Riddles

Quote from darkhorse:

next time i order penguin i'll have a glass of Blue Nun on the side.

here's a relatively easy one:

You are screened for a disease that strikes one out of every 500 people.

The screening test has a false positive rate of 5%.

If you test positive, what is the actual probability of your having the disease?

There is a 4% chance you have the disease with the information you given.
 
Quote from Turok:

>If the lock had started at "empty" the displacement
>of a vessel is critical.

I disagree...and to prove my point (that I will make later) I will ask you to solve the same problem assuming that both vessels are dropped in via crane to sit on the bottom of a drained and dry lock.

JB

Are you a parent? If so, imagine your bath tub 3/4 full of water.

Now, if your kid, who weighs 30# climbs into the tub, how far up the side of the tub will the water rise? Mark it.

Take the kid out, and you climb in, is the water at the same level?

Higher? Lower?

Its the same concept.

assuming that both vessels are dropped in via crane to sit on the bottom of a drained and dry lock.

We're talking water displacement, right? In other words, water has to be involved, after the vessels are placed into the lock
 
>Now, if your kid, who weighs 30# climbs into the tub,
>how far up the side of the tub will the water rise?
>Mark it.

>Take the kid out, and you climb in, is the water at the
>same level?

>Higher? Lower?

It can't yet be determined and to prove my point (that I will make later) I will ask you to solve the first problem assuming that both vessels are dropped in via crane to sit on the bottom of a drained and dry lock.

JB
 
I say 95% and you say 4%. This will be interesting.

I say it matters not a whit how many people the disease strikes or what percentate/ratio of the population it strikes. If you return a positive on a test that has been determined to be 95% accurate (with 5% false positive) then there is a 95% chance that you have the disease.

Now, I've been wrong before on these sorts of things so I'll be interested in others responses.

JB

Quote from aphexcoil:

There is a 4% chance you have the disease with the information you given.
 
Quote from Turok:

[B
It can't yet be determined and to prove my point (that I will make later) I will ask you to solve the first problem assuming that both vessels are dropped in via crane to sit on the bottom of a drained and dry lock.

JB [/B]

It seems like a little trickery is at foot.
Dropped, drained, and dry, are not conducive words to figuring out displacement.

If your implying that a smashed up boat will not float, with or without water, I'll not argue your point.

Otherwise, my explanation stands.
 
For the moment, all I am asking is for you to solve YOUR riddle:

>When a ship displacing 500T, pulls into a lock, and
>it takes 700,000 cubic meters of water to lift it 30ft

>How many cubic meters of water will it take to lift a
>boat displacing 15T the same height, in the same lock?

..with YOUR added criteria:

>If the lock had started at "empty" the displacement
>of a vessel is critical.

No trickery involved.

JB

Quote from sulong:

It seems like a little trickery is at foot.
Dropped, drained, and dry, are not conducive words to figuring out displacement.

If your implying that a smashed up boat will not float, with or without water, I'll not argue your point.

Otherwise, my explanation stands.
 
Quote from Turok:

For the moment, all I am asking is for you to solve YOUR riddle:

>When a ship displacing 500T, pulls into a lock, and
>it takes 700,000 cubic meters of water to lift it 30ft

>How many cubic meters of water will it take to lift a
>boat displacing 15T the same height, in the same lock?

..with YOUR added criteria:

>If the lock had started at "empty" the displacement
>of a vessel is critical.

No trickery involved.

JB

The first part, the answer is the same for both vessels.

The second part, I've got no Idea what the exact answer is, I am no math wizard.

But speaking generically, it will take only 1/3rd of the water to float the 500t vessel as took to float the 15t vessel.

Edit; to get both vessels the same height.
 
>The second part, I've got no Idea what the exact
>answer is, I am no math wizard.

That's a fair answer...I'm not either.

>But speaking generically, it will take only 1/3rd
>of the water to float the 500t vessel as took to
>float the 15t vessel.

Would it surprise you if I could prove that the opposite is also true?

JB


Quote from sulong:

The first part, the answer is the same for both vessels.

The second part, I've got no Idea what the exact answer is, I am no math wizard.

But speaking generically, it will take only 1/3rd of the water to float the 500t vessel as took to float the 15t vessel.
 
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