely from spot entry. In both exits initiate new synthetic straddle. flip if spot model changes direction.
Disregarding theta, with a 50% win rate the synthetics should lose money. Obviously a trend following model <50% win rate and a counter trend is typically >50% win rate. I'm wondering how large a ramification the win rate has and how impacting theta is. After all, these are simply straddles which are not completely delta neutral.
This is slightly different than your barrier trades which sells the barrier first (short options) and then trades spot as needed. Conversely, a synthetic is always on.
'appreciate any thoughts you may have.
Best to you in your new firm.
Both systems are always in, I'm looking at these rules to trade the synthetics:
Entry: Take futures signal, sell two options .5 sigma out creating synthetic straddle.
Exit: buy short options if delta inverts (approx. atm) or if spot moves .5 sigma adversely from spot entry. In both exits initiate new synthetic straddle. flip if spot model changes direction.
Disregarding theta, with a 50% win rate the synthetics should lose money. Obviously a trend following model <50% win rate and a counter trend is typically >50% win rate. I'm wondering how large a ramification the win rate has and how impacting theta is. After all, these are simply straddles which are not completely delta neutral.
This is slightly different than your barrier trades which sells the barrier first (short options) and then trades spot as needed. Conversely, a synthetic is always on.
'appreciate any thoughts you may have.
Best to you in your new firm.
I can't imagine a 50% directional hit-rate would produce net losses on an index contract or a diversified portfolio [valid dataset] w/a 20-day average duration -- unless you're showing a large increase in volatility. In order of magnitude: delta//vega//g+t
You should be net positive with random entries [50% hit rate] if vol is static or declining at 2 sigmas.
Anecdotally, it's the only vanilla short gamma strategy I've seen that's consistently produced wealth on the floor. 7/10 of the wealthiest option traders I've known have followed this path. The remaining three hit lottery wins in 1987. This does not include large market making operations.
I wouldn't trade delta straddles if your 20-day system carries a high hit rate.
You should be net positive with random entries [50% hit rate] if vol is static or declining at 2 sigmas.
Anecdotally, it's the only vanilla short gamma strategy I've seen that's consistently produced wealth on the floor. 7/10 of the wealthiest option traders I've known have followed this path. The remaining three hit lottery wins in 1987. This does not include large market making operations.
I wouldn't trade delta straddles if your 20-day system carries a high hit rate.
Well, sure... but the assumption is a > even probability of reaching neutrality and producing convergence of the premium on the delta straddle to the atm.
The most successful practitioner I know of had a slightly better than random entry and produced a 80% hit rate on the delta straddle at 1:1 risk-reward.
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