Rich and Taleb agree.....

Quote from marketsurfer:

obviously, your edge is not in the entries, right??

surf
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That's correct, actually it's the least of my concerns, dependent upon the timeframe I'm trading.

I trade several instruments in different time-sets and within each time-set I observe different timeframes for confirmation.

Start of the day I'll look at weekly, daily, hourly bar chart for perspective. I already know them well but I examine them anyway. I keep a one year line chart open for perspective. I refer to a SPY chart every fifteen minutes without fail. I mostly trade off a 4 min barchart with ES, ER, YM . I use angles and measured moves that I update daily and trade the same stocks so I know their nature and how they "act."

I know the calander but watch no commentary from news. EOD analysis is extensive at times, trading I keep simple and relaxed.

I don't trade everyday but I watch the markets everyday.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

first, i don't believe you about contacting the attorney--first they wouldnt comment to you--- get real!

if im wrong---whats the persons name?


being that these traders in VN's stable were in school or just out of school and this was their first real experience in the market shatters your who taught who suggestion.

i guess not everyone can learn from VN's style, thats fine with me. i agree its unusal and different, but wisdom awaits those who take the time.

surf
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Dave,

I do not lie. (My earlier and ugly exchange in your journal thread with JimmyJam stemmed from my feelings of utter repugnance towards lying.) I understand if you do not believe me, but I assure you that I am telling you the truth. I spoke with an enforcement attorney. I do not recall his name. It took a bit of doing getting him, speaking to the receptionist who answered the call. I was sent the documents I had referred to in our earlier exchange. I have them in my possession, and in the earlier thread, I wrote what he told me about where someone can access those documents, specifically,

"...anyone could get the full text by going to a local library and looking at the annual NFA Manual published by Warren Gorham Lamont Publishing. Although annual publication of this manual ceased in 1993, you will be able to find the Conclusion in question by consulting the appropriate year. Remember, the incident in question occurred in 1987, but dragged on to 1990 with the appeals process. Therefore, you may wish to check the manuals for that entire period."

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...ost+carefully+and+in+its+entirety#post1007920

I will not e-mail those documents to you. You can access them yourself if you really cared about the truth and exercised at least a modicum of healthy skepticism.

We have disagreed about many things. I do not lie to support my views. If I felt the need to embellish, then I would be better served by changing those views.

Regardless, believe what you will.

As for the "wisdom that awaits those who take the time," how is your trading faring since you have become enamored of VN, as compared to beforehand?

P.S. The "who taught whom" reference was a bit of sarcasm on my part, since it is my understanding that those other traders are performing at a level superior to that of VN. Surely you understood that.
 
Quote from ProfitTakgFool:

infolode, study statistics. Even a random data set will revert to the mean but it may take some trial and error. You can overcome this problem if you manage your account wisely. The farther the data moves from the mean the higher the probabilty it will revert to the mean. And, the more volume that goes into the move away from the mean the higher the probability price will revert back to the mean.

Have you ever seen a washout strong volume bottom retrace 50% (or more) of the move on light up volume? How is this possible? Because sellers are GONE. Most of the volume occurs at the tops and bottoms of the market. Watch that volume!
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To further this discussion, I have to suggest that I think LTCM tried this, and the results are in the financial history books now. Mean reversion works until it doesn't. What I mean to say is, mean reversion stategies work very well until the explosion in directional price movement that MUST come sooner or later. Taleb would call the catalyst of this unexpected explosion a black swan.


Best Regards
Oddi
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

Dave,

I do not lie. (My earlier and ugly exchange in your journal thread with JimmyJam stemmed from my feelings of utter repugnance towards lying.) I understand if you do not believe me, but I assure you that I am telling you the truth. I spoke with an enforcement attorney. I do not recall his name. It took a bit of doing getting him, speaking to the receptionist who answered the call. I was sent the documents I had referred to in our earlier exchange. I have them in my possession, and in the earlier thread, I wrote what he told me about where someone can access those documents, specifically,

"...anyone could get the full text by going to a local library and looking at the annual NFA Manual published by Warren Gorham Lamont Publishing. Although annual publication of this manual ceased in 1993, you will be able to find the Conclusion in question by consulting the appropriate year. Remember, the incident in question occurred in 1987, but dragged on to 1990 with the appeals process. Therefore, you may wish to check the manuals for that entire period."

