Rich and Taleb agree.....

[Tracy McGreedy]

No, his portfolio is a rule based T/A system and not subjective. The rules are fixed.

You're missing something.. Most people utlizing some form of t/a are just fishing in the wrong area of the lake. Maybe most people are in the wrong place and at the wrong time. You can't throw a net into a lake and hope to catch tuna. Doesn't make the net completely useless tho.

Quote from marketsurfer:

your totally misunderstanding, some of my best friends are TA true believers.

TA can be used in a subjective/artistic way, i have no issue with this. people can develop intuitive abilities to read charts it seems. however, it's not objective and can't be quantified.

surf

 

[athlonmank8]

Quote from infolode:


Start of the day I'll look at weekly, daily, hourly bar chart for perspective. I already know them well but I examine them anyway. I keep a one year line chart open for perspective. I refer to a SPY chart every fifteen minutes without fail. I mostly trade off a 4 min barchart with ES, ER, YM . I use angles and measured moves that I update daily and trade the same stocks so I know their nature and how they "act."

Very nice.

Best of luck. How long did it take you to learn this? Curious. What you said is very important in trading equities.

 

[athlonmank8]

Quote from marketsurfer:

your totally misunderstanding, some of my best friends are TA true believers.

TA can be used in a subjective/artistic way, i have no issue with this. people can develop intuitive abilities to read charts it seems. however, it's not objective and can't be quantified.

surf

Exactly.

In fact, most traders can have these trades handed to them on a silver platter, and still not be able to execute them in a manner that would be profitable.

HOWEVER, the next person could be highly profitable.

Trading is a 50/50 game where the human makes it a 90(losers)/10 (winners) game.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Tracy McGreedy:

Bell Curve, yawn.. Hey I thought you were into Taleb and black swan theory.

Asians score much higher on the IQ tests than Caucasians or any other race. I do know alot of dumb asians tho.

"Testing" of the mediocre, the average. Outliers and fat tails are generally rejected in your area. This is the agenda for the 21st century, NWO, etc..

The PM has documented/audited returns that date back a decade. Their existence makes them real, no matter what your bell curve says.

I don't agree with everythin vn states nor do I discount everything said by the ta crowd. however the existence of your pm can't be extrapolated to have any meaning further than a positive blackswan type event.... IF and ONLY IF there are no other forces at play than what you speak which I highly doubt.

surf

 

[Tracy McGreedy]

The markets like any other game, be it in professional baseball or football is NOT where the mediocre or the average succeed. It is the job of sellside research and the thousands of vendors who suggest it is and so masses believe it.

If you want to call him a black swan, so be it. i wouldn't because the players are drafted/recruited based on their potential skill.

That only 1000 are good enough to play in major league baseball out of the millions who try does not make them insignificant. They use the same tools, ie bats, gloves, balls, as traders use charts, price, t/a.

Quote from marketsurfer:

I don't agree with everythin vn states nor do I discount everything said by the ta crowd. however the existence of your pm can't be extrapolated to have any meaning further than a positive blackswan type event.... IF and ONLY IF there are no other forces at play than what you speak which I highly doubt.

surf

 

[Tracy McGreedy]

Star athletes are a very significant part of our culture.

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from marketsurfer:

your totally misunderstanding, some of my best friends are TA true believers.

TA can be used in a subjective/artistic way, i have no issue with this. people can develop intuitive abilities to read charts it seems. however, it's not objective and can't be quantified.

surf

That is a foolish generalization. I employ price action in my trading. Fancy chart patterns mean nothing to me. I think indicators are overrated, but that's just me, I won't pass judgment on what others use just because I personally found no use for it. I look for a very specific and objective setup which, with my rules, anyone can identify. Whether I take the setup relies on a very small amount of discretion based on nothing other than a fair amount of screen time. In fact, judging by the examples cited in the article of VN posted earlier in this thread, I would suggest that I employ less discretion than VN does.

So why do you persist with your subjective/artistic platitude? That observation may be valid in some cases, but not in others, notably mine. You seem to place little value on screen time, even though you have been around for a while. What you continually and condescendingly (admit it) refer to as subjective/artistic can just as easily be characterized as skill. Skill which develops in the fullness of time, just as it does in any craft or occupation, be it filing, accounting, auto repair or whatever. After you've been at it for a while, you develop a sense of the relevant. And I would hardly describe file clerks, accountants or auto mechanics as artists.

Why do you continue embarrassing yourself with the same boilerplate bullshit?

 

[Tracy McGreedy]

Ever consider that individuals rate differently on tests of cognition. That some are actually superior and can develop a superior mental ability over time. But that would be too un-pc for the "every-man". Why are you so obsessed with the realm of the mediocre?

That when the mediocre cannot, then it must not be? Hmm, where have I heard that one before in the history books.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Thunderdog:

That is a foolish generalization. I employ price action in my trading. Fancy chart patterns mean nothing to me. I think indicators are overrated, but that's just me, I won't pass judgment on what others use just because I personally found no use for it. I look for a very specific and objective setup which, with my rules, anyone can identify. Whether I take the setup relies on a very small amount of discretion based on nothing other than a fair amount of screen time. In fact, judging by the examples cited in the article of VN posted earlier in this thread, I would suggest that I employ less discretion than VN.

So why do you persist with your subjective/artistic platitude? That observation may be valid in some cases, but not in others, notably mine. You seem to place little value on screen time, even though you have been around for a while. What you continually and condescendingly (admit it) refer to as subjective/artistic can just as easily be characterized as skill. Skill which develops in the fullness of time, just as it does in any craft or occupation, be it filing, accounting, auto repair or whatever. After you've been at it for a while, you develop a sense of the relevant. And I would hardly describe file clerks, accountants or auto mechanics as artists.

Why do you continue embarrassing yourself with the same boilerplate bullshit?

boilerplate? perhaps surf's boilerplate only---cause it makes sense.

i have come to the conclusion that despite your cleverness with the written word and contrarian personality, you also repeat the same things over and over again--- clever does not equate learned--- nothing worse than a well spoken/written idiot---no offense, i enjoy your writings--some are actually thought provoking.

you, are in fact, agreeing with me in the above post. you developed intuitive abilities via screen time---- i don't dispute this. however, it's a subjective skill, it's not testable--- in my world, that doesn't cut it.

surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Tracy McGreedy:

The markets like any other game, be it in professional baseball or football is NOT where the mediocre or the average succeed. It is the job of sellside research and the thousands of vendors who suggest it is and so masses believe it.

If you want to call him a black swan, so be it. i wouldn't because the players are drafted/recruited based on their potential skill.

That only 1000 are good enough to play in major league baseball out of the millions who try does not make them insignificant. They use the same tools, ie bats, gloves, balls, as traders use charts, price, t/a.

speaking of baseball--- do you discount inate ability? out of the 1000 that are good enough to play, how many truly excell 30?

how many money managers excell to the level of claimed ET greatness? how many have managed in excess of 300 million, returned huge numbers, enough to be ranked near the top of all managers and have never blown up? 5?? maybe????

TA is poured upon the masses, it looks easy, the masses of traders buy into it, they lose and the cycle starts again. the market machine is ravenous for fresh cash and the backwards illusion of TA keeps it coming in.

surf