I see, I was more or less just giving constructive criticism based on my experience.
Later man (and GL)
Later man (and GL)
Review my newest EUR/USD system
- Thread starter elabunsky
- Start date
Hi Eugene,
Your trade results appear a little dubious. To me the system seems to be completely curve fitted.
The reason I say that is from looking at the number of trades and the consecutive wins and losses. It is obviously a day trading system, and trades on average 9 times per day, yet it's maximum number of consecutive losses was 551 trades.
Would you really trust a system that trades 9 times per day, yet can lose on every trade for four months!
The equity curve also shows that many consectutive losses (in the hundreds) appears to be the norm, with the occasional outsized win. The averages may seem promising with regard to the risk/reward and win/loss ratio - but the nature of the winning trades indicates to me that the system is over-optimised and is simply curve fitted to those occasional large wins.
- Of course, maybe it hasn't been optimised at all and is exploiting some particular market condition, but only you would know that.
System can not be curve fitted because have several parameters, did not used any neural systems etc. Entry to position signal is very simple (MOVING AVERAGE). Another 2 params relates with capital management.
Let me notice that system loss 800 000 during this bad time and total profit is over 75 000 000 ... This is another point of view. And basic system's values is trade's amount, win/loss ration and win probability. Another values is useless and more for getting additional info about system.
PS. I can send demo to you. It have opened source MetaTrader's code and DLL. Contact me by email - elabunsky@gmail.com if you like test it yourself before I'll release beta.
Regards,
Eugene.
Have you taken in account the slippage.... with such a big amount of trade?
Sure (I tested inside my internal system tester first with $50 slippage for round trade).
Check out average profit 10155 and average loss -3000
For example, average trade is result of open/close 10 lot. So add $100 slippage for one lot and you will have average profit $9000 and average loss -$4000. This is still good system. Right?
Regards,
Eugene.
In this case we have Win/Loss ratio 2.25, Win. probabilty is 38%. I made simulation in my own tool. I attached this result. It's stable system still.
I guess you understand that this is very strong estimation of slippage (MetaTrader 4 tester included some slippage already)
Regards,
Eugene.
Eugene,
the next logical step would be a walk-forward test with out-of-sample data. Any straight-up MT4 backtest is of very limited usefulness. Also, if you want me to review a demo copy of a MT4 EA PM me.
Odysseus
the next logical step would be a walk-forward test with out-of-sample data. Any straight-up MT4 backtest is of very limited usefulness. Also, if you want me to review a demo copy of a MT4 EA PM me.
Odysseus
You can download installation file from:
http://www.forexwavetrader.com/tmp/qtcTraderMT4.exe (Notice, this is beta and have not some features developed like system state save etc)
Open the PNG file enclosed for get some info about system's parameters, please.
Read more about Wave Trailing -
http://www.trendmedium.com/download/SurfingYourPositionsWithWaveStops.pdf
I like notice: you can increase your LotLimit up 10000. In this case
you will see max system profit and max trade's amount. Do not forget define relates income capital ($10 000 000 at least).
This is capital adjustable system and when you will start trading all you need set reasonable LotLimit size. With LotLimit 10000 you will max trade amount, but my system have adjust capital feature and when you will set 30 mini lots system will have position's limit 3 lots. And trades amount will be less in this case also.
Regards,
Eugene.
it seems to me all discretionary... nothing to do with systematic.... waves are very subjective as shown on your PDF format.
Wave trailing allow give better results (around +20% plus) and this is the part of the technology. What is discretionary exactly?
If you can't understand the system I like say you again - system have a lot of trades, good average loss/win & win prob. values. And other words are discretionary
)) Do not be philosopher, but just see system's report.Regards,
Eugene.