Rewind Back 15 Years

[padutrader]

There's money if being realistic and a loss if unrealistic.
But then you mentioned you were not in it for money but for the thrill, to kill boredom.
So what do you really want, fun or money?

I did not know you were listening or paying attention to me, if not I would have been more careful, what I write.

Actually, today after blowing one more account, I went back to the beginning of my journal
and tried to figure out what was my method....

no one else could figure out my method or what the fu*k I was doing...

and it finally occurred to me, that neither could I

Honesty, not only to others, but to yourself, is one the most critical, yet the least mentioned quality, needed to become a great trader.

I started this journal with the simplest of trading methods ...see the trend and figure how to get on the moving bullet train with out getting killed.

I saw my first trade in the journal.....and remembered why I started trading...

my observations...see my numerous posts, ...they may seem very insightful....but over thinking the markets, like I continuously do, is unnecessary ...as it is extremely unproductive and dangerous and something the markets encourage with glee.

I keep getting lost in the forest [market] which is a true wonderland , which I enter for rest or for the scenery and then have to get back to the road.

this is why I keep this journal.

so i went out to the beginning and saw what i started out with..just get on a moving train, without getting killed, to reach the destination.

All my observations and insights about the market only confused me.....but luckily judging from the numerous replies I got...some polite ...some not so polite....but all correct, it confused no one else.

I am terribly relieved that this was the case and that reflects very highly on the caliber and good heartedness of traders in ET.

they are truly elite

thank you, a big thankyou for your question MR . theMickey ...

change that to theenligtenedone.......the other title is very unbecoming of you and very misleading.

 

[themickey]

Ask yourself, why are you confused regarding methodology after all these years.
It's like you are in a maze, going down one track then going another track.
Trading is a maze, it is a very complex system, hundreds or maybe more ways that one can trade.
When a noob enters for the first time it can be overwhelming on choices.
But as they progress they begin to understand because they create a map of where the deadends are.
If you were to offer prize money, my choice would be to take the maze which is easiest.
Others choose mazes for excitement or maybe the challenge or it suits their bank account or maybe the time of day available to them.
But after chosing which poisonous maze, then they need to learn to conqueror it.
Personally I don't believe an ET journal is the right method to getting your plan together. Yes, good for feedback but quite limited as trading is a personal thing.
I think of famous traders like Jesse Livermore, I doubt he got ideas from reading books or chatting online, my guess is he sussed it out by studying behaviour, then kept it to himself and exploited the crap out of it.
But even Jesses had his demons which got the better of him (manipulative tasty looking women who fucked over his head)
These days the market is more difficult, but what the crowd do, try not that route.
I'd suggest a few days off trading, then do a brainstorming session with yourself, write down every idea, even stupid ideas, then pick thru it and devise a strategy which suits you and your family.
Then attempt to keep building that same strategy, like a business plan toward some kind of perfection.
There is no such thing as perfection, but aim to do the best.

 

[Onra]

Padu, you're acting like I did; quickscanning charts and jumping in on every "setup" you see.

More than half of them are traps; setups in the wrong place and/or time.
Smart Money needs accumulation and they are setting multiple traps...
When they're ready, they finally open with a 'genuine setup" on multiple TF's to make sure everybody runs in the direction they want.

IMO:
• concentrate on one pair and use a few extra TF's.
• You have to know where the 1H en Daily guys are looking for.
Study where they entered before; these are the battlegrounds where uncertainty is high, but the Risk/Reward the best.

 

[padutrader]

When they're ready, they finally open with a 'genuine setup" on multiple TF's to make sure everybody runs in the direction they want.

that is good.....most people do not believe that market can be manipulated....I only started trading when I learned it was manipulated.
yes you are right but it has to be worked out ….

I have been there done it before......

in golf when I used to play well..no one said anything but when I played badly everybody had a suggestion to make except the best of the players.

