Lived there 5 years or so. My daughter was born there. Afterwards lived 13 years (my wife says so, I thought it was 12) in the Highlands of southern Mexico. A quaint colonial town San Cristobal De Las Casas, Chiapas, Mexico. Then to USA then back to Honduras for around 5 more years.
I spend time on ET to escape the reality of having to face a family health issue. I truly understand your pain with your daughter's passing.
Just curious, why Honduras?
Risk Management is the answer
- Thread starter Wide Tailz
- Start date
I normally kept things to myself but you are so generous and willing to share. Let me share with you my life's challenge.
Two and a half years ago, my dear wife was diagnosed with terminal lung cancer. Dr's prognosis was 6-12 months. I quit everything, quit ET to focus on her. Refused to give up after she failed treatment, signed her up for a clinical trial instead of hospice.
She got a lucky break, is still with us and her condition is stable, like buying a long call that is still ITM!
I came back to ET half a year ago to relieve a very stressful existence. ET is my relief valve because of folks like you sir.
If I could, I trade all the trading profits I accumulated for a few more years for her.
Take care.
Sorry to hear about your wife. I know exactly what you mean. We both dropped everything to focus on helping our daughter but the cancer had spread too far. MD Anderson in Houston could do nothing to help. The stress was almost too much to bear at times. But somehow we made it through and keep going. Hang in there and enjoy every moment with her. There certainly is more to life than our work, our ambitions, our goals. In the end what counts is our connections, relationships, to people and God. When we come into this world we came with nothing. When we leave we leave the same way.
We did everything we could to help our daughter. In the end nothing worked and we are left with memories. Cherished memories but sometimes even they hurt. It is difficult to explain.
Thank you.
Life is precious. Too often we take things for granted, don't appreciate what we have until it is too late.
If you get into a bad trade, the only path you can control is to get out. Anything else in life, you play the hand you're dealt.There is a hidden enemy in some of us, in our subconscious minds, goading us into giving our money away for no good reason. Some of us get married, some buy hot cars or planes, some give to questionable charities or join cults that take their ten percent, and some of us use fundamental analysis!
The only thing you can control is your path of escape. It is the first and last thing between you, temptation and destruction. Know your worst case plan and do nothing, absolutely nothing until you can do it with financial safety.
Why tight stop is important: It lets you live to fight another day.
In scalping 1 to 8 points in say ES several times during the day session using too tight of a SL will hurt you and you will lose. I find that a set point based on a monetary SL is a losing strategy for scalping. Therefore, I use a PA SL. Also when scalping R:R is usually not so great. Because a PA SL often requires a SL further away than ones profit target.
That said, often the actual SL (how much the market went against you plus 1 tick) before going in your favor and getting you out with a profit, does indeed render a good R:R.
For instance, say I determine that for a scalp to likely be successful and based upon current PA my SL needs to be 4 points away from my entry, I then place it there. but say my profit target is three points. This is my initial SL and initial PT. And it is upside down. However, when the market moves lets say it only gives me 1 point of adverse action and then immediately goes in my favor 3 points. I see momentum is good so I go for a bigger profit and get out with 6 points. So actual risks was 5 ticks. 1 point and one tick to trade through the SL and take me out, had I place a SL 1 point away. But since it only went 1 point against then reversed in my favor the trade actually renders me a decent R:R as opposed to my initial R:R.
I have been able to made tight SLs work in scalping. The market probes too much in either direction looking for fair price and for more transactions and traders. At least 70% of trades are done by algo..computers nowadays but those programs were written by humans so the human DNA / psychology, so to speak, are still there. The purpose of markets is to bring buyers and sellers together and to generate commissions and $$ for the exchanges and brokers. Much like a real estate broker makes his commission for bringing a buyer and a seller together.
Price will always eventually move where more transactions will take place and more traders will trade. Otherwise, there won't be a market. The chart show the pressures hence gives hints at probability.
When scalping I like to ask myself: what is the probability of price reaching my profit target before it will reach my SL? I look to the left on the chart to see PA and to determine the pressures. Then I can assign probability. I prefer a high win rate so I like high probability trades. When scalping.
That said, often the actual SL (how much the market went against you plus 1 tick) before going in your favor and getting you out with a profit, does indeed render a good R:R.
For instance, say I determine that for a scalp to likely be successful and based upon current PA my SL needs to be 4 points away from my entry, I then place it there. but say my profit target is three points. This is my initial SL and initial PT. And it is upside down. However, when the market moves lets say it only gives me 1 point of adverse action and then immediately goes in my favor 3 points. I see momentum is good so I go for a bigger profit and get out with 6 points. So actual risks was 5 ticks. 1 point and one tick to trade through the SL and take me out, had I place a SL 1 point away. But since it only went 1 point against then reversed in my favor the trade actually renders me a decent R:R as opposed to my initial R:R.
I have been able to made tight SLs work in scalping. The market probes too much in either direction looking for fair price and for more transactions and traders. At least 70% of trades are done by algo..computers nowadays but those programs were written by humans so the human DNA / psychology, so to speak, are still there. The purpose of markets is to bring buyers and sellers together and to generate commissions and $$ for the exchanges and brokers. Much like a real estate broker makes his commission for bringing a buyer and a seller together.
