Reverse Trader's Grail
- Thread starter ProfitProphet
- Start date
From an interview with Gann
http://www.acrotec.com/gann/gann.html
"After the long journey for knowledge, he concluded his findings that the financial markets are driven by the "Law of Vibration". The law once grasped, one can tell the future market time and price with high accuracy. Gann also claimed that the "Rate of Vibration" of individual stocks and futures contracts determine the up and down of their prices. "
It has anything to do with the Enneagram and shocks?
Not that there are anything absolute in the market but..
http://www.acrotec.com/gann/gann.html
"After the long journey for knowledge, he concluded his findings that the financial markets are driven by the "Law of Vibration". The law once grasped, one can tell the future market time and price with high accuracy. Gann also claimed that the "Rate of Vibration" of individual stocks and futures contracts determine the up and down of their prices. "
It has anything to do with the Enneagram and shocks?
Not that there are anything absolute in the market but..
100 years ago Gann and Livermore made fortunes anticipating economic movement. Gann did it with astrology and mathematics and Livermore did it thru a crude spread sheet.
There was no internet, CNBC, telephone usage was cumbersome, expensive and not as widespread, same for the telegraph, newspapers were printed twice daily and radio was just being invented. Point is, information was not received as fast as today. These two good men were able to trade pure crowd emotions.
Today, with information coming in so fast from so many sources, it is difficult to know what will affect the market, what will not and what is already priced in. The radio wave prediction model is not a trading plan, but a suggestion. Only on truly dead news and announcement days is the model 85% accurate.
Which brings me to the reverse trader's grail. An indicator so consistently wrong, one just fades its signals. On a purely mechanical level, this will make its user wonderful profits. It does not call absolute high and lows but relative highs and lows. Good enough to trade against.
Instrument of choice is the Russell 2000 eMini. Here are the rules of my usage.
A. 8 trades maximum, or close of trading session. Whichever comes first.
B. Trade all signals. However, the current signal must be at least 15 minutes apart from last signal.
C. As soon as market opens, initiate trade in direction of overnight trend. This alone has a 50% probability of producing an average 20 tick loss or a 10 to 50 tick runaway gain. Look for reverse signal.
For spits and giggles, here are the results of the last two days. Times posted are Central.
October 6, 2006
S 08:30 746.00
L 09:01 742.70
S 09:19 741.00
L 09:29 741.10
S 10:10 742.90
L 11:51 742.40
S 14:02 747.20
L 15:14 744.60
Total trades: 7
Wins: 5
Losses:2
Tick total: 112
October 9, 2006
S 08:30 743.50
L 09:01 742.00
S 12:55 749.10
L 15:14 750.00
Total trades: 3
Wins: 2
Losses: 1
Tick total: 77
I've traded this way for almost 3 years. Four out of five days are profitable, which means, I give back on the fifth day, what was earned on the fourth, for an average 3 up days out of 5. I average 50 ticks per day or 150 per week. This method is horrid! Proper money management escapes me. No stops. I know if I had good m.m. rules, I could squeeze another 10 ticks or so per week. Since I am only earning 150 weekly ticks, I feel like a pauper when I know at least twice that is possible. Why does this elude me so?
There was no internet, CNBC, telephone usage was cumbersome, expensive and not as widespread, same for the telegraph, newspapers were printed twice daily and radio was just being invented. Point is, information was not received as fast as today. These two good men were able to trade pure crowd emotions.
Today, with information coming in so fast from so many sources, it is difficult to know what will affect the market, what will not and what is already priced in. The radio wave prediction model is not a trading plan, but a suggestion. Only on truly dead news and announcement days is the model 85% accurate.
Which brings me to the reverse trader's grail. An indicator so consistently wrong, one just fades its signals. On a purely mechanical level, this will make its user wonderful profits. It does not call absolute high and lows but relative highs and lows. Good enough to trade against.
