Years ago I got curious about trading systems and did a lot of backtesting.
There were two ways to kill a profitable system (gradually or all at once, unexpectedly):
1. Stops too tight
2. Averaging down
1) yes, many traders bleed to death with too tight of stoplosses.
2) averaging down or scaling in to be PC Lol is a viable strategy for a scalper. At least it is for myself. But it should only be done when context is right. In a bull trend never average down short i.e. as to a losing short in a bull trend. However, in that scenario I will average down long. Conversely never average down long in a bear trend. That is, never add to a losing long position in a bear trend. However, I will average down short in a bear trend. That is, I will add to a losing short position in a bear trend.
In an established trading range (20 or more bars sideways movement) I will add to a losing short position in the top 1/3 to top 1/4 of the TR. At the bottom of the TR I will scale in long adding to a losing long position. Why? 80% of BO attempts top or bottom of a TR fail. Odds favor a bounce for a scalp in both scenarios after taking a position.
Traders get in trouble averaging down (adding to a losing position) because they don’t trade price action. They don’t understand momentum. They don’t understand the cycles a market goes through. They don’t understand how the market “probes” looking for more traders and more transactions. Looking for taking profits. Looking for when bulls will be taking profits and bears exiting with losses and how that created more momentum. For a scalper! Looking how and when bears take profits and losing longs exit creating momentum for bears. That is what pullbacks, and pauses, in PA is all about and why they show up on a chart.
3) Doubling and tripling up. Eventually a BO will succeed in a TR or a reversal in a trend.
And if I have a position on and it is losing I have to dump it immediately double or triple up MY PREVIOUS position size and reverse direction, to be in sync with the successful BO. In a jiffy I have recovered my loss and printing profit. Many traders cannot make themselves do that. They get married to their position. They just keep averaging down and averaging down hoping…pleading…yelling….. But the market hears nary a word…nary a scream…
To average down successfully one has to hold their position lightly and be ready ..johnny on the spot…to file a very quick and sudden divorce and before the ink dries get married again to the correct bride. If you catch my drift. I don’t advocate divorce except in trading..LOL.
Today is my 46 year anniversary. Went out last night and had a good ribeye with the wife at Big Mike's Steakhouse. Fried shrimp from gulf …no imported stuff. No Ipad with me. No phone. Just the wife and myself. She loves that. A restaurant full of people. Most very happy even though the wait to get seated for some, was 1 to 2 hours.