Price will always eventually move where more transactions will take place and more traders will trade. Otherwise, there won't be a market. The chart show the pressures hence gives hints at probability.
When scalping I like to ask myself: what is the probability of price reaching my profit target before it will reach my SL? I look to the left on the chart to see PA and to determine the pressures. Then I can assign probability. I prefer a high win rate so I like high probability trades. When scalping.
I said "I have been able to make tight SLs work in scalping" in my previous post. I typed that wrong. I mean't to say I HAVE NOT been able to make tight monetary SLs work in scalping. Instead I have found I have to use a PA SL for scalping and the often gets me upside down on R:R but also often get me good ACTUAL R:R as opposed to initial bad R:R. Just clarifying things.
The reason scalping often requieres a wider PA stop loss as opposed to a tight monetary SL is because no one can actually say where the market will go. We are dealing with probabilities and possibilities in scalping. There are too many variables..some known.. and some unknowable. Therefore, certainty is fleeting. A wider PA SL gives one's trades a "chance" of working. A tight one will bleed your account to death.
So why even have a SL? Well you have to protect yourself from an even or a move you thought was improbable but became reality.
So, what do I do when price is approaching my wider SL? I see that my premise for entering the trade was wrong. I have to exit! Then if price continues against my position that I had (like in a reversal or BO) then I jump back in with double or even triple my previous size as I must get in sync with the market pressures.
Why double or triple my previous losing size? Well I want to get back my loss as quickly as possible and not spend the rest of the session trying to get back to break even. On momentum I can get back the loss quickly and soon be printing money.
Do I ever get whipsawed doing such a thing? Yes, sometimes occasionally I do. But if it happens two or 3 times in a row I just likely need to shut down the computer for the day as I am not reading the market correctly, for one reason or the other.
If I lose and keep losing I just need to go fishing.
So why even have a SL? Well you have to protect yourself from an even or a move you thought was improbable but became reality.
So, what do I do when price is approaching my wider SL? I see that my premise for entering the trade was wrong. I have to exit! Then if price continues against my position that I had (like in a reversal or BO) then I jump back in with double or even triple my previous size as I must get in sync with the market pressures.
Why double or triple my previous losing size? Well I want to get back my loss as quickly as possible and not spend the rest of the session trying to get back to break even. On momentum I can get back the loss quickly and soon be printing money.
Do I ever get whipsawed doing such a thing? Yes, sometimes occasionally I do. But if it happens two or 3 times in a row I just likely need to shut down the computer for the day as I am not reading the market correctly, for one reason or the other.
If I lose and keep losing I just need to go fishing.
Risk management with stops is the public policy, but is there another way?
One famous trend follower mentioned he only bought when others began to think about selling, above the market where the momentum would be greatest for the lowest risk.....
I wonder what he was referring to?
One famous trend follower mentioned he only bought when others began to think about selling, above the market where the momentum would be greatest for the lowest risk.....
I wonder what he was referring to?
Attachments
Here is an example of scalping and averaging down this morning or scaling in to make it sounds nice.
Price in a sideway established TR. 80% of BO attempts top or bottom fail so odds favor shorting in top 1/4 bar 12:25 and adding bar 12:35 as it moves against me which I did. Then exited bar 13:05 (green triangles on big bear bar) as it moved down in my favor making money on my second entry and at least breaking even on my first entry.
Second trade at the bottom right. Long Entry bar 13:15 at bottom of TR. Exit one bar later bar 13:20 with a 3 point gain.Again betting on a FBO (failed BO of the bottom of the range). Did not scale in on this last scalp.
We been in TR over 50 bars. Odds favor a successful BO top or bottom so I am keen a being careful scaling in at this point. Looking more for a successful BO vs range trading.
Before anyone asks why didn't I trade all those other FBO attempts to the left in the TR? The answer is simple. I wasn't at the computer! I was busy doing other stuff. I didn't even have the computer on. But yes, there were many possible 1 to 4 point trades in this 50 bar or more sideways move. Trading "noise" as some pundits say and who strongly advise against it. Well give me so-called noise. I'll trade it as long as moves are wide enough or broad enough for at least a 1 point scalp.
Price in a sideway established TR. 80% of BO attempts top or bottom fail so odds favor shorting in top 1/4 bar 12:25 and adding bar 12:35 as it moves against me which I did. Then exited bar 13:05 (green triangles on big bear bar) as it moved down in my favor making money on my second entry and at least breaking even on my first entry.
Second trade at the bottom right. Long Entry bar 13:15 at bottom of TR. Exit one bar later bar 13:20 with a 3 point gain.Again betting on a FBO (failed BO of the bottom of the range). Did not scale in on this last scalp.
We been in TR over 50 bars. Odds favor a successful BO top or bottom so I am keen a being careful scaling in at this point. Looking more for a successful BO vs range trading.
Before anyone asks why didn't I trade all those other FBO attempts to the left in the TR? The answer is simple. I wasn't at the computer! I was busy doing other stuff. I didn't even have the computer on. But yes, there were many possible 1 to 4 point trades in this 50 bar or more sideways move. Trading "noise" as some pundits say and who strongly advise against it. Well give me so-called noise. I'll trade it as long as moves are wide enough or broad enough for at least a 1 point scalp.