[09 17/04/09] Stalion : helloo there, LP....
[09 17/04/09] Stalion : We put a sell stop on GBPUSD @ 14795...1ST TARGET @
14735...2ND TARGET @ 14665.. STOP LOSS @ 14850...
FINANCIAL TIMES
"Peripheral care should be the central concern"
By George Soros
The Group of 20 meeting is a make-or-break event. Unless it comes up with practical measures
to support the less developed countries, which are even more vulnerable than the developed
ones, markets are going to suffer another sinking spell just as they did last month when Tim
Geithner, Treasury secretary, failed to produce practical measures to recapitalise the US
banking system.
This crisis is different from all the others since the end of the second world war.
Previously, the authorities got their act together and prevented the financial system from
collapsing. This time, after the failure of Lehman Brothers last September, the system broke
down and was put on artificial life support. Among other measures, both Europe and the US in
effect guaranteed that no other important financial institution would be allowed to fail.
This necessary step had unintended adverse consequences: many other countries, from eastern
Europe to Latin America, Africa and south-east Asia, could not offer similar guarantees. As
a result, capital fled from the periphery to the centre. The flight was abetted by national
financial authorities at the centre who encouraged banks to repatriate their capital. In the
periphery countries, currencies fell, interest rates rose and credit default swap rates
soared. When history is written, it will be recorded that - in contrast to the Great
Depression - protectionism first prevailed in finance rather than trade.
Institutions such as the International Monetary Fund face a novel task: to protect the
periphery countries from a storm created in the developed world. Global institutions are
used to dealing with governments; now they must deal with the collapse of the private
sector. If they fail to do so, the periphery economies will suffer even more than those at
the centre, because they are poorer and more dependent on commodities than the developed
world. They also face $1,440bn (â¬1,060bn, £994bn) of bank loans coming due in 2009. These
loans cannot be rolled over without international aid.
Gordon Brown, the UK prime minister, recognised the problem and designated the G20 meeting
to address it. Yet profound attitudinal differences have surfaced, particularly between the
US and Germany. The US has recognised that the collapse of credit in the private sector can
be reversed only by using the credit of the state to the full. Germany, traumatised by the
memory of hyperinflation in the 1920s, is reluctant to sow the seeds of future inflation by
incurring too much debt. Both positions are firmly held. The controversy threatens to
disrupt the meeting.
Yet it should be possible to find common ground. Instead of setting a universal target of 2
per cent of gross domestic product for stimulus packages, it is enough to agree that the
periphery countries need aid to protect their financial systems. This is in the common
interest. If the periphery economies are allowed to collapse, the developed countries will
also be hurt.
As things stand, the G20 meeting will produce some concrete results: the resources of the
IMF are likely to be doubled, mainly by using the mechanism of the "new arrangements to
borrow", which can be activated without resolving the vexed question of reapportioning
voting rights.
This will be sufficient to enable the IMF to help specific countries at risk but it will not
provide a systemic solution for the less developed countries. Such a solution is readily
available in the form of special drawing rights. SDRs are complex but they boil down to the
international creation of money. Countries that can create their own money do not need them
but periphery countries do. The rich countries should therefore lend their allocations to
the nations in need.
Recipient countries would pay the IMF interest at a very low rate, equivalent to the
composite average treasury bill rate of all convertible currencies. They would have free use
of their own allocations but would be supervised in how the borrowed allocations were used
to ensure they were well spent.
In addition to the one-time increase in the IMF's resources, there ought to be a big annual
issue of SDRs, of say $250bn, as long as the recession lasts. It is too late to use the
April 2 G20 meeting to agree this, but if it were raised by President Barack Obama and
endorsed by others, this would be sufficient to give heart to the markets and turn the
meeting into a resounding success.
[08:47:01 21/04/09] Stalion : helloo there
[08:51:02 21/04/09] Stalion : we are seeing a 123 bottom on the GBPUSD 15 minute chart, so
standing by for a bullish move
[08:53:20 21/04/09] Learning_pips : cool
[08:54:49 21/04/09] Learning_pips : news also coming out today
[09:02:51 21/04/09] Stalion : we put a buy stop on GBPUSD @ 1.4574...1st target @
1.4613...2nd target @ 1.4645...stop loss @ 1.4510..
[09:03:08 21/04/09] fxjedi : hi stal
[09:05:15 21/04/09] Learning_pips : ok
[09:35:58 21/04/09] Learning_pips : stal the news came out a little better than expected
[09:36:54 21/04/09] Learning_pips : ok buy stop triggered
[09:36:56 21/04/09] Learning_pips : we are in
[09:48:42 21/04/09] Learning_pips : price is hesitating
[09:59:21 21/04/09] Stalion : cool
[10:04:11 21/04/09] Learning_pips : looks like we r on our way
[10:07:16 21/04/09] Learning_pips : closed 1 lot with 25pips and moved SL to breakeven
[10:15:54 21/04/09] Learning_pips : ok second lot stopped out
[10:21:47 21/04/09] Learning_pips : hey paul..did u pick up the last trade
[10:29:00 21/04/09] Learning_pips : stal I have a question around this call, did u pick it
up off the 15min chart or the 4hr chart?
[10:32:10 21/04/09] Stalion : good work, LP
[10:34:08 21/04/09] Learning_pips : thnx
[10:34:59 21/04/09] Stalion : but how come u were stopped out on ur 2nd lot wen SL is
supposed to be around 14510...
[10:35:59 21/04/09] Learning_pips : no actually I moved second lot to entry point
[10:36:56 21/04/09] Learning_pips : but then after that candle with the long upper shadow I
entered again on the next candle
[10:37:53 21/04/09] fxjedi : am up 30 pips,stal
[10:38:24 21/04/09] Stalion : cool...your learning well...
[10:38:40 21/04/09] Stalion : the call was taken off the 15 min chart..
[
[10:58:11 21/04/09] fxjedi : ok
. Personally am impressed with the 
