Reverse Psychology/Trading

You know I have exactly the same idea about this issue. If you are a Broker, chances are it will make easier for you to find him. Just tracking secretly your clients activities.

Fortunately, you can try with me. You give me some money to start then you secretly monitor my trades and do exactly the opposite of mine. Does it sound good? When can we start?
:)

Quote from romik:

Has anyone tried trading against a total loser by opening reverse trades? Losers are not easy to find on BBs, more chances in the open world, that is not an issue anyway. The difficulty comes from finding The One that consistently makes wrong trades and going against him.
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quote from myself:
...or they keep trying to change they're mindset. Damn Hope. Who needs it?
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I retract my previous statement.

Maybe there really are people like Bernie Lootz (The Cooler - William H. Macy)
 
Quote from Matt8200:

A lot of losers are losers because of position sizing and money managment.
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Shit, I didn't take that into consideration. Even so, if they are consistent at what they do, they have no chance coming out on top, though reversing their trades, even same size trades, theoretically should put you in profit.

Say Dick has $5k and that's all he has, he then starts off with making 3 trades per day risking 10% of his total. After 2 weeks he is down 50% and decides to recoup his losses risking the remainder ($2500) on one trade and let's assume he is out this time 100%. Now for him the game is over, but what about the one fading losing trader's positions, what if he only dedicated 5% of his capital to that "experiment"?

Also, the loser could be using simulated account, no real money required.
 
Has anyone attempted calculating the probability ratio between win vs loss where positions are opened on random basis, without any indicators or knowledge of a market using fixed capital allocation and stops on every trade? Would it be near 50/50 or totally not?
 
If you run money for others or know others who do and have clients that are calling to complain about not being fully invested, sell the market short.
 
Quote from romik:

Has anyone tried trading against a total loser by opening reverse trades? Losers are not easy to find on BBs, more chances in the open world, that is not an issue anyway. The difficulty comes from finding The One that consistently makes wrong trades and going against him.
More...

I know two guys in Seattle doing this very successfully.

The basic of their setup is this...

One guy (trader A) is a consistent losing trader with real money (lost about 62k trading futures in a few years) via some particular method he got from a book about position trading.

His buddy (trader B) a breakeven trader at the time...convinced him to stop trading with real money and to switch to simulator trading and to continue using the same losing method.

Trader B than enters and exits trades that are the complete opposite of Trader A positions almost at the exact same time.

Trader B is trading with real money (almost 3x the size) and Trader A is trading that same losing method on a simulator.

They use the same broker (execution platform) and trade side by side in Trader A home office.

Accordingly to them they are very profitable with this type of reverse trading style.

I'll be visiting the Seattle area this summer (camping trip) and will watch them do this in person towards the end of my vacation because I'm curious to see this type of reverse trading relationship.

Maybe this can be automated ??? :D:D

However, trying to do such by oneself via fading your own trade decisions...I don't think is possible.

Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
 
Quote from NihabaAshi:

I know two guys in Seattle doing this very successfully.

The basic of their setup is this...

One guy (trader A) is a consistent losing trader with real money (lost about 62k trading futures in a few years) via some particular method he got from a book about position trading.

His buddy (trader B) a breakeven trader at the time...convinced him to stop trading with real money and to switch to simulator trading and to continue using the same losing method.

Trader B than enters and exits trades that are the complete opposite of Trader A positions almost at the exact same time.

Trader B is trading with real money (almost 3x the size) and Trader A is trading that same losing method on a simulator.

They use the same broker (execution platform) and trade side by side in Trader A home office.

Accordingly to them they are very profitable with this type of reverse trading style.

I'll be visiting the Seattle area this summer (camping trip) and will watch them do this in person towards the end of my vacation because I'm curious to see this type of reverse trading relationship.

Maybe this can be automated ??? :D:D

However, trying to do such by oneself via fading your own trade decisions...I don't think is possible.

Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
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this is an absolutely fascinating story - but how long can it work? i mean - trader A - how long will he be able to keep up his "performance" - when will he start to learn and stop doing the "right" thing?

just curious...
 
Quote from romik:

Has anyone attempted calculating the probability ratio between win vs loss where positions are opened on random basis, without any indicators or knowledge of a market using fixed capital allocation and stops on every trade? Would it be near 50/50 or totally not?
More...

come on brains, let's go, any mathematicians around or what?
 
Quote from romik:

come on brains, let's go, any mathematicians around or what?
More...

Van k Tharp discusses this topic in "trade your way to financial freedom". Great book..pick it up. It will change the way you look at accepting risk.
 
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