"Risk is not high, it is extreme."

fkbsuhites · Sep 22, 2009

Market goes up more often than it goes down. Exponential gains buying as opposed to a maximum 100% gain going down.

Trade Long and Trade Smaller as the trend continues higher.

The economy has bottomed.

Doom and gloom means more money for bailouts and better chance for the opposite party politicians to get in and screw around.

Selling doom and gloom serves powerful vested interests

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If you are a foreigner jump in and buy as much US real estate as you can gorge yourself on. A double play on USD appreciation and real estate gains.

Clubber Lang · Sep 22, 2009

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

Risk is not high, it is extreme.

Fund managers that trail their benchmark are out of jobs next year.

We will collapse again, but not until Wall st. makes sure their massive 2009 bonuses are secure.

JamesVU2000 · Sep 22, 2009

The governments around the world and the central banks are 100 PERCENT TOTALLY OUT OF CONTROL. The entire global economy is like the matrix. Hard to tell if its real or not because all the interventions, lies, bailouts, etc.
If anything the world is in probably even riskier territory.

Lawrence Chan · Sep 22, 2009

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I'm trying to hang on because I have a fractal much like the set-up going into Feb, 27, 2007.

Pabst,

Re the SPX position ... long call short underlying to increase holding strength.

Good luck!

Lawrence Chan · Sep 22, 2009

Quote from Clubber Lang:

Fund managers that trail their benchmark are out of jobs next year.

We will collapse again, but not until Wall st. makes sure their massive 2009 bonuses are secure.

Depends.

1. Mkt shock can easily take SPX down to 900 area within days. e.g. China announces no more buying of US treasuries

2. USD crashes. As oppose to what most people "think", if you are into study of history, then next are the US bonds and US stock mkt.

p.s. Do you guys notice that HK is taking back all its gold from London? And that China has adviced all Asian countries to keep gold reserve in Asian? Think about what that really implies.

Q12 · Sep 22, 2009

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Pabst,

Re the SPX position ... long call short underlying to increase holding strength.

Good luck!

Or just buy some puts... it's cheaper and achieves the same thing

Bigpipn · Sep 22, 2009

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Depends.

1. Mkt shock can easily take SPX down to 900 area within days. e.g. China announces no more buying of US treasuries

2. USD crashes. As oppose to what most people "think", if you are into study of history, then next are the US bonds and US stock mkt.

p.s. Do you guys notice that HK is taking back all its gold from London? And that China has adviced all Asian countries to keep gold reserve in Asian? Think about what that really implies.

Then JPM hits the gold futures market with 10k lot order at the offer repeatedly crashing it to 750 in seconds just like they just did to all the FX automated systems who trade Eur/Chf scalpers. That was the most blatant manipulation I have ever seen. All Eur/chf channel traders triggered a buy there and they immediately blew out the stops. LOL..

If too much size takes on a position "they" oppose, they'll take you down. It's the babyboomers, they have learned how to control an entire system with a click of a mouse. This entire system is toast. Soon.

Mvic · Sep 22, 2009

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I hate to say this bro but I even used you as an indicator.

Hopefully you know I think you're super bright (and a great guy) BUT that doesn't mean you can't be wrong. So when you posted last week and mentioned you were long it got me bearish. Not because I consider you a fade-far from it. I just deduced by virtue of you bragging you were long-after a bit of absence from posting on ET while you were initially stuck short - that perhaps your exuberance was a sign of topping.

Well, looks like my loss is your gain!

That's fair enough (thanks for the kind words, the respect is mutual) and as I mentioned in my posts I freely admitted that I was on TILT as I too had been stung on the short side (was long SRS and short regional banks due to CRE concerns which seem not to matter). Or maybe it wasn't so much the loss on the shorts which really wasn't that significant but more that I had missed yet another big rally. As you know there is a tendency to over-leverage when you have been wrong and I succumbed to that, this time I got lucky, but it is no way to trade and I quickly pared my position and I only have 2% of my original long position open (i was targeting 1060). That this market is going to have its day of reckoning is not in doubt in my mind and perhaps this is the start of it with the Fed's noises about drawing down liquidity and running up against the debt ceiling in the next month and a half, they may not have the ammo to keep all the balls up in the air and one dropped ball here could be dangerous.

trefoil · Sep 22, 2009

For the 1st time in a real long time, I'm getting the itch to play outside my usual sandbox.
If the VIX stays south of its 5 day MA and/or the 5 day MA keeps moving south, on a substantial blip up between now and EOM I'll probably initiate some sort of short on IWM, the ETF for the Russell 2k. More volatile than the SPX, and its gone up nicely in this rally since March.
We're definitely overextended, and a nice little pullback might be in order. We're in window-dressing time and its not only end of month, it's end of quarter, so a ramp to truly absurd heights might be in the cards. It's on that kind of ramp that I'd do a short. The Rus 2k is a natural for this kind of ramp because it of course features lots of illiquid stuff that can be moved without too much trouble.
Might be a trade that lasts for a bit.

fkbsuhites · Sep 22, 2009

The USD - Crude oil peg effectively exports domestic inflation to the growing economies. By default USD is still the global reserve currency.

USD will bottom out next year. Everyone is inflating, lesser of all evils.

Yes, buy gold. Not derivatives, buy the physical and store at home.

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Depends.

1. Mkt shock can easily take SPX down to 900 area within days. e.g. China announces no more buying of US treasuries

2. USD crashes. As oppose to what most people "think", if you are into study of history, then next are the US bonds and US stock mkt.

p.s. Do you guys notice that HK is taking back all its gold from London? And that China has adviced all Asian countries to keep gold reserve in Asian? Think about what that really implies.