Riskarb's combo to fly conversion journal

Quote from IV_Trader:

iv will go to 50th tomorrow

Agree, probably see 55% at the open, continued vol-contango. Mar will trade at least 500basis under Febs.
 
Quote from optioncoach:

Why? LOL


Feb $130 Straddle sold @ $21.70 IV ~104%

Using option calculator:

Assuming S = $117 and IV = 80%
Straddle = $19.30

Assuming S = $117 and IV = 70%
Straddle = $17.65

Assuming S = $110 and IV = 80%
Straddle = $22.30

Assuming S = $120 and IV = 80%
Straddle = $18.00

So lots of different scenarios. MAR is trading at 70% so if IV crashes it might go to 80 or hopefully close to MAR vols but with drop in price I expect it to stay somewhat higher.

I'd say we'll see a 35-40% or so haircut in IV's come tomorrow. with the stock hovering around 123 and the weekend around the corner, shouldn't you be collecting at least $6-$8 sometime in the afternoon??
 
You are losing me and I know this is non-Greek English!

At vol of 60% and s= $120, the straddle will be worth $18.00 or so. I will look at the wings to see if it is worth converting. I assume the call wings would get crushed but the puts will still have some duckets in em.

EDIT: Watching repeat of Cramer, he is talking to an analyst about ISRG! 1 Line mention and nothing really, he moved on to another stock lol. He is useless.


Quote from riskarb:

Now your entire book is doomed.
 
ISRG

Sold Feb $130 Straddle @ $21.70 (104% vol)

Bought 115/145 Strangle @ $4.30 (~63% vols)

Iron Fly (115/130/145) legged into for net credit of $2.40.


Quote from optioncoach:


I sold 3 FEB $130 Straddles @ $21.70 (vol ~104%)

 
Quote from optioncoach:

ISRG

Sold Feb $130 Straddle @ $21.70 (104% vol)

Bought 115/145 Strangle @ $4.30 (~63% vols)

Iron Fly (115/130/145) legged into for net credit of $2.40.

why ???
 
Because I want to get a better feel for these positions. I jumped out of the OIH and ACL positions prematurely. If I really want to understand this strategy and determine if I want to do regular positions I want to test the waters. Since the ISRG has a guaranteed profit already I converted and will let it ride the next two weeks.

I do not want to get into the habit of just selling naked straddles and covering.

Quote from IV_Trader:

why ???
 
Quote from optioncoach:

Because I want to get a better feel for these positions. I jumped out of the OIH and ACL positions prematurely. If I really want to understand this strategy and determine if I want to do regular positions I want to test the waters. Since the ISRG has a guaranteed profit already I converted and will let it ride the next two weeks.

I do not want to get into the habit of just selling naked straddles and covering.

got it , thanks
 
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