Instrument of choice is the Russell 2000 eMini. Here are the rules of my usage.
A. 8 trades maximum, or close of trading session. Whichever comes first.
B. Trade all signals. However, the current signal must be at least 15 minutes apart from last signal.
C. As soon as market opens, initiate trade in direction of overnight trend. This alone has a 50% probability of producing an average 20 tick loss or a 10 to 50 tick runaway gain. Look for reverse signal.
For spits and giggles, here are the results of the last two days. Times posted are Central.
October 6, 2006
S 08:30 746.00
L 09:01 742.70
S 09:19 741.00
L 09:29 741.10
S 10:10 742.90
L 11:51 742.40
S 14:02 747.20
L 15:14 744.60
Total trades: 7
Wins: 5
Losses:2
Tick total: 112
October 9, 2006
S 08:30 743.50
L 09:01 742.00
S 12:55 749.10
L 15:14 750.00
Total trades: 3
Wins: 2
Losses: 1
Tick total: 77
I've traded this way for almost 3 years. Four out of five days are profitable, which means, I give back on the fifth day, what was earned on the fourth, for an average 3 up days out of 5. I average 50 ticks per day or 150 per week. This method is horrid! Proper money management escapes me. No stops. I know if I had good m.m. rules, I could squeeze another 10 ticks or so per week. Since I am only earning 150 weekly ticks, I feel like a pauper when I know at least twice that is possible. Why does this elude me so?
Howdy to all in Trading Land. In my case, Fantasy Land (ha!). Another harrowing day in the markets. Tough morning. Was down more than 30 ticks before 9 a.m. Losses and drawdowns come with the job but that doesn't mean they are any easier to endure.
Results for today.
October 10, 2006
L 08:30 750.20
S 08:47 747.70
L 09:26 748.30
S 10:35 751.80
L 13:03 748.20
S 14:55 751.60
Total trades: 5
Wins: 3
Losses: 2
Total ticks: 74
The trick is that the ER is a churn 'em and burn 'em market. The probability of a trending day is about 22%. Knowing that statisitc means one can fade with confidence at key exhaustion points.
ER closed at virtually the same spot as yesterday yet is all over the place during the day.
Every morning at 2 minutes before the open, I scream at the top of me lungs "FUCK THE DUMB SHIT!" It clears my head, reminds me to trade what I see, not what I think and puts me in the proper frame of mind. Because at the end of the day, some win, most lose, it is all dumb shit.
Results for today.
October 10, 2006
L 08:30 750.20
S 08:47 747.70
L 09:26 748.30
S 10:35 751.80
L 13:03 748.20
S 14:55 751.60
Total trades: 5
Wins: 3
Losses: 2
Total ticks: 74
The trick is that the ER is a churn 'em and burn 'em market. The probability of a trending day is about 22%. Knowing that statisitc means one can fade with confidence at key exhaustion points.
ER closed at virtually the same spot as yesterday yet is all over the place during the day.
Every morning at 2 minutes before the open, I scream at the top of me lungs "FUCK THE DUMB SHIT!" It clears my head, reminds me to trade what I see, not what I think and puts me in the proper frame of mind. Because at the end of the day, some win, most lose, it is all dumb shit.
The title of this thread is the Reverse Trader's Grail. It implies an indicator so consistently backwards, it is useful as a perfect fade.
One thing you may not have considered is because a signal is clear to one trader, doesn't mean it will be clear to you. I think its a reverse Grail, doesn't mean you will.
The most important piece of advice I can give is: TIGHTEN YOUR STOPS. Do not be afraid of the stop out. Relish in it. It means the market is moving.
One thing you may not have considered is because a signal is clear to one trader, doesn't mean it will be clear to you. I think its a reverse Grail, doesn't mean you will.
The most important piece of advice I can give is: TIGHTEN YOUR STOPS. Do not be afraid of the stop out. Relish in it. It means the market is moving.
Refresh my memory. What clock question?