Right time to buy puts for directional trade..

D

Dharmakaya

I don´t expect anyone to reveal their secrets of course.

But i have been thinking about this. Have not looked to deeply into options and when implied vol declines.
You think puts are better because of the increase in vol when the market declines?

Assuming we are approcahing a level where the market has turned down before. When it breaks up through that level will it change imp vol more in % than otherwise? It´s quite common with false breakouts... :)
 
Quote from Dharmakaya:

I don´t expect anyone to reveal their secrets of course.

I stole a crayon in the 2nd grade! There, I finally told someone!


But i have been thinking about this. Have not looked to deeply into options and when implied vol declines. You think puts are better because of the increase in vol when the market declines?

Assuming we are approcahing a level where the market has turned down before. When it breaks up through that level will it change imp vol more in % than otherwise? It´s quite common with false breakouts.

While volatility is certainly a factor in option pricing/trading, it's not as important as getting the direction right if you're buying options (ignoring pr earnings/FDA announcements, etc.). Money management is probably more imp't as well.
More...
 
"While volatility is certainly a factor in option pricing/trading, it's not as important as getting the direction right if you're buying options (ignoring pr earnings/FDA announcements, etc.). Money management is probably more imp't as well."

+1. Re IV after breakout to new high on UL, sometimes IV won't continue falling even when the market continues to rise which MIGHT mean the market is telling you it is near a top or at the least vol is at a bottom.

Re entry, it's best to have a specific plan (i.e. buy puts on SPX if it goes below X price stop is placed 2 atr above entry) as opposed to just arbitrarily calling a top saying "the market will go down now b/c i think it will". It's always better to wait for confirmation before entering a trade. Trust me on this one. I've shorted (bought puts) on stocks/etfs before that seemed way too extended only to have them go up more.
 
I agree with what has been posted. If you are buying options make sure you buy something deep in the money with at least a 75-80 delta. That way you have more intrinsic value of the option. I look at this just as much as what volatility is. I find doing directional plays too I trade a little longer term.

Say for instance I think the market is going down now, I would buy my put option on a huge up day when volatility is cheaper. I would then buy a June or July option deep in the money so I have time for my option play to work. I would add additional puts to my position as the market moved in my favor.

You need a plan and how much you look to make and how much you are willing to loose. Risk Reward...... Personally I like to hang around the 20 and 50 day moving averages for my setups if I can for direction. That way I know I have some resistance there for what ever direction I am going.

:cool:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top