Retail Day Trading Journal

I agree with you about flexibility. I have no pride when it comes to trading/investing. Be our own mother-in-law is my rule. We need to be right for our bottom line.

There are 3 components in trading:

1. Fundamentals: We can always find good sectors/stocks to trade

2. TA: Be simpe and do not complicate things. Be extremely disciplined and objective. Have a clear mind when looking at charts. Look both ways, top down and bottom up.

3. Psychology: Listen, collect facts and make our own decisions. Do not let CNC, Cramer, Fast Money, etc.to blind us.
Many times the media said the market was going to test the March bottom and my analysis said no, I got to trust me!!!

Listen to all but trust only us!!! If we make mistakes then learn and try not to repeat.

Learning is the foundation of everything we do so I didn't list it as #1. Learning to be a better person by sharing the talents that God gave us, the wealth that we are blessed with.


Back to the market. Please look at the DIA chart, RSI is moving down to 50 level now, it's not overbought at all. The media keeps saying we went up so much from March. How about we went down huge from Oct. 2007? The market is about the future. Each time is unique. I do not like people talking about seasoning stuff, that's for the weather man.

Job numbers tomorrow. We will see.

Have a happy day tomorrow.
 
Regarding UNG, down volumes continue to by huge. Who else is selling, bo more sellers right? Wait until the first reversal cndle is confirmed then we can step in safely.

See the bear flag formed the third week in August ? We could predict the target by using the extention from $14.19 at beginning of August and the bear flag.
 
The absolute bottom for UNG is 0. Thats my target for that etf;)

In 1998 I pulled up to a gas station and the gasoline was 95 cents a gallon. I know that AIG used to be a fine company that everyone respected. Hank Greenberg built it up nice. It was quite shocking to see it selling for some pocket change.

So I think UNG will go down to shocking lows and there is a chance the ETF will be shut down entirely. A 9 dollar stock can go to 4.50 and quick under the right cirumstances.

Just know that its going down and the bottom is anyone's guess.

Quote from cybercash28:

Regarding UNG, down volumes continue to by huge. Who else is selling, bo more sellers right? Wait until the first reversal cndle is confirmed then we can step in safely.

See the bear flag formed the third week in August ? We could predict the target by using the extention from $14.19 at beginning of August and the bear flag.
More...
 
Sorry I have not caught up with this journal. Just been busy doing many things.

I want to share some charts tonight and a theory I have when the market might correct.

I looked at my charts for any hint of when it might come.

The chart that clued me in was the $NYA composite. The two orange colored areas are very similar in shape. The only difference is the speed of which the pattern was executed. During both those time periods there was a financial panic of some type and intervention by the federal reserve.

If the two colored structures act in a similar fashion, then the pivot I feel will come somewhere around 7013. At this rate of rise, that will be right around the first week of October. The correction will be sharp and probably be about 15%. Im going to assume that the left shoulder and the right shoulder will have some type of symetry.

The converse theory is that this is not a head and shoulders pattern, but a broadening pattern where price will surpass the head eventually. If this is the case, then we probably wont see a correction until maybe next year.

1zgzyv6.jpg


As for the $SPX, I came up with a target of around 1057 which is a rough estimation based upon the slope of the current trend assuming that the correction will begin the first week of October.

3atfo.jpg


The VIX appears to be in freefall which supports the broadening theory of the NYA. It would have to pivot now in order for the October correction theory to hold up.

2hmpz60.jpg


For the Nasdaq, I made some highlights of two interesting structures demonstrating symetry. The tops do look similar to the bottoms. If the VIX breaks down through the channel to the 07 lows then I feel the NASDAQ will probably take off to year 2000 highs.

If there is a correction in October, the level I have noted with the horizontal line.

It seems far-fetched to believe the Nasdaq might take off in a year 2000 bubble, but the similar circumstances lead up to both bubbles. There was a financial panic followed by federal reserve intervention.

In the year 2000, everyone watched in bewilderment as everything took off. Now everyone's mouths are open wondering when it will turn around.

qr12lu.jpg


Look at how the currency in circulation spiked up right around the time of the tech bubble. Now look at how it spiked during the current time.

WCURCIR_Max_630_378.png


Now look at the monetary base chart which shows what looks like a spike during the year 2000 period. Since the monetary base has been so diluted, you need a manifying glass to see it on this chart. Look closely, there is also a spike right during the year 2003 time period indicating that the fed turned up the electronic money creation.

