Righhhhhht ..."trade deal with China is very close" yepppp sure it is.

Duzo. Quotes the rising dollar. Brilliant. The guy can't balance a checkbook. What happens to your exports under a declining currency? Take a shot. Where's the US trade deficit against China?
 
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destriero said:
Duzo. Quotes the rising dollar. Brilliant. The guy can't balance a checkbook. What happens to your exports under a declining currency? Take a shot. Where's the US trade deficit against China?
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you are so hopeless.

the PBOC usually defends the RMB to track the USD (as part of a basket)... the RMB fall was due to the trade war... long term trend or day to day reaction to trade war news... you'd be blind not to see this.

trade deficit is due to the front loading in anticipation of the additional tariff... once the front loading is done, you can see the last quarter with significant drop in Chinese exports.
 
Front loaded! The Chinese are currency manipulators... nooooo! And the result is?

D4D057F2-E49F-440A-BBE0-CAE42E65A775.png
 
vanzandt said:
Why have a trade deal when you can just Tweet something about it "being very close" or "incredible progress is being made" once or twice a week that results in a perpetual and unending market rise?


CNBC: Larry, we know you spoke with Beijing, what are the Chinese saying?"

Kudlow: "They've agreed to meet at Mar-a-Lago in January.

S&P:
View attachment 213898


So where would we be if Trump hadn't started all this 2 years ago...? At least 30K on the Dow right? Maybe more? What's the endgame here? The trade war ends and we climb another 20% on air?
... We're goin' down.
A blind man can see it coming. Its a joke.
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Actually, with the news, a lot of it is baked in. Who does not think the Chinese will continue to stonewall and not even sign the Phase 1 of US-China trade deal? This is a baby step mind you. The serious issues are in Phase 2. They lowered expectations because of it but, actually, China not signing Phase 1 of the US-China trade deal is a good thing. It would force President Donald Trump to exert maximum pain on China. 50% tariffs on ALL Chinese goods will have the effect of destroying the Chinese economy and hamstring the Chinese funding their expansion of the capability to develop advanced fighter jets and missiles to threaten US ships. This would be a double win for the US. Decoupling the US economy would be pretty easy with most Chinese goods also, produced by other Asian companies in Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, India, etc. US can then, wait out the Chinese to finally come around to signing a fair trade deal or make decoupling the US economy from China a permanent thing.
 
Very close, in a Russia and China join forces and wipe out the USA kinda WW3 way, then yes.

Look at the increase in military spending for both, there not doing that for no reason and modernization of tanks and planes.
 
destriero said:
Front loaded! The Chinese are currency manipulators... nooooo! And the result is?...
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The result is that America loves to buy the cheep shit from China. They are addicts of the low-cost stuff you throw away at the end of their 2 month life-cycle, because they are too cheep to NOT buy. And we Americans LOVE to spend.
 
The fact that the US-China trade deficit hit records during the 18 months of the trade war is proof that tariffs are a disastrous policy for the US. Infinite productivity. The ability to devalue at will.

It fell in Nov to 52.5B due to the oil surplus.

2019 will be another record year.
 
If it's anything like the "deal" with Canada and Mexico we'll be just slightly worse off than we were before all these tariffs and uncertainty, of course that is if you ignore all the value destruction caused by the tariffs and uncertainty. Nothing like breaking something and then expecting some kind of reward for mostly putting it back how it was before:banghead:
 
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