 

[padutrader]

Ask yourself, why are you confused regarding methodology after all these years.
It's like you are in a maze, going down one track then going another track.
Trading is a maze, it is a very complex system, hundreds or maybe more ways that one can trade.
When a noob enters for the first time it can be overwhelming on choices.
But as they progress they begin to understand because they create a map of where the deadends are.
If you were to offer prize money, my choice would be to take the maze which is easiest.
Others choose mazes for excitement or maybe the challenge or it suits their bank account or maybe the time of day available to them.
But after chosing which poisonous maze, then they need to learn to conqueror it.
Personally I don't believe an ET journal is the right method to getting your plan together. Yes, good for feedback but quite limited as trading is a personal thing.
I think of famous traders like Jesse Livermore, I doubt he got ideas from reading books or chatting online, my guess is he sussed it out by studying behaviour, then kept it to himself and exploited the crap out of it.
But even Jesses had his demons which got the better of him (manipulative tasty looking women who fucked over his head)
These days the market is more difficult, but what the crowd do, try not that route.
I'd suggest a few days off trading, then do a brainstorming session with yourself, write down every idea, even stupid ideas, then pick thru it and devise a strategy which suits you and your family.
Then attempt to keep building that same strategy, like a business plan toward some kind of perfection.
There is no such thing as perfection, but aim to do the best.

thanks
I am on the job

 

[ironchef]

the problem is I do not think they helped anyone make money...….not even me.

You are too modest. I actually gained some insights from your posts.

By the way, if they don't help anyone make money, not even you, what is the purpose?

Don't worry, I won't ask you for your recipe.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

When you are on a journey, best to get to the abyss as soon as possible.

 

[padutrader]

When you are on a journey, best to get to the abyss as soon as possible.

you made your point numerous times....
are you qualified to give advice....I am being polite do not push it
I can go and do whatever I want

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

you made your point numerous times....
are you qualified to give advice....I am being polite do not push it
I can go and do whatever I want

Sure, qualified in that I actually make money investing and trading. Haven't yet conquered forex, will do so eventually.

 

[volpri]

sold eur at 1.11753View attachment 202200

I treat this PA as a range tilted into a bear channel. Is it broad enough to trade short and long? That depends on my min target objective. I want the channel to be in width at least 3 or 4 times my min profit object. Better, if more. If more, then can be trade both ways. If 3x then best to ONLY short the channel. That is the safer bet.

However, it MUST be remembered that this is a bear channel. Bear channels function as bull flags. The forthcoming BO (sooner or later) 70% odds will be to the upside. So...I need a tactic to deal with any ensuing bull BO of the channel that becomes a successful BO.

On the other hand there is a 75% chance that any BO of top or bottom of the channel WILL fail and price will go right back into the channel. So...any BO doesn’t mean it is a successful BO. I will know one when I see one. PB’s will stay above or below the channel and there will be other signs of strenght or weakness. So...if I get caught on the wrong side on a BO what do I do? Well I have to exit my position. Double or triple up and go with the BO direction. And keep adding as long as it stays above the BO point (top of the channel in a bull BO and the bottom of the channel in a bear BO).

Now another tidbit on odds. This is a bear channel. Likely resolution is a bull BO as mentioned above 70%. Now what do I do if instead it breaks out south of the channel with a SUCCESSFUL (see above for def of successful BO). In that case, the least likely event has happened. The 30% event. So I rub my hands with glee short the market and look for a measured move down starting from the BO point (bottom of the channel and my entry point) and if strong may also use the top of the channel to my entry point and measure down that much further for my initial PT.

But as long as price stay in the channel I am scalping as first mentioned above. That is, taking a short position in the middle third and adding to my position in the top third and even adding on a BO that is likely to fail (75% chance) then exiting in middle third or preferably the bottom third. If exiting in middle third I break even on my first entries and make money on my added entries that were added in the top third. I keep in mind too that the longer a channel has been a channel and the more BO attempts it has then the odds of the next BO succeeding go up. And the odds of the next BO failing go down. So, this also affects my decision to add onto a say short position in a BO north or long position in a BO south.

Playing the odds of price patterns in view of the larger context.

There are many more tactical plays in this channel. Why? Because there are trends within it.There are micro channels within it. There are exhaustion bars within it. There are wedge tops and bottoms within it. There are reversals within it. There are triangles within it. There are mini flags within it...on and on...may even be some nested patterns within it. Just don’t feel like looking for them..LOL

Good luck.


PS please print out Padu’s beautiful chart here with my wonderful annotations and comments and put in a very visible place so as to learn the concepts embedded within. You just might find it to be useful for trading on a sim ROFLMAO. Have fun.