Aye, there's the rub. It can be done, in a fashion on the calendar spread. But the real trick is knowing when to get out of the winner and let the loser recover. I am tiring of that game in CL. So damned tired. I may just go back to pure daytrading the TA charts and tell all the fundamentals to fuk off. :-(
Risk mitigation.
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Aye, there's the rub. It can be done, in a fashion on the calendar spread. But the real trick is knowing when to get out of the winner and let the loser recover. I am tiring of that game in CL. So damned tired. I may just go back to pure daytrading the TA charts and tell all the fundamentals to fuk off. :-(
I should also add that it is my opinion that guys who trade options do so because they actually, secretly, without admitting it, have no idea what price will do next. They do these vertical spreads that limit risk, but also limit profit, which is essentially just taking a directional bet with a stop and target.
I'm no options expert, but most of them will use fancy words to convince others they don't have a clue, but the simple answer I believe is like I state above. If you truly were a good trader, trading the outrights would be far more profitable. Its incredibly difficult, so you can probably use options with fancy math modelling that confuse most other people, but this is how you're making money, by confusing others who don't understand the math too well.
EDIT: accidentaly said futures above where I meant to say options
I'm no options expert, but most of them will use fancy words to convince others they don't have a clue, but the simple answer I believe is like I state above. If you truly were a good trader, trading the outrights would be far more profitable. Its incredibly difficult, so you can probably use options with fancy math modelling that confuse most other people, but this is how you're making money, by confusing others who don't understand the math too well.
EDIT: accidentaly said futures above where I meant to say options
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Well there you go, your risk is the timing if it isn't the price level, but its all still the same risk nevertheless of never being sure.
Its the same thing as taking a long in your example, and knowing when to exit the long and go short if you are wrong.
Careful, you might have @Maverick74 and @bone mad at you! LOL....
I got into it with them a while back, hey.. it might have even been in your thread, about how I was suspect about fundamentals with reference to CL trading. They tried to make me feel stupid, saying I was just a retail trader with no access to real fundamental data or understanding, but they couldn't really provide even any trade stats to back up their fundamental analysis expertise or even provide one trade idea based on really good fundamentals.
I bet that if they actually provided us with some decent stats, we would see that their trades don't offer any better stats than what a technical trader can accomplish, and I bet that their use of options would also not prove any better at extracting profit from the market than the use of a stop and target.
I did not mean that I would tell fundamental traders to fuk off, I was just meaning the fundamentals of the market. I'm mad and bitter at the moment. I am mad at OPEC right now, People keep saying that OPEC is becoming less relevant to future price, but obviously they are still primary! Look at how Crude moves when the Saudi Oil Minister sneezes! Eeesh.
If you have a legitimate answer, why does it have to be through PM? Is it so complicated that it can't be typed out here? Even an overview would be fabulous to hear. I suggested an idea. Go long as he wants to, and yet buy some Puts in case it goes down instead. I'm sure you have a better advise, so why can't we all hear? How valuable of a resource is ET if nobody gets to read what you have to say?
Oh I agree with you the insanity of it all, but you're assuming that its moving because of what is said. You really have no idea why its moving, just like these guys have no idea either, no matter how many wells they reference to see how much they are pumping, etc.