U.K. Posts Biggest Budget Deficit Since World War II
April 22 (Bloomberg) -- Britain registered its biggest annual budget deficit since the second world war as the political dispute over the government finances intensified.
The 152.8 billion-pound ($234 billion) shortfall in the fiscal year through March was 76 percent higher than a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. In March, the deficit was 23.5 billion pounds, the biggest monthly gap since records began in 1993. The figure was in line with the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.
With the election two weeks away, parties are sparring over how to tackle the largest deficit in the Group of Seven. The Conservative opposition yesterday raised the specter of an International Monetary Fund bailout if the vote produces an indecisive result.
âItâs a reminder that the key economic issue facing the electorate is the deficit,â said David Tinsley, an economist at National Australia Bank in London and a former Bank of England official.
The pound was down 0.1 percent at $1.5392 as of 11:57 a.m. in London, having earlier gained as much as 0.4 percent.
Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who faces his opposition challengers tonight in the second of three live televised debates, is fighting the election by arguing that Conservative plans to cut spending this year risk wrecking the recovery.
Hung Parliament
Polls show both parties losing support to the Liberal Democrats, raising the prospect that Labour will emerge as the largest party in Parliament and remain in power with Liberal Democrat support.
Conservative economics spokesman George Osborne yesterday warned that Britain could be forced to appeal to the IMF for help if voters choose a parliament where no party has overall control.
âIf markets feel we donât have the confidence to deal with our debts, then weâd have to call the IMF in, and that is a statement of fact,â Osborne said during a debate BBC television debate. âWeâve got to be aware in this country of the consequences of political instability.â
The deficit in the last fiscal year was slightly lower than the 156 billion pounds forecast by Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling in his budget in March. Excluding financial- sector interventions, the shortfall was 163.4 billion pounds compared with a Treasury prediction of 166.5 billion pounds.
Ballooning Deficit
The deficit, which was 2.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2007-2008, ballooned as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression plunged Britain into an 18-month recession. Borrowing excluding interventions amounted to 11.6 percent of GDP last year.
Signs of improvement emerged in the March figures, which showed revenue rising 3.8 percent, the fourth increase in five months, as taxes from corporate profits and sales of goods and services gained. Spending climbed 11 percent.
A measure of the cash entering and leaving the Treasury showed a 25.8 billion-pound deficit last month. Economists predicted a 31.3 billion-pound shortfall, according to the median forecast of 11 economists. Total net debt climbed to 62 percent of GDP, or 890 billion pounds, from 60.5 percent of GDP in February.
âPainfulâ Cuts
While the Conservatives have pledged to go further and faster than Labour plans to cut the deficit in half by 2014, âpainfulâ cuts beyond the efficiency savings already pledged by both parties will be needed to repair the public finances, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said in a report yesterday.
âNone of the parties has been clear enough to spell out how theyâll cut the deficit if theyâre elected,â Colin Ellis, an economist at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Ltd. in London and a former Bank of England official, said in an interview. âThe government doesnât want to do that and so neither do the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats because theyâre all running scared of frightening the electorate.â
Labour and the Liberal Democrats yesterday dismissed the Conservativesâ warnings about a hung parliament as scaremongering. Campaigning in southwest England today, Brown defended his decision to delay spending cuts until next year.
âWeâve got to secure the recovery now,â he told factory workers in Bristol. âWeâve worked so hard to secure growth and we want to sustain that growth over the next few months and I would urge people not to do anything that put that recovery at risk.â
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