resumption of the bull market?

[cnms2]

Is this a contrarian indicator? It looks so comparing its chart with S&P500's.

Quote from gharghur2:

Investors Intelligence posted last night the lower bullish sentiment since March 2003!
Bulls minus bears 11.8 %

 

[gharghur2]

Quote from cnms2:

Is this a contrarian indicator? It looks so comparing its chart with S&P500's.

Exactly,
The less bulls (more bears) there are around, the greater is the potential buying power to enter the market when it starts trending. This is a massively bullish reading!

 

[whitster]

also...

in general - strong market moves are caused when the market HAS to move. in general, markets move when these things happen

strong bears mean lots of shorts and puts. when their stops start getting hit, and ESPECIALLY margin call liquidations, that 's when markets really move - because they have to. it's a cascading effect.

without bears, not only is there nobody left to buy, but as soon as longs start getting stopped out/margin called, there is nowhere to go but down

that is why market climbs a "wall of worry"

fwiw, the thread title is kindof funny considering we have been in a great bull market for several years, just not the same issues as in the 90's

 

[gharghur2]

Thanks for the input ... lots of bears in them woods

The bull market the thread refers to is the one that started in October 2002.

 

[cnms2]

It's always a matter of perspective: on a 10 year chart it looks like a 61.8% retracement of a bearish trend ...

Quote from whitster:

...
fwiw, the thread title is kindof funny considering we have been in a great bull market for several years, just not the same issues as in the 90's

 

[gharghur2]

Yes, it looked liked that in the 1930's too

Btw, the commericals have been net buyers since late January, and the small/large specs net sellers. Smart money talks

 

[cnms2]

I guess they call them "smart money" because they're eventually right, but they are right not because they are smart.

If 1930 parallel continues, bulls are still not out of the woods.

Quote from gharghur2:

Yes, it looked liked that in the 1930's too

Btw, the commericals have been net buyers since late January, and the small/large specs net sellers. Smart money talks

 

[EliteInterest]

I recently saw a chart that aligned the DJI peak from 1929, with Nasdaq Composite peak from 2000. It looked nicely correlated in terms of price % and time.. bottomed around the same time, with similar percentage drop. DJI closing data is available from http://djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?event=showavgIndexData. Anyone want to do an overlay and post it here? You could try 1929-1939, compared with 2000-present.

 

[gharghur2]

Quote from cnms2:

I guess they call them "smart money" because they're eventually right, but they are right not because they are smart.

If 1930 parallel continues, bulls are still not out of the woods.

The bulls?
1932 created a bottom, like 2002.
Market rallied until 1937 ... for us 2007 ?
So far it looks fairly similar.
But we have a ways to go on the upside to complete the comparison.

 

[gharghur2]

Quote from EliteInterest:

I recently saw a chart that aligned the DJI peak from 1929, with Nasdaq Composite peak from 2000. It looked nicely correlated in terms of price % and time.. bottomed around the same time, with similar percentage drop. DJI closing data is available from http://djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?event=showavgIndexData. Anyone want to do an overlay and post it here? You could try 1929-1939, compared with 2000-present.

Hi!

I did that comparison back in September. Posted the results on OEW.
You are right! The similarities are remarkable.

http://spaces.msn.com/caldaroEW/

dated 9/21/05 in the archives