Rewind Back 15 Years

[padutrader]

once this bull ends

40 years back when i got interested in markets someone told me that the bull is going to end....forgive me if i am perplexed today.

but,one way of looking at it, is there is always a bull .....depends on which time frame you are looking at.
A bull in 5 min may be a part of a bear in the hourly.

 

[padutrader]

Seykota went bust. People need to stop worshipping at the altar of Seykota. The guy made money when mkts were absurdly inefficient.

true .....he could not adjust....technology has reduced edge to almost nothing.

but give the guy his due...he was good at one time

 

[padutrader]

had some good logics.

keep it simple..see the trend and enter on the correction.

practically it is not simple because what is the trend and what is the correction.to differentiate is far from easy because often the borders are blurred.

so you have to bear with drawdown

another aspect is that corrections are notoriously fickle and it is very difficult to know when it actually ends.until it is late.

 

[padutrader]

make sure you don'g bet the farm and spend funds you cannot afford to lose.

as you know i have lost lots but i am still trading so it was funds i could afford to lose.

though in the beginning i was overconfident and did lose funds i could not afford to lose so your fear is quite justified

 

[padutrader]

Sounds like trading is your passion

to me trading is a problem.
And To quote Albert Einstein ' i am not more intelligent than others; i only stay with the problem longer'
meaning he tries to solve the problem even after others have long given up.

i am getting nearer the solution

 

[padutrader]

My results are better than yours

however absurd it may seem i am not really bothered with results because i want to understand market movements, not from metaphysics angle, but so that i could trade it better.

I am not happy with accepting uncertainty of markets because i believe markets are certain.

just because it is not understood does not mean markets are random or are gibberish.

i would like to point out that to those who are not fluent in a particular language, that language is gibberish.

i am trying to understand markets.

 

[padutrader]

Anyway, there is more than one way to skin a cat. To each his own, as long as it works to your satisfaction.

that is the biggest advantage of trading......you can customise it to suit almost any type of person and his needs....

 

[themickey]

destriero said:
Seykota went bust. People need to stop worshipping at the altar of Seykota. The guy made money when mkts were absurdly inefficient.

You have me on block so I can't give you a like.
Everyone is at risk of going broke except perhaps multimillionaires and/or those who are conservative with risk and play the long game - that is, incremental rewards, or, perhaps some of these Silicon Valley type giants who just hit it big time.
But as for worshipping at altars, many years of a religous church life has taught me that gurus in life have one thing in common, a silver tongue and self preservation of themselves, their message often a message of self deception.
But the theme "everyone gets what they want" appears to me to be a universal truth. (Not talking about unfortunates caught up in political or social injustice).

 

[padutrader]

SEE THE CHART OF USDJPY BELOW :

the second fall is on lesser momentum than the first:as confirmed by the RSI.

The small uptrend after that is with a uptrending RSI and a much stronger RSI for the last 5 bars before close.

The moving averages...5 , 21,50 are all becoming a little less steep while 120 and 240 have steepened.

so expect a move up towards the target shown / marked.

if the move towards the target is rapid it will set up another move down .....if it is slow then it may hold at around the target level or go down weakly to set up another move up:this may then test the spike high made during NFP

the target is the start of the down channel after the spike.

There is another reason for that target and that is based on market structure but to explain that is beyond the scope of this journal.

and yet another reason for the target to be achieved is all the prayers i have done

 

[padutrader]

see chats of eurusd below.

The rsi is strongly suggesting that the last moves up were on decreasing strength so the up move may be over.
the second chart shows the move up in a larger context and there are two reasons why this may be a corrective move in a larger downtrend: the RSI suggest this and also the market structure,which shows price at the top of the down channel.

the target shown is a conservative one .

the structure strongly suggests a test of the low seen on the chart and made on the NFP data release. this is the bear case.

there is a bull case but because i am short, posting such views is banned on this journal