Retail.... 90% lose?

One has only to read the messages posted on the ET boards to see the misinformation and lies put out on a daily basis. And the ones spreading disinformation are the ET trolls. Most come out of the woodwork, out of nowhere. Others have been here a while, yet still posting disinformation and lies? Maybe, they do not know any better. They are consistently, losing monies too. How do I know? Just read all the whining and crying and moaning when they lose big. These same people who lecture others on how to trade when they do not know how to handle their own trades?
 
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I'm sure the number is as correct today as ever with the barrier to entry virtually being zero if you live in the developed world. Many are called, but few are chosen.

I once read a comment here saying that we should first tighten up the definition of being a trader and how simply funding an account doesn't make you one. Just like buying state of the art running shoes doesn't make you a marathon runner.

It would be interesting to know the average preparation time a retail trader undertakes before putting on his first trade and putting his money at risk.

Further, the failure rate for those that actually take it very seriously would be more interesting. I'm sure the failure rate would still be high, but probably not as high as 90 %.
 
I still don't get it why we don't just look for a qualified consistent looser, and just trade the opposite direction.

Even better would be, a function where the trading platform would simply do the opposite of the order sent, but continue to show all info as if the trades where taken as the trader decided, including showing negative pnl instead of positive, to increase the emotional pressure in order to get more losing (winning) trades...

ANYONE HERE LOOSING CONSISTENTLY 10-30% A MONTH ??

Trader Dante claims he had a friend which became multi millionaire by trading for years against other peoples trades...
 
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I doubt 90% of retail traders lose money consistently.

It would be interesting to see a breakdown by account size.

Of course if, like someone in another thread, you want to open an account with 100 USD and make thousands within days... well...

What I do think is a large percentage of day traders that are undercapitalized, overleveraged, spend too much time "watching" the markets (as opposed to ***studying*** one or two markets) and are gunning for impossible returns would be much better off if they just put their money in SPDRs and went to get a job or go on holiday.

Most money managers would kill their family for a 80% yearly return. Now achieve that on a 10,000 usd account and what do you get? A fraction of the minimum wage? What happens when you get a -15% (or worse) year?

I know because I've been there :D


TheMordy said:
I still don't get it why we don't just look for a qualified consistent looser, and just trade the opposite direction.
More...

Because the problem lies not in the direction or the timing, or the setup, but in the management (let losers run, cut profits short, overtrade, etc.).

I don't always agree with @Buy1Sell2, but I do agree with him that prudent risk management is [almost] the only true edge.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...ment-is-the-only-true-edge-in-trading.292728/
 
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TheMordy said:
I still don't get it why we don't just look for a qualified consistent looser, and just trade the opposite direction.

Even better would be, a function where the trading platform would simply do the opposite of the order sent, but continue to show all info as if the trades where taken as the trader decided, including showing negative pnl instead of positive, to increase the emotional pressure in order to get more losing (winning) trades...

ANYONE HERE LOOSING CONSISTENTLY 10-30% A MONTH ??

Trader Dante claims he had a friend which became multi millionaire by trading for years against other peoples trades...
More...
That was exactly what smallfil was referring to....
 
TheMordy said:
I still don't get it why we don't just look for a qualified consistent looser, and just trade the opposite direction.

Even better would be, a function where the trading platform would simply do the opposite of the order sent, but continue to show all info as if the trades where taken as the trader decided, including showing negative pnl instead of positive, to increase the emotional pressure in order to get more losing (winning) trades...

ANYONE HERE LOOSING CONSISTENTLY 10-30% A MONTH ??

Trader Dante claims he had a friend which became multi millionaire by trading for years against other peoples trades...
More...
Say you had a sports gambler buddy that lost almost all the time. Maybe betting the opposite to them would pay off (straight up which team wins or scores the most points or covers the spread whatever). Still nothing is ever guaranteed.

Trading is different, putting aside straight vanilla long/short one-way binaries or option plays.

One trader goes long XYZ and after exiting has a loss. Another trader go short XYZ and after exiting also has a loss. Happens. Where was the advantage, if say both had poor trade entry and/or exit locations?
 
Its a Valid topic for a market that most people have no clue regarding where a top will be. But the simple true fact is ..90% of all retail traders lose money consistently. The market is very very well designed, precision tuned, real-time re-adjusted..to take retail traders money. And its very very affective.

However...the macro trends and the general index designs and weightings are designed to allow long-term investors of indexes to consistently earn money. There are some massive draw downs (2000, 2009, 2020). But if you hold and continue buying, the market will come back to you and continue moving higher...its just designed that way.

Nowadays, There are plenty of long-term bull markets where even the 90% retail traders look good. The very obvious bubbles and the trendy tech stock categories and sectors. But, anytime we move out of the obvious bubble and trendy techs...or if there is a change in president or congress or if Fed directed interest rates no longer seem obvious...the 90% will take some bad hits because the warm fuzzy market has changed and is no longer easy for them. If there is solid down trends that last a while...the 90% retail start crumbling and blowing up.

Bitcoin will kill a 90% retail trader within 6 months usually. Bitcoin has a huge body count. Meat grinder. Meme stocks will also kill a 90% retail trader within 6 months (WallStreetBets has killed entire battalions of meme traders). And IPOs & SPACs...will cause the 90% retail trader to take huge hits and start to crumble. I wont even speak about sht coins or NFTs.

Bitcoin buy and hold investors seem to do pretty well.

The only way to avoid all this as a retail trader...its to stick to the /es. Follow it religiously...become a specialist in it...watch it over night...learn to make money consistently over night...then use what you learned overnight to trade during market hours. Study the golden standard books on technical analysis of the futures markets. Learn and fully understand how news affects markets (es is always open and trading..so news is always affecting it.) Pick a time frame and stick with it long term. Keep a journal of what seems to be working and what is not working.
 
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