Risk/Reward...some thoughts...some questions

[aPismoClam]

Quote from Steve Tvardek:

If you are an active trader (ie at least 4 or 5 trades a day minimum), I think its nearly impossible to gain an 80% success rate consistently over time. There are just so many variables to every trade and so many things that can go wrong even in a "perfect setup". I probably avg about 80 roundtrip trades a day and the thought of being right 4 out of 5 times seems pretty absurd. Any other active traders agree/disagree?

well, since you asked...my experience is different. depends on your approach and, once again, whether or not you get the fill.

 

[gnome]

Quote from ER9:

"... Lets say you have a rock solid system/strategy that has an 80% success rate...."

20 years in the trenches.... never seen this, never even heard of it.

 

[ER9]

Quote from spreadem:


Is that 80% theoretical or actual results ?
... over how many trades ?

You can't tell if a system is rock solid until you trade it. [/B]

Theoretical at the moment i was just using that as an example to clarify my thought and question.

i begin foreward testing today. 80% is what i'm hoping for from some past results iv'e had trading a modified version of this strategy.

realistically i will find out but the percentage looks like it will be high after modifing the profit. only time will tell but i appreciate all the responses so far.

i fell into the trap of trying to adjust my strategy around risk/reward i misunderstood and couldn't make it work. now that i threw that all out the window and re-thought how to build risk/reward into my strategy it seems i finally have what i have been after. i just wanted to make sure my instincts were right and needed some advice...much appreciated so far.

 

[gnome]

Quote from MD-R2:

"...Is 80% 2/1 a realistic expectation somewhere down the line?

No. In fact, it's even theoretically impossible.

50% win rate with 2:1 is an excellent goal and realistic. (And I once had a 5 year period with 71% winners. I've since come to recognize that as a "hot streak" rather than my ability.)