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...ost+carefully+and+in+its+entirety#post1007920

I will not e-mail those documents to you. You can access them yourself if you really cared about the truth and exercised at least a modicum of healthy skepticism.

We have disagreed about many things. I do not lie to support my views. If I felt the need to embellish, then I would be better served by changing those views.

Regardless, believe what you will.

As for the "wisdom that awaits those who take the time," how is your trading faring since you have become enamored of VN, as compared to beforehand?

P.S. The "who taught whom" reference was a bit of sarcasm on my part, since it is my understanding that those other traders are performing at a level superior to that of VN. Surely you understood that.
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Thunder,

My first post directly to you.

Some of Dennis turtles went on to outperform him, albiet on a smaller scale. Is it a bad thing to say that some of VN's students went on to outperform him?

Best Regards
Oddi
 
Quote from oddiduro:

To further this discussion, I have to suggest that I think LTCM tried this, and the results are in the financial history books now. Mean reversion works until it doesn't. What I mean to say is, mean reversion stategies work very well until the explosion in directional price movement that MUST come sooner or later. Taleb would call the catalyst of this unexpected explosion a black swan.


Best Regards
Oddi
More...
I was going to make the same reference to PTF yesterday. However, I decided to give him the benefit of the doubt since he did mention the need to manage the account wisely in his post which you quoted. That would be very much unlike LTCM, which averaged down into oblivion waiting for that reversion. Of course, reversion eventually did occur, but the fund was history by then. It takes really smart people with a firm belief in their models to screw up so badly, eh? :D
 
Quote from oddiduro:

Thunder,

My first post directly to you.

Some of Dennis turtles went on to outperform him, albiet on a smaller scale. Is it a bad thing to say that some of VN's students went on to outperform him?

Best Regards
Oddi
More...
No, I guess it's not a bad thing. To be candid, I don't know all that much about Richard Dennis other than what was written about him in Market Wizards and some turtle-related material. However, I have read both of VN's books and a number of articles about him. I just don't much care for VN. He's vain, self-important and rather self-congratulatory. I absolutely hated his books. As for his trading, he personifies the LTCM mindset. I'm not sure what VN's students took away with them, but I'm guessing it was not his pomposity. Therefore, when someone speaks very positively about him, I feel compelled to balance that view. Forgive me. It's a quirk.
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

No, I guess it's not a bad thing. To be candid, I don't know all that much about Richard Dennis other than what was written about him in Market Wizards and some turtle-related material. However, I have read both of VN's books and a number of articles about him. I just don't much care for VN. He's vain, self-important and rather self-congratulatory. I absolutely hated his books. As for his trading, he personifies the LTCM mindset. Therefore, when someone speaks very positively about him, I feel compelled to balance that view. Forgive me. It's a quirk.
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And I, on the other hand know next to nothing about VN, except that surf knows him personally, and that he keeps blowing up. I was going to suggest that he appears to be a mean reversionist, but I just don't know enough about how he trades.

I wonder why the mean reversionists don't combine their models with a directional strategy
:confused:

Best Regards
Oddi
 
Quote from oddiduro:

...I was going to suggest that he appears to be a mean reversionist, but I just don't know enough about how he trades.
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Evidently, judging by his propensity to blow up, neither does he.
Quote from oddiduro:

...I wonder why the mean reversionists don't combine their models with a directional strategy...
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I won't pretend to know how he trades, seeing as how he employs a fair amount of options in his trading and I never touch the stuff. However, I have read here on ET that much of what VN did was essentially sell huge amounts of puts in SP on a fully unhedged basis. That does suggest a directional bias, along with a flagrant disregard for downside risk. I read this in posts written by ET members whom I hold in fairly high regard. (Taleb's remark about fund managers who game the system seems particularly apt.)
 
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