Rich and Taleb agree.....

[Trend Following]

Quote from marketsurfer:

smart, i concur.

makes sense to me.... trend followers would call rogers a top/bottom picker. much like i have been trying to do, on a shorter term albeit, although longer than most here.

surf

A few years back I asked Rogers if he would like a copy of my first book. His brief response:

Quote from Jim Rogers:

Thanks. Sure, but I am not a trend follower as you probably know.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Thunderdog:

You are a pathetic fool. An insinuation to organized crime? Are you rea

Your last paragraph is utterly bizarre. You are suggesting that LW has a "reasonable" explanation for the "unsavory" things he did in his past? Did you actually read what you wrote before you posted it?!

im not disputing that LW may have unsavory things in his past.

what exactly is the issue here?

you will not go to the source and obtain information on the background of the situation, how it developed, and how it was solved. your agenda keeps you from seeing the full truth, as you lien on what supports your side--- i know BOTH SIDES--- and based on that happen to believe lw after a careful weighing of the evidence.

leave et forever, that sounds like im going to hold my breath and die if i don't get my way..... seriously ridiculous.

surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Trend Following:

A few years back I asked Rogers if he would like a copy of my first book. His brief response:

funny! some background on my interview--- he was super nice to me previous to the chat, inviting me to his house, etc. . then the day of the interview, he was super edgey and uptight-- i had to be be very cautious with my questions as it felt he was going to end the interview any minute.-- so i didn't ask any hard questions.

furthermore, he did the interview while running on a treadmill in his home gym!!

surf

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from marketsurfer:

...leave et forever, that sounds like im going to hold my breath and die if i don't get my way..... seriously ridiculous.

surf

So it's true. You really are contextually challenged. I offer to essentially put my money where my mouth is, and you find yet another way of intentionally misunderstanding, and not following through to validate the claim you previously disputed. Does "integrity" mean anything at all to you?

 

[sandhuks]

Quote from marketsurfer:

TA guru J7HN B8LLINGER is in the group, as well as other TA luminaries, WTF are you talking about?

it's only old wives tales , market hubris, and untestable ideas that is dismissed as garbage.

surf

The group may be crowded by TA gurus but the true disciples of the "Chair" seem to be falling over each other trying to debunk TA as "art" and "subjective" while cooking up complex arguments that "counting" is what matters and it can only apply to non pedestrian indicators like - musical notes,cathedrals and lately tree rings !!
Maybe applying the formidable "scientific" testing to even a lowly price MA would show better predictive results ..but then what are we doing different?
Is TA by yr definition just visual inspection, cannot involve maths/testing?

 

[Maverick1]

Quote from sandhuks:

The group may be crowded by TA gurus but the true disciples of the "Chair" seem to be falling over each other trying to debunk TA as "art" and "subjective" while cooking up complex arguments that "counting" is what matters and it can only apply to non pedestrian indicators like - musical notes,cathedrals and lately tree rings !!
Maybe applying the formidable "scientific" testing to even a lowly price MA would show better predictive results ..but then what are we doing different?
Is TA by yr definition just visual inspection, cannot involve maths/testing?

VN's site looks very cult-like to me, with the members trying hard to imitate their guru. The shallowness of the thinking displayed in their posts and their use of elementary statistics to tackle the market is truly quite an amusing sight. I visit the site from time to time for entertainment purposes only. Some of the members should seriously consider poetry, or the theater for their creative outlets.

 

[ronblack]

Quote from oddiduro:

In short, this is a pretty good admission that trends only become trends after the fact.

Absolutely, otherwise all traders would be very rich.

This is a link to an article by Michael Harris in Fidelity archives that I think is a good read on this subject:

http://personal.fidelity.com/myfidelity/atn/archives/august2003.html

He first explains why it is so difficult to identify and follow trends. Then, he suggests a method of breaking up a trend into short term sub-trends that can be timed using price patterns. Actually, the patterns break up the trend, not you. I think this is a superb way of dealing with randomness that can avoid big drawdown.

Ron

 

[Hombre]

Quote from oddiduro:



In short, this is a pretty good admission that trends only become trends after the fact. The only thing any trader can really do with any indicator is to follow price and hope that it is directional long enough to profit.

What say ye, ET?

Best Regards
Oddi

I think that you are , wrongly, assuming that he is actually saying that . I can see trends that are in existence right now in different time frames. When you just look at charts objectively you will see them too.

 

[infolode]

Quote from sandhuks:

The group may be crowded by TA gurus but the true disciples of the "Chair" seem to be falling over each other trying to debunk TA as "art" and "subjective" while cooking up complex arguments that "counting" is what matters and it can only apply to non pedestrian indicators like - musical notes,cathedrals and lately tree rings !!
Maybe applying the formidable "scientific" testing to even a lowly price MA would show better predictive results ..but then what are we doing different?
Is TA by yr definition just visual inspection, cannot involve maths/testing?

I think ultimately we all have the same goal here and in any arena be it math,science,sports,music, art etc you have steadfast proponents of various methods. At times, it seems, with a bit of intensity. Why, because for them it works, or maybe more to the point because it didn't.

I think everything has a beginning and an end yet everything is infinite in the grand scheme. I don't believe anything is random yet I can't quantify certain energies by measurement of time and space. That's not to say they don't exist or adhere to universal laws or my perception of what those laws are.

Some things move so slowly they appear to never move at all. By the same token some thing move so rapidly they also appear to never move. With the naked eye as my only measure I'd be wrong in proclaiming static, but with the proper tool(s) I could discover indeed dynamic. From there I could create a means by to measure and observe.

Pythagorean/Neutonian as that may appear.

 

[Tracy McGreedy]

Ha. Jim calls himself the "worst trader in the world".

Quote from Trend Following:

A few years back I asked Rogers if he would like a copy of my first book. His brief response: