No, do not short. Buy the puts instead. If you are a gambling man, then read on. If you are careful technician, then stop reading.
I have *guarded* confidence that this is going back to $83 and here is why. The 50 week moving average is at $83 and the chart appears to be forming a head&shoulders. All this tells me that this would make a great short.
HOWEVER, this stock is hugely popular with the general public, institutions and analysts. Due to its popularity, they could easily reverse the trend if they so wanted. Thats why I heavily emphasize the word *guarded*.
Most everyone is going to hold into the New Year and then sell so they can book profits ahead of an expected recession/pullback in the economy and not have to pay taxes for 16 months on the gain.
While the Blackberry device is popular, most corporations are pulling back their spending expecting a downturn in the economy. They wont be spending their extra cash on Blackberry devices if they dont absolutely have to. There are also several competing devices that seem more palatable then the Blackberry.
I work for one of the ten largest corporations in the world by market capitalization. We are pulling back our spending in most every department in anticipation of the global recession.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RIMM&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p58369272969
There does appear to be a hanging man on the technical chart. The selloff from 142 to 129 is on good volume. If Rimm does not turn around at this point (its 10 percent off its high), then it will keep going. At some point it will rise again to make the next shoulder of the head n shoulders and go back to its 50 week moving average.
If you want me to come to an opinion right now, I would say that it is going back to under 100 in a few months time.
Do not short as popularity of the stock might easily reverse the trend. Buy the puts.