Risk Management is the answer

[themickey]

I may have been hosting demons, but they were so subtle I couldn't tell.

If that were true about subtle demons, how can you be sure you're not believing a lie right this moment?
Same with trading, how do we know the choices we make are true? Well we don't until later.
Mostly the result of our choices are chance / luck, random.
When we win, most often we attribute that to skill, but much of it is chance.

 

[Wide Tailz]

Faith is Jesus is a lot like Soros' theory of reflexivity. By believing, your behavior changes. Was it the change in behavior due to psychology, or some supernatural spirit that effects the improvements seen later? And when good results come, do they also influence the beliefs to strengthen the effect?

Your point is well taken. In this country (USA) we are free to experiment with our belief systems, then move to whatever state, city and neighborhood we choose. And I hope you can see my point - that the results bear witness to the fruits of our thoughts, beliefs, and actions.

In my own case, 18 years of trying to make peace with my anger got nowhere. But the Lord wiped it all away and it has not come back for as many years.

And even Jesus told a parable about trading, which I am trying to live up to now. It made me realize how much of a coward I really am!

 

[ironchef]

If that were true about subtle demons, how can you be sure you're not believing a lie right this moment?
Same with trading, how do we know the choices we make are true? Well we don't until later.
Mostly the result of our choices are chance / luck, random.
When we win, most often we attribute that to skill, but much of it is chance.

Faith is Jesus is a lot like Soros' theory of reflexivity. By believing, your behavior changes. Was it the change in behavior due to psychology, or some supernatural spirit that effects the improvements seen later? And when good results come, do they also influence the beliefs to strengthen the effect?

Your point is well taken. In this country (USA) we are free to experiment with our belief systems, then move to whatever state, city and neighborhood we choose. And I hope you can see my point - that the results bear witness to the fruits of our thoughts, beliefs, and actions.

In my own case, 18 years of trying to make peace with my anger got nowhere. But the Lord wiped it all away and it has not come back for as many years.

And even Jesus told a parable about trading, which I am trying to live up to now. It made me realize how much of a coward I really am!

There is a lot of truth in what both of you said, be it trading or some life changing illness like cancer. At the moment we make a choice, we don't know. We can connect the dots only after the fact and see how that choice affects the outcome, our life.

It may still be governed by chance and probability but when we are at peace, are not angry about life, we make better choices.

 

[Wide Tailz]

Everyone enters this world with a death sentence on their head with an unknown execution date! So don't take everything (especially money) too seriously, because you will lose it all later.

But if I had to wager on the one thing that may be waiting for you on the other side, if there is such a thing, is the love you showed your fellow travelers while in this box. The one most outrageous commandment I ever tried to follow is to show love to enemies. What profit can there possibly be in that?

 

[RantaMin]

Everyone enters this world with a death sentence on their head with an unknown execution date! So don't take everything (especially money) too seriously, because you will lose it all later.

But if I had to wager on the one thing that may be waiting for you on the other side, if there is such a thing, is the love you showed your fellow travelers while in this box. The one most outrageous commandment I ever tried to follow is to show love to enemies. What profit can there possibly be in that?

Showing love to enemies is certainly challenging (

 

[RantaMin]

There is a lot of truth in what both of you said, be it trading or some life changing illness like cancer. At the moment we make a choice, we don't know. We can connect the dots only after the fact and see how that choice affects the outcome, our life.

It may still be governed by chance and probability but when we are at peace, are not angry about life, we make better choices.

Absolutely, hindsight gives us clarity

 

[ironchef]

Absolutely, hindsight gives us clarity

But can hindsight guides us to better decisions?

 

[deaddog]

But can hindsight guides us to better decisions?

 

[Wide Tailz]

One of the greatest risks is other people who influence your thinking.

And the ones who are doing well at this game tend to keep quiet.

Over and over again I've had to throw away old books, chart diagrams, articles and hints I found because they quit working after some time and gave me a false sense of security, leading to losses.

The only real profitable ideas I've ever found were seen alone, in the wild, basically when I wasn't even looking. They just happened to be there. And many of these little edges quit working after some years.

In the end the only edge is your own brain and its ability to stay ahead of the habits of everyone else. The biggest risk may just be a friend of yours who changes the way you think..........

 

[Wide Tailz]

The less I think about risk management and money management, the prettier my equity curve looks and closer it gets to straight 45 degrees.

Risk management and money management is bullshit.

I'm glad your hedging techniques are giving you a smooth ride through the latest trend change (dca in the indices does look like a 45 degree line if you just look at closed trades).

Here's a recent risk management exercise I had to do: