Rich and Taleb agree.....

Quote from rwk:

I don't think randomness is what Dennis meant by trial and error. He had done enough testing to know that he had an edge and that he would make money through the systematic application of that edge. He meant that making money on any particular trade was not magic. The outcome is determined by probabilities.

I don't think Taleb believes markets are random either. He says that markets are unpredictable, and that using a Gaussian distribution as a model for price behavior is a seriously flawed strategy.

I don't think either Dennis nor Taleb would expect a strategy of following price and hoping to have much success.

[rwk]
More...


that makes no sense. what edge is buying new highs and hoping?? those are OLD WIVES TALES that collapse when tested. the folly of trend trading can be summed up in the following easily tested hypothesis:

how many moves, what volume---, regardless of time, constant tic/volume bars, or whatever---- in the same direction INCREASE the probabilities of the next move or series of moves being in the same direction????

this is easily tested, and results in a random series--- so what can i say??


surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

that makes no sense. what edge is buying new highs and hoping?? those are OLD WIVES TALES that collapse when tested. the folly of trend trading can be summed up in the following easily tested hypothesis:

how many moves, what volume---, regardless of time, constant tic/volume bars, or whatever---- in the same direction INCREASE the probabilities of the next move or series of moves being in the same direction????

this is easily tested, and results in a random series--- so what can i say??


surf
More...

What's your suggestion as an alternative?
 
Quote from oddiduro:

Yeah, typing on the fly:D

Please forgive me.

Now back to the statement. Richard Dennis, the Turtle Jedi, says that trading is largely an accidental thing.

Do you agree?

Best Regards,
Oddi
More...


yes.

trading as a trend follower success is accidental and larely dependent on diversification across asset classes with large bank rolls ------- just like buy/sell and hold. the leaders in that field truly show again and again that there is no difference between Bandhold and trend following--stops??? give me a break!

surf
 
Nuff said Surf, the markets are random but randomness can be explained through statistics.

When I began studying finance I wouldn't accept the fact that the market was random because I figured that meant it couldn't be traded. Once I opened my mind up to this FACT I began developing strategies to incorporate it and my account began to grow. I can't argue with what works.

Quote from marketsurfer:

that makes no sense. what edge is buying new highs and hoping?? those are OLD WIVES TALES that collapse when tested. the folly of trend trading can be summed up in the following easily tested hypothesis:

how many moves, what volume---, regardless of time, constant tic/volume bars, or whatever---- in the same direction INCREASE the probabilities of the next move or series of moves being in the same direction????

this is easily tested, and results in a random series--- so what can i say??


surf
More...
 
Quote from infolode:

What's your suggestion as an alternative?
More...


"how markets really work" by connors is a good start.

otherwise, just accept that every entry is random, and the only edge you have is personal--use your intuition, read the news, trade what you think, be extremely wary of what you see. retail trading is an art form, can it be developed yes, can it be quantified no.

if you want to trade systems, test everything. take NOTHING at face value. don't listen to the vendors, particullarly those who REFUSE to show anything without you attending their magic shows.


surf


ps. may i also suggest " winner take all" gallacher, "education of a speculator" niederhoffer, and "practical spec...." by kenner/niederhoffer as good books to teach one how to think about the market.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

yes.

trading as a trend follower success is accidental and larely dependent on diversification across asset classes with large bank rolls ------- just like buy/sell and hold. the leaders in that field truly show again and again that there is no difference between Bandhold and trend following--stops??? give me a break!

surf
More...

Wow this is almost a religious fervor.
 
infolode, study statistics. Even a random data set will revert to the mean but it may take some trial and error. You can overcome this problem if you manage your account wisely. The farther the data moves from the mean the higher the probabilty it will revert to the mean. And, the more volume that goes into the move away from the mean the higher the probability price will revert back to the mean.

Have you ever seen a washout strong volume bottom retrace 50% (or more) of the move on light up volume? How is this possible? Because sellers are GONE. Most of the volume occurs at the tops and bottoms of the market. Watch that volume!

Quote from infolode:

What's your suggestion as an alternative?
More...
 
Quote from ProfitTakgFool:

infolode, study statistics. Even a random data set will revert to the mean but it may take some trial and error. You can overcome this problem if you manage your account wisely. The farther the data moves from the mean the higher the probabilty it will revert to the mean. And, the more volume that goes into the move away from the mean the higher the probability price will revert back to the mean.

Have you ever seen a washout strong volume bottom retrace 50% (or more) of the move on light up volume? How is this possible? Because sellers are GONE. Most of the volume occurs at the tops and bottoms of the market. Watch that volume!
More...

Yes, good suggestions, I track volume to gage distribution in in the stocks I trade on a daily basis. Index futures as well with the exception on small time frames with YM and ER. I don't even watch volume on these. I don't scalp per say, average 4 rt per.

I guess in that sense I don't follow a trend, SL for entry and it should work almost right away or I reverse or look for a better entry.
 

Attachments

You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top