BASE_Max_630_378.png


The two theories I have are that the markets will correct in October by about 15% and then followed by a spike that will send the indexes surge to around 1300 or they will simply not correct and keep moving due to the diluted monetary base.
 
I've learned a few lessons these last few weeks and I have tailored my style now for more successful trades.

First lesson. Trading the indexes in any form is a fool's game. Well, a fool's game at least for myself. I dont know how anyone else is doing or feels about the matter, but my opinion is that its a fool's game. I will not trade any derivative of any index from this point forward unless the entire market is in freefall like in September 2008.

I am thinking of risk vs. reward. If you trade the indexes day in and day out then its a setup for failure eventually. I made some money from it and then lost. No good for me and so no more TZA/TNA or anything else that mimics an index.

Second lesson. When you see the financial news pick up on a trade, then the trade in that stock is essentially over and done. Anything they talk about means its too late. Dont go fishing off of the yahoo top gainer's list or any list where the stocks seem to have jumped by over 10%. Usually stocks on that list have reached pricing extremes and will most likely pull back.

Third lesson. Any strategy, stock or setup discussed on a message board is basically useless. I wouldnt trust it.

Fourth lesson. Shorting anything is a fool's game unless the market is in obvious correction. There is not as much money to be made shorting as there is by going long. The whipsaws involved in shorting can be extreme. Its a game for those who want to have hero like feelings, but not hero like returns.

So it comes down to what works for me. The answer is going to be hard work. Digging into thousands of charts on the weekend and coming up with some bullish breakout setups.

Its the only way to make money and how many successful traders have made it both in retail and institutional. I have watched from afar reading old posts and new on this board. The best traders on here are patient and wait for that high probability swing. Honestly, the worst traders seem to be in the ES Journal. Those who trade daily the indexes expecting to make their check that way. Its my opinion, but that is just a sucker's game.

I have already identified 64 different stocks that have massive upside. Those stocks are the components of the NASDAQ Transportation index.

If you want to make some cash, then scan through the charts of these 64 cash-kings and find some setups. Thats what Im doing.;)

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=^IXTR&c=0

j0y0du.jpg
 
I found 150 stocks with the following criteria:

AVG 2 week volume over 1 million
52 week high of 10 or greater
Priced between 1 and 10

Im going to go through this list and find bullish setups.
 

Attachments

This is what I came up with from the list of the next breakout stocks. They all seemed to revolve around:

- energy/drilling names that I little knew
- capital funding mortgage companies I little knew
- small time reits
- dry bulk shippers
- airlines
 
Retail,

Thank you for sharing your hard work. Nothing better than to be able to share ideas/mistakes with a team.

I traded FAS/FAZ/TNA/TZA many times and didn't like it. For sure I do not want to hold overnight unless I hold some other stocks and I want to hedge because I'm not sure what the market will do the next day. As soon as I know what the market looks like, I quickly make changes to my trading porfolio.

I have 3 accounts:

1. I own mutual funds like Janus Overseas. I do not have knowlege of what works in the emerging market. JAOSX is up 68% ytd.

2. A little bit longer term porfolio. I pick stocks with solid fundamentals and buy when they pull back to key supports, bollinger bands like GS, AAPL, NVEC , CRM, FCX, etc;. Basicly buy when oversold and sell when overbought or when I see a candle signals the reversal.

I know these stocks well enough without constantly looking at the charts.

3. Trading accounts: Any thing moves I trade. I know enough stocks and how they move based on floats, short %, etc. How they repond to the market, news. For example HIG, LVS, MGM, X, FCX, etc..the ones I posted today. Trading 300 shraes of X when the market begins to move even 10 points (dow) can move X 50 cents. So I can catch 75 cents per share and can gain about $250. When the intraday chart shows reversal or a stock doesn't move as I thought then I get out very quickly. I can enter the trade again even at a higher price if I'm comfortable. When I'm uncomfortable, I'm not in a trade.

For the stocks that I day trade, I use the top down approach first using daily charts, hourly charts, 30 minutes, 15 minutes to determine key supports/resistance, trend, patterns. Then I use the bottom up from 2 minute/5 mintutes charts. For each stock, I have an idea of its move after it gooes above/below certain level. For example, when HIG went above $25.16 I could tell that the next level it's close to $26 assuming market is still strong.


Well, I also love to short biotech stocks after people come in and pull them up to the moon. I love to drive them down to earth again. For example JAZZ, SVA.

Happy tarding.
 
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