Reverse Iron Condors

Quote from jkgraham:

HA that's funnyl. Actually I'm convinced that I'm not very interested in the trade that I started this thread with anymore. I think I will use strangles around earnings. But I am also learning as much as I can.
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Long option positions for EAs are another crapshoot. If you want to play earnings in a lower risk fashion, look into ways of selling near term high IV and buying out month lower IV. OTOH, if out month is highly elevated, consider reverse calendars (G,D,R).
 
Quote from MBfromLA:

Atticus::::
I hope your account P/L backs up your arrogance.

If you show me your calculations with % of probability of NFLX being up or down 20 points from the current price within the next 4 months, I'll show you 90% probability calculations,,,,
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A 90% probability of hitting better than 30% every four months in a short condor? Let's bet your net liq on that. We'll need a total of ten four-month cycles. I can wait. I'll take the other side of each condor and we can prop-bet on which produces the greatest lookback return (peak historical profitability (peak to trough)).

PM me if interested because I am (interested).

Re: the vernacular. Always refer to the natural (not the combo) when naming a position. You can build a condor with calls, puts or a combination of both. In this case the natural is the call OR put condor. You're either long or short. This thread is concerned with a short natural condor. Why, wtf knows.

Long a call condor = long the put condor: debit req (or it's arbitrage)

Always refer the the natural when naming. Short body/long wings is a long condor due to equivalence. Now why is this thread obsessed with one-side of the coin?
 
Quote from spindr0:

Apples and oranges. The other peep claimed that the trade has a 90% chance of success of making the max profit of 40% and I disagree with that optimism.

You can cut your loss anywhere you want. That's not probability. That's money management.
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Nope, you're wrong spindr0. You CAN assign probabilities.

I mean, have you ever used ThinkOrSwim's ANALYZE tab that gives the probability of expiring OTM and prob of touching a particular strike? It also gives max profit, max loss and those probabilities.

It uses a normal distribution to do so- very quantitative!
 
Quote from babutime:

Nope, you're wrong spindr0. You CAN assign probabilities.

I mean, have you ever used ThinkOrSwim's ANALYZE tab that gives the probability of expiring OTM and prob of touching a particular strike? It also gives max profit, max loss and those probabilities. It uses a normal distribution to do so- very quantitative!
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I'd respond in detail but given that you have no concept of how an apple is different than an orange, you're coconuts.
 
Quote from babutime:

Nope, you're wrong spindr0. You CAN assign probabilities.

I mean, have you ever used ThinkOrSwim's ANALYZE tab that gives the probability of expiring OTM and prob of touching a particular strike? It also gives max profit, max loss and those probabilities.

It uses a normal distribution to do so- very quantitative!
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That is funny if you are being facetious. If you are serious, then you have a long way to go.
 
Quote from traderlux:

:confused:
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Spindr0 totally misunderstood Opt789's post, and as it gets re-quoted it loses even more meaning. I suggest you go back and read the threads, you should be able to find the mix-up.
 
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