Risk Management for SPX/ES trading system

C

codyrca

I have been working on trading system the looks for a trading signal based on certain conditions occurring with the SPX Index. When a signal is hit an ES futures trade is placed.

I have back tested the strategy using SPX data for 15 years and have been live trading for about 6 months. So far the returns have been great, but I need some help with risk management.

From my testing I have found that an optimal stop loss is a 60 bps move in SPX opposite to the trade direction. The problem I am having is ES is more volatile that SPX and if I use the 60 bps stop, I get stopped out of a trade that ultimately ends up being a win.

I have considered hedging with VIX options as well as basing my ES stop off the SPX.

I would appreciate any help

Thanks!
Cody
 
codyrca said:
I have been working on trading system the looks for a trading signal based on certain conditions occurring with the SPX Index. When a signal is hit an ES futures trade is placed.

I have back tested the strategy using SPX data for 15 years and have been live trading for about 6 months. So far the returns have been great, but I need some help with risk management.

From my testing I have found that an optimal stop loss is a 60 bps move in SPX opposite to the trade direction. The problem I am having is ES is more volatile that SPX and if I use the 60 bps stop, I get stopped out of a trade that ultimately ends up being a win.

I have considered hedging with VIX options as well as basing my ES stop off the SPX.

I would appreciate any help

Thanks!
Cody
More...

Hey Cody,

Out of curiosity, why did you design your system based upon SPX Index instead of based upon Emini ES futures...

Was it a historical data issue as in you didn't have any historical data for the Emini ES futures but you had lots of historical data for the SPX Index (very common situation for backtesters and system designers).
 
The lack of futures data was originally the motivation. However I was able to obtain about 3 years of futures data and when I did some analysis, I found that the SPX produced a correct signal more often.
 
It typically has a larger spread between high and low for a day. For example, today the ES has a 25 point spread, vs SPX with 23 point spread.
 
Remember that the SPX reflects a live index, while the front-month ES quote is a futures contract carry -- down 7.5 points when it becomes the front month contract, but down 0.0 at expiration. Thus, every 3 months, you'd have a "difference" created, which would then diminish to zero, then pop again.
 
codyrca said:
I have been working on trading system the looks for a trading signal based on certain conditions occurring with the SPX Index. When a signal is hit an ES futures trade is placed.

I have back tested the strategy using SPX data for 15 years and have been live trading for about 6 months. So far the returns have been great, but I need some help with risk management.

From my testing I have found that an optimal stop loss is a 60 bps move in SPX opposite to the trade direction. The problem I am having is ES is more volatile that SPX and if I use the 60 bps stop, I get stopped out of a trade that ultimately ends up being a win.

I have considered hedging with VIX options as well as basing my ES stop off the SPX.

I would appreciate any help

Thanks!
Cody
More...

If i were trading in the ES contract, I would stick with ES all the way. SPX is based on the cash index and only refreshes every 15 seconds. It is also not a tradeable price. The bid/ask in ES is.

1245
 
Sergio77 said:
What does he mean by 60 bps in ES? IMO bps are used in bonds. Ticks or points are used in futures.
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He used phrase bps (sometimes seen in bonds and index) for SPX index. Thus, he didn't use it in reference to Emini ES futures.

Krzysztof said:
If You could connect Your trading entry/exit points to SPX and actual trades to ES, wouldn't that resolve Your problem?
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Some traders do this but run into problems as noted by 1245 concerning the data refresh duration in SPX by most data vendors although I'm not sure if this is an issue with the higher end data vendors.
 
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