Quote from piezoe:
Actually, it's my understanding that LTCM's problem was not so much that mean reversion stopped working, but rather that it took too long to work. What their experience really showed was the danger of using too much leverage in the face of uncertainty. Had they had the capital reserve to hang on as the market moved against them they would have survived, as they were correct in what would eventually happen, but incorrect about how long it would take and what would happen in the meantime. In fact, they may have even dismissed what did happen as being so improbable that it was of no concern. The were ruined because the market remained "irrational" longer than they could stay solvent.
Arrogance and sophistry blend so nicely together. If someone must lose in the markets, who else would you rather that it be?Quote from taowave:
...Not only was I was talked down to,but anything I said,which was not earth shattering ,was completely ignored.I can only tell you that 400 million dollars later,they still feel their method was 100% correct,and the risk managers closed them out too early.Neiderhoffer and LCTM are models for this sort of behavior,and I doubt they will ever learn from their folly...

Six of one, half dozen of the other. The beauty part is that they were so confident of the turn before it actually happened and continued levering themselves in the face of contradictory evidence. As I noted earlier, if there is anyone who actually deserves to lose...Quote from piezoe:
Actually, it's my understanding that LTCM's problem was not so much that mean reversion stopped working, but rather that it took too long to work...
Quote from Thunderdog:
Arrogance and sophistry blend so nicely together. If someone must lose in the markets, who else would you rather that it be?![]()
Quote from Thunderdog:
Six of one, half dozen of the other. The beauty part is that they were so confident of the turn before it actually happened and continued levering themselves in the face of contradictory evidence. As I noted earlier, if there is anyone who actually deserves to lose...
The Fed has learned nothing. It continues to be a supplier to all-or-nothing leverage junkies, replenishing them with copious quantities of moral hazard whenever required.

I read Lowenstein's book, yes, but I have also read about LTCM elsewhere, relying on a number of different sources. Most recently, I read about it in Richard Bookstaber's A Demon of Our Own Design: Markets, Hedge Funds, and the Perils of Financial Innovation:Quote from marketsurfer:
another expert from reading lowensteins book.
just what the world needs now.
surf![]()
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