Reversal day today 2/19/04?

[ssb]

Quote from Grand Master B:

Thanx ssb, excellent graph.

This is exactly what I see. And it looks like the chart is ready to go south! Knocking at the door of support, it'll bust through very soon.

Thank you GM.

That is a much appreciated compliment sine I write the software myself- which I hope to release as shareware in the near future.

One disturbing thing about the channel cycle this time around is that while the Nasdaq is setting at the lower trend line/support, the Dow is setting at the upper channel line/resistance. Its often said that its a bad signal when the Dow and Nasdaq are not moving in tandem.

One other omen I heard this morning on Bloomberg tv Europe, is that all the previous big moves have happened approximately 500 days apart... care to guess/count how many days since that major Dow low of 7200 on the 17th Oct 2002?

Anyway, for my part I only go by what the chart indicates... if the trend line is broken I jump ship, otherwise I stick with the up trend. so far the QQQ up trend is still intact even though we are setting right at the trend line.

good luck to all
ssb

 

[Grand Master B]

Excellent work ssb. Much appreciated.

The trend line isn't broken yet, but it does look ready to go.

Quote from ssb:

Thank you GM.

That is a much appreciated compliment sine I write the software myself- which I hope to release as shareware in the near future.

One disturbing thing about the channel cycle this time around is that while the Nasdaq is setting at the lower trend line/support, the Dow is setting at the upper channel line/resistance. Its often said that its a bad signal when the Dow and Nasdaq are not moving in tandem.

One other omen I heard this morning on Bloomberg tv Europe, is that all the previous big moves have happened approximately 500 days apart... care to guess/count how many days since that major Dow low of 7200 on the 17th Oct 2002?

Anyway, for my part I only go by what the chart indicates... if the trend line is broken I jump ship, otherwise I stick with the up trend. so far the QQQ up trend is still intact even though we are setting right at the trend line.

good luck to all
ssb

 

[waggie945]

The Channel Trendline that "ssb" refers to in his chart is about 500 points away . . .

Yeah Grand Master, it sure does look ready to break it.

Not!

 

[ssb]

Quote from waggie945:

The Channel Trendline that "ssb" refers to in his chart is about 500 points away . . .

Yeah Grand Master, it sure does look ready to break it.

Not!

True the dow is some 500 points away from the trend line, however, GM is perhaps referring the QQQ chart which is quite close to breaking the trend line. Today's QQQ low of 36.00 is not far from breaking the trend line- I would say if we break 35.75 then I would consider the trend line broken. And even if that does happen, it may not be that significant while the dow is well above the trend line.

 

[T-REX]

within 3-5 days the ES will rally.

 

[waggie945]

The DOW JONES has now fallen 5-days in a row, something that has not happened since a stretch in January of 2003.

 

[T-REX]

Quote from waggie945:

The DOW JONES has now fallen 5-days in a row, something that has not happened since a stretch in January of 2003.

could take another 3-5 days to completely washout!

 

[Grand Master B]

Quote from ssb:

True the dow is some 500 points away from the trend line, however, GM is perhaps referring the QQQ chart which is quite close to breaking the trend line. Today's QQQ low of 36.00 is not far from breaking the trend line- I would say if we break 35.75 then I would consider the trend line broken. And even if that does happen, it may not be that significant while the dow is well above the trend line.

Correct ssb, well said. The QQQ is hovering dangerously close to the trendline. Once it goes, it will create a chink in the armor, and eventually the other indices will follow.

 

[Grand Master B]

It looks like the moving average has held so far. But I believe it's just a head-fake, that will be over-run with selling early next week. I look for the sma to be penetrated.

 

[Grand Master B]

Quote from ssb:

True the dow is some 500 points away from the trend line, however, GM is perhaps referring the QQQ chart which is quite close to breaking the trend line. Today's QQQ low of 36.00 is not far from breaking the trend line- I would say if we break 35.75 then I would consider the trend line broken. And even if that does happen, it may not be that significant while the dow is well above the trend line.

Good job, ssb. The QQQ trendline has held. It looks like it's powerful support, and that helps prop the entire market.