Retail Sales: +.3% January

Iy you were only using this retail number what does this all mean in trading terms? Short stocks, Long stocks and why?

Im not an economist just curious what the number reaveals?:confused:
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

yea it'll now take 3 months to get proper holiday sale figures.

What will ultimately happen:

1. Weak holiday sales will be disregarded as due to "gift card purchases"

2. When the gift cards are redeemed, they will be mixed in with current sales... and the Gummint will say, "don't worry, be happy... retail sales are doing just fine".
 
Quote from Shagi:

Iy you were only using this retail number what does this all mean in trading terms? Short stocks, Long stocks and why?

Im not an economist just curious what the number reaveals?:confused:

In trading terms, it means "most fundamental considerations are not reliable".
 
Quote from optioncoach:

That seems wierd no? I mean the store got the money already when the gift card was purchased. Whether you use accrual or cash accounting it seems like it should count as a sale at that moment. All that is happening is delivery is occurring at a later date of the product. If this is how they do it, it leads to a distortion of the data it seems.

Only if you purchase an AMEX gift card I would think does the store not get paid until it is actually used. I wonder if the data looks into that.

I understand the company does not match a product sale with the cash inflow until the actual sale is made so maybe that is why they wait to count it until then but they are getting the money upfront. Maybe they delay counting it in revenues and treat is a deferred asset. Can lead to unintended manipulation of the data or misrepresentation without trying to.



Posted 12/23/2003 3:29 AM

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Happy holidays elude Wal-Mart, retailers
More shoppers proceed to checkout online


Retailers eager for gift-card proceeds
By Lorrie Grant, USA TODAY
Retailers — like consumers — are hooked on gift cards, despite their potential to mess up earnings.

Perhaps no retailer knows that better than Wal-Mart (WMT), where heavy demand for holiday gift cards is slamming December sales, currently hovering at the low end of its 3% to 5% growth forecast.

The problem: Strong gains in gift-card sales can threaten the bottom line if consumers delay redeeming them. That's because gift-card purchases can't immediately be counted as sales. The purchase is logged as a liability until the card is swapped for merchandise.

So, to benefit the 2003 sales year, most retailers are depending on millions of holiday gift-card recipients to spend by the time their fiscal year ends Jan. 31.

Still, retailers say that gift cards foster customer loyalty, help win new customers and often coax consumers into spending more than the value on the card. They are so popular this holiday shopping season that sales are expected to hit $17.2 billion, or 8% of all sales, according to the National Retail Federation.

"There is only a 5% incidence where someone doesn't redeem a gift card within the first 30 days of receiving it, and that gap has been closing over the years," says Mike Brewer of Stored Value Systems, which processes gift-card transactions.

Still, retailers that wrap up the year in December have a greater urgency for gift-card redemption.

Major retailers closing books in December:


Gift cards cannot be immediately counted as sales according to this article.

Remember Google is your friend. :)
 
Quote from trkarl:



Gift cards cannot be immediately counted as sales according to this article.

Remember Google is your friend. :)

Yeah I did not say gnome was wrong, just that it did not make sense to count gift cards that way. That is why I did not google it. :).

It does make sense as someone mentioned how you need inventory to match it off against for clean accounting but it certainly will distort sales figures for many X-mas' to come.
 
Quote from trkarl:

Posted 12/23/2003 3:29 AM

Advertisement
RELATED STORIES
Retail industry
Happy holidays elude Wal-Mart, retailers
More shoppers proceed to checkout online


Retailers eager for gift-card proceeds
By Lorrie Grant, USA TODAY
Retailers — like consumers — are hooked on gift cards, despite their potential to mess up earnings.

Perhaps no retailer knows that better than Wal-Mart (WMT), where heavy demand for holiday gift cards is slamming December sales, currently hovering at the low end of its 3% to 5% growth forecast.

The problem: Strong gains in gift-card sales can threaten the bottom line if consumers delay redeeming them. That's because gift-card purchases can't immediately be counted as sales. The purchase is logged as a liability until the card is swapped for merchandise.

So, to benefit the 2003 sales year, most retailers are depending on millions of holiday gift-card recipients to spend by the time their fiscal year ends Jan. 31.

Still, retailers say that gift cards foster customer loyalty, help win new customers and often coax consumers into spending more than the value on the card. They are so popular this holiday shopping season that sales are expected to hit $17.2 billion, or 8% of all sales, according to the National Retail Federation.

"There is only a 5% incidence where someone doesn't redeem a gift card within the first 30 days of receiving it, and that gap has been closing over the years," says Mike Brewer of Stored Value Systems, which processes gift-card transactions.

Still, retailers that wrap up the year in December have a greater urgency for gift-card redemption.

Major retailers closing books in December:


Gift cards cannot be immediately counted as sales according to this article.

Remember Google is your friend. :)

Lol that is screwed up accounting.

A gift card sale is a sale, who cares if its been redeemed or not? The stores dont lose anything if the cards arent ultimately redeemed, do they?
 
It wasn't so bad in the beginning with gift certificates, so it didn't highly reflect on many stores sheets...but as demand for them surged, the realization set in that it's going to begin to screw up December sales when it counts the most, so I'm sure some adjustments were made to accommodate and "even" things out.

As expected, it helped drive the Dow up...considering forecasts had it swinging the other way.
 
I still have two in my wallet, one from home Depot I forget the other, left over from Christmas- it is the most annoying gift to get...
(apologies to my brother)
 
Quote from gnome:

I believe gift cards are not counted as "sales" when the cards are purchased, but rather when the cards are redeemed.

They are booked as deferred revenue when purchased.

John
 
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