Riskarb's combo to fly conversion journal
- Thread starter riskarb
- Start date
I have been watching GOOG all day, especially the last minute surge to $427.50. I was hesitant in making any position adjustments to see if there would be a fizzle. It did drop back to $416 or so but moved back higher.
The 380/420 does not make sense now since it is trading outside of that and the max loss on that converted FLY is more than simply closing the Straddle itself so I am passing on that for now. I will watch the price action tomorrow. If it continues to show strong upward movement then I will either convert to FLY or get out entirely.
So the 430/370 are in my Watch List but if GOOG keeps moving higher it may not be worth the FLY roll.
I have looked at buying 5 $390 Calls and rolling into bull call spread with the naked put and take a very bullish position. The roll will not cost me anything as long as the $390 Call is bought at $53.60 or less but there is the risk of the naked put. This is not a great adjustment but have been playing with it on paper.
But any move higher tomorrow I think I will simply be out.
The 380/420 does not make sense now since it is trading outside of that and the max loss on that converted FLY is more than simply closing the Straddle itself so I am passing on that for now. I will watch the price action tomorrow. If it continues to show strong upward movement then I will either convert to FLY or get out entirely.
So the 430/370 are in my Watch List but if GOOG keeps moving higher it may not be worth the FLY roll.
I have looked at buying 5 $390 Calls and rolling into bull call spread with the naked put and take a very bullish position. The roll will not cost me anything as long as the $390 Call is bought at $53.60 or less but there is the risk of the naked put. This is not a great adjustment but have been playing with it on paper.
But any move higher tomorrow I think I will simply be out.
The diversity certainly lets you play off the different positions. Also, if GOOG did not have a $27 point surge that would have helped too lol.
I have a preset loss limit in my mind so I will milk it a little more before bailing. I think I might dip in and out of these occasionaly with small positions and test em out. The numerous adjustments make em quite interesting and using a variety of underlyings I can spread the risk.
What I am starting to look at is doing the naked straddles on SPX and looking to roll them into FLYs in conjunction witht the credit spreads. Only problem is the margin is a bee-ach and the SPX does not have such IV contraction. I would have to rely on some serious sideways movement and theta for a few days to leg in.
However I get a daily report from Chartbender.com which lists high and low IV options as well as high and low IV straddles. So I amy use them as a research tool and test a few here and there with 5 or 10 contracts. I will post them here aliong with riskarb if he does not mind.
I have a preset loss limit in my mind so I will milk it a little more before bailing. I think I might dip in and out of these occasionaly with small positions and test em out. The numerous adjustments make em quite interesting and using a variety of underlyings I can spread the risk.
What I am starting to look at is doing the naked straddles on SPX and looking to roll them into FLYs in conjunction witht the credit spreads. Only problem is the margin is a bee-ach and the SPX does not have such IV contraction. I would have to rely on some serious sideways movement and theta for a few days to leg in.
However I get a daily report from Chartbender.com which lists high and low IV options as well as high and low IV straddles. So I amy use them as a research tool and test a few here and there with 5 or 10 contracts. I will post them here aliong with riskarb if he does not mind.
Well here is what I did with GOOG today. Given teh strength and the continued rise to earnings next week I did the following:
1. Initially I sold 5 FEB $400 Straddles @ $53.60 for a credit of $26,800.
2. Today I closed the $400 Puts @ $10.10 (sold at $22.50) for a profit of $12.40 or $6,200. This cost me $5,050 to buy back, reducing my net credit on the straddle to $21,750.
3. I purchased the FEB $390 Call and rolled into Bull Call Spread ($390/$400) since I am now bullish on GOOG through the earnings. I paid $61.70 for 5 $390 Calls or $30,850. If you subtract the net credit I already received, the cost was $9,100.
4. The net cost of the spread is $9,100 and has a value of $5,000 (10-point spread and 5 spreads).
5. At or close to expiration I expect GOOG to be above $400. In that case the net loss on the spread will be $4,100 ($9,100 cost minus $5,000 credit to close). Combined with the net profit on the closed puts of $6,200 this is a net profit combined of $2,100.
So if GOOG stays above $400 I turn my short straddle into a $2,100 profitable bull call spread. If GOOG tanks I lose $9,100 on the spread which is offset by the $6,200 in profit already collected for a net loss of $2,900.
SUMMARY: I now have a position where I risk $2,900 to make $2,100 on the assumption that GOOG will remain above $400.
I am pretty tired this morning from working late so if I @#$%ed up the math let me know. If not, then I think I made a good adjustment based on my changed view of GOOG. For some reason I have this little devil telling me I iz wrong!
