Riskarb's combo to fly conversion journal

If the stock has moved since selling the straddle, is it better to offset straddle as opposed to putting wings on?

For example:

Sold MSTR 100 straddle for 15.0 a few days ago and the stock is currently arround 92.

I could offset straddle for 13.05, or 1.95 profit, or

Buy 90/110 strangle for 5.3 and be in fly for .30 debit.

Just wondering how much condieration should be given to whether stock is currently near one of the wing strikes (or even beyond it for that matter).

Great thread btw and thanks in advance.

Pete
 
new "in play" for pure vols shorting into report (like coach did with ISRG):
ERTS ( today , ac) , already had pre-warning in DEC , iv above norm now
 
Quote from dojiboy007:

If the stock has moved since selling the straddle, is it better to offset straddle as opposed to putting wings on?

For example:

Sold MSTR 100 straddle for 15.0 a few days ago and the stock is currently arround 92.

I could offset straddle for 13.05, or 1.95 profit, or

Buy 90/110 strangle for 5.3 and be in fly for .30 debit.

Just wondering how much condieration should be given to whether stock is currently near one of the wing strikes (or even beyond it for that matter).

Great thread btw and thanks in advance.

Pete
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Check the current mark to market value of the fly and compare the converted-gains/fly mark to the straddle offset. How close to neutrality? What's your outlook for direction and price distribution on the underlying? How close to expiration? There are no hard and fast rules here w.r.t. offset/conversion.
 
What you're saying is that there're no rules / strategies that will work no matter what. To get the long term positive expectancy it depends on when and how you decide to apply a strategy or another function of your forecast of price and implied volatility. The readers of this journal shouldn't think that this is about a fail safe options strategy that they could use in any circumstances. You're picking those underlyings that you expect to behave favorably to your selling of short term straddles.
Quote from riskarb:

Check the current mark to market value of the fly and compare the converted-gains/fly mark to the straddle offset. How close to neutrality? What's your outlook for direction and price distribution on the underlying? How close to expiration? There are no hard and fast rules here w.r.t. offset/conversion.
More...
 
Quote from cnms2:

What you're saying is that there're no rules / strategies that will work no matter what. To get the long term positive expectancy it depends on when and how you decide to apply a strategy or another function of your forecast of price and implied volatility. The readers of this journal shouldn't think that this is about a fail safe options strategy that they could use in any circumstances. You're picking those underlyings that you expect to behave favorably to your selling of short term straddles.
More...

Well stated. Converting to an arb-credit doesn't guarantee you won't lose any marked-gains accrued. Neutrality has little to do with hit rate nor r/r. In fact, neutrality itself is an anathema. The last CME trade expresses your point; the trade earned from direction[bear delta] and contraction in vol and my prediction of a lower, inside day on the chart the following session. It's more art than science; whether the results are good or bad.

Selling a straddle is hardly a fail-safe strategy.
 
Quote from riskarb:

Short ACL Feb 125 straddle at $9.75 and 41% vol
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Holding ACL into the weekend. 10-wide is not compelling nor is the $.50 gain on the straddle. Will offset or fly on Monday.
 
Aww shucks. You mean to tell me there's no money-making strategy that doesn't require skill and prediction? Darn it. [Insert international symbol for sarcasm here]

Quote from riskarb:

Well stated. Converting to an arb-credit doesn't guarantee you won't lose any marked-gains accrued. Neutrality has little to do with hit rate nor r/r. In fact, neutrality itself is an anathema. The last CME trade expresses your point; the trade earned from direction[bear delta] and contraction in vol and my prediction of a lower, inside day on the chart the following session. It's more art than science; whether the results are good or bad.

Selling a straddle is hardly a fail-safe strategy.
More...
 
Sarcasm Smiley petition

  • Sarcasm Smiley <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=970266>
    I think we need one to avoid misunderstandings.

    After all, when you think about it, misinterpretations are very easy when you get the text but no tone of voice as such. Look at the difference one captial letter can make for example:

    "Help your Uncle Jack off a horse."

    "Help your Uncle jack off a horse."

    It may just make things easier all round!

    Just a thought
Quote from momoneythansens:

Aww shucks. You mean to tell me there's no money-making strategy that doesn't require skill and prediction? Darn it. [Insert international symbol for sarcasm here]
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Attachments

LMAO. I love it. [EDIT] I need to permanently attach that to all of my posts. Need one for "tongue-in-cheek" too, though the visual representation might be somewhat misconstrued![/EDIT]

Quote from cnms2:


Sarcasm Smiley <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=970266>...
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