riskarb's trading journal

riskarb · Jul 26, 2006

Quote from TGM:

You could do some interesting things with those 10 minute or hourly bets into the number for forex. Interesting site. They pay out in dollars through ACH. I have yet to see an outfit like this take American Cash. Interesting this one appears to.

Risk,

Did you have any problems getting your money from BOM?

None, but I routinely cashed-out when hitting $20k. They required notarized IDs as a big ticket account.

riskarb · Jul 26, 2006

Quote from TGM:

thanks will do.

But if you bet 20 to make 40 on a double and the DAx is higher 10 minutes later. I do not see how they can fool with that. If you are no good you are not making money and if you are decent you will skin them. It is simply gambling/speculating. Pricing it out. I do not see how they can skin you on straight bets. But I will read all and thanks.

All these low cost betting shops are interesting.

They can't after the trade... they increase the vig by raising the premium on the cash-strike in the bull intraday digital[discount for bear-bet]. SPX at 1266... BOM intraday double requires a beat of $1267.xx

You know this before placing the action. I've never made one of these intraday wagers.

RichardRimes · Jul 27, 2006

Quote from riskarb:

lol, within 3 of the upper. God, trading these is like BASE jumping on crack. I'd give 10:1 odds we don't hit 1277 tomorrow. Good luck Mo, you look alright.

Based on the futures this am I'll take that bet

actually I'm 100% positive this run will take us to 1295 on the cash...why? My short call:eek: Now where did I put that hedge....hummmm

btw thanks Mo....

riskarb · Jul 27, 2006

Quote from RichardRimes:

Based on the futures this am I'll take that bet actually I'm 100% positive this run will take us to 1295 on the cash...why? My short call:eek: Now where did I put that hedge....hummmm

btw thanks Mo....

still want that action? =)

IV_Trader · Jul 27, 2006

Mo , twice within 2 point , you are my hero. Can I subscribe to your news letter ?

RichardRimes · Jul 27, 2006

Quote from riskarb:

still want that action? =)

uhmmmm....no Thats why I don't bet

and oh Mr James Dean drinks are on you and make mine a double:eek:

riskarb · Aug 4, 2006

Looks like a good time to play a large double [NT] barrier in NDX. =)

RichardRimes · Aug 4, 2006

why? You could be right. There does seems to be very tight barriers both on the upside as well as downside.

yip1997 · Aug 4, 2006

Quote from riskarb:

Looks like a good time to play a large double [NT] barrier in NDX. =)

Riskarb,

Perhaps you can help. We are talking about touching probability in SPX credit spread journal.

I wonder if you can offer the formula or provide insights for us. I think you use it when trading barrier. We just trade vanilla, but I think it is still useful.

riskarb · Aug 6, 2006

Barrier probabilities can be roughly solved by the implied payout. A no touch priced at 30/100 implies a 70% probability, assuming that the 30 is fairval model output. Modeling exotic barriers can be useful in deriving strike probabilities.