EDIT: Something is off here and I think I am double counting the put profit somehow. Worst case scenario I still have a limited loss and some good tuition. ANyone catch the mistake please tell me. 5 hours sleep is not working for me today LOL.
1. Initially I sold 5 FEB $400 Straddles @ $53.60 for a credit of $26,800.
2. Today I closed the $400 Puts @ $10.10 (sold at $22.50) for a profit of $12.40 or $6,200. This cost me $5,050 to buy back, reducing my net credit on the straddle to $21,750.
3. I purchased the FEB $390 Call and rolled into Bull Call Spread ($390/$400) since I am now bullish on GOOG through the earnings. I paid $61.70 for 5 $390 Calls or $30,850. If you subtract the net credit I already received, the cost was $9,100.
4. The net cost of the spread is $9,100 and has a value of $5,000 (10-point spread and 5 spreads).
5. At or close to expiration I expect GOOG to be above $400. In that case the net loss on the spread will be $4,100 ($9,100 cost minus $5,000 credit to close). Combined with the net profit on the closed puts of $6,200 this is a net profit combined of $2,100.
So if GOOG stays above $400 I turn my short straddle into a $2,100 profitable bull call spread. If GOOG tanks I lose $9,100 on the spread which is offset by the $6,200 in profit already collected for a net loss of $2,900.
SUMMARY: I now have a position where I risk $2,900 to make $2,100 on the assumption that GOOG will remain above $400.
I am pretty tired this morning from working late so if I @#$%ed up the math let me know. If not, then I think I made a good adjustment based on my changed view of GOOG. For some reason I have this little devil telling me I iz wrong!
EDIT: Something is off here and I think I am double counting the put profit somehow. Worst case scenario I still have a limited loss and some good tuition. ANyone catch the mistake please tell me. 5 hours sleep is not working for me today LOL.
Riskarb:
What about OIH $155 straddle...
Selling for $11.70 and at IV of 37.50% which is a high not counting the post-Katrina spike. Vols have spiked the past week or so while historical vols still in the bottom ranges.
What about OIH $155 straddle...
Selling for $11.70 and at IV of 37.50% which is a high not counting the post-Katrina spike. Vols have spiked the past week or so while historical vols still in the bottom ranges.
BMHC 77+ Feb 75... $10.20... 52% -- bought 65/85 strangle at $1.60
CEPH 73+ Feb 75... $8.20...44% -- bought 70/80 at $3.60
NOV 69+ Feb 70... $6.80...40% -- offset
PD 143+ Feb 140 ... $14.60...43% -- bought 130/150 strangle at $5.50
SNDK 77+ Feb 75... $13.70...74% -- bought 65/85 strangle at $5.50
TIE 71+ Feb 70... $10.90...64% -- bought the 60/80 strangle at $2.90
OIH 148+ Feb 145...12.60...36%
GOOG 399+ Feb 400...$55.00...64%
CME converted to 360/380/400 fly at $.13 debit risk
BMHC to 10w 65/75/85 at $1.40 debit risk
CEPH to 5w 70/75/80 at $.40 debit risk
NOV offset at .80 loss
PD to 10w 130/140/150 at $.90 debit risk
SNDK to 10w 65/75/85 at $1.80 debit risk
TIE to 10w 60/70/80 at $2.00 debit risk
OIH and GOOG remain open. I will post a follow-up with mark to market natural fly debits[if flies were purchased today].
CEPH 73+ Feb 75... $8.20...44% -- bought 70/80 at $3.60
NOV 69+ Feb 70... $6.80...40% -- offset
PD 143+ Feb 140 ... $14.60...43% -- bought 130/150 strangle at $5.50
SNDK 77+ Feb 75... $13.70...74% -- bought 65/85 strangle at $5.50
TIE 71+ Feb 70... $10.90...64% -- bought the 60/80 strangle at $2.90
OIH 148+ Feb 145...12.60...36%
GOOG 399+ Feb 400...$55.00...64%
CME converted to 360/380/400 fly at $.13 debit risk
BMHC to 10w 65/75/85 at $1.40 debit risk
CEPH to 5w 70/75/80 at $.40 debit risk
NOV offset at .80 loss
PD to 10w 130/140/150 at $.90 debit risk
SNDK to 10w 65/75/85 at $1.80 debit risk
TIE to 10w 60/70/80 at $2.00 debit risk
OIH and GOOG remain open. I will post a follow-up with mark to market natural fly debits[if flies were purchased today].