resumption of the bull market?

Quote from invaliduser:

The ndx has broken the sept and oct highs and is close to the late july top, yet the sox is really no where near testing any of the prior highs. Will it catch up or is it just rallying in the established downtrend?
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The recent downtrend in the SOX index appears to be over.
See chart:

Will it catch up? Depends on what you mean. I see it reaching the upper limit of the 1 1/2 year channel at 500+. If it can get through there, it could then approach the 560 high.

All the NAZ needs to keep rolling is for the SOX to stay quiet :)
 

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Quote from steveosborne:
10-31-05 11:36 AM
Quote from areyoukidding?:

Its below $60 now and it isnt that tranquil. I will bet you it goes lower. would u like to wager?
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It depends what you mean by lower. From $59.50(now) to something like $59.20, or something more... substantial?
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Technically speaking crude oil is due for some rebound.
 

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Quote from steveosborne:

I also haven't changed my mind about $60/$61 being the gravitational area for CL prices over the next few weeks.
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This is the crude oil weekly chart. Averages turned bearish, but MACD histogram is indecisive.
 

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Quote from cnms2:

It depends what you mean by lower. From $59.50(now) to something like $59.20, or something more... substantial?
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Technically speaking crude oil is due for some rebound. [/QUOTE]

How about a break above my downtrend to set up a bearish flag?
See your chart below:
 

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Quote from gharghur2:
Quote from cnms2:
Technically speaking crude oil is due for some rebound.
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How about a break above my downtrend to set up a bearish flag?
See your chart below:
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On this chart I see three bullish elements that might forecast the interruption of the September - October down trend:
  • the MACD histogram triple bullish divergence
  • the MACD bullish crossover
  • the 4 bar MA crossing up the 9 bar MA, as well as their change in slope
I don't see (yet) a bearish flag.

I don't trade or follow closely crude oil futures; I follow them just as a part of the overall picture, so I didn't look at other technicals. Obviously technical analysis is not infallible, it is just a way of trying to bend the odds a little, but this chart signals are tradeable. The rest is money management: position sizing and exits.

Easily ... not?
:)
 
Quote from cnms2:

How about a break above my downtrend to set up a bearish flag?
See your chart below:
More...
On this chart I see three bullish elements that might forecast the interruption of the September - October down trend:
  • the MACD histogram triple bullish divergence
  • the MACD bullish crossover
  • the 4 bar MA crossing up the 9 bar MA, as well as their change in slope
I don't see (yet) a bearish flag. :) [/QUOTE]

chris...

I see the histogram tri-divergence, the crossover and the slope. Maybe it will bounce here and create a bearish flag, just above the trendline? Lots of that going on these days...
 
I liked this quote:
"... enter cautiously but exit fast. This is the professional approach to trading, the total opposite of the amateur's style. Beginners jump into trades without thinking too much and take forever to get out, hoping and waiting for the market to turn around."
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Good Morning America,

I finally figured out how to create charts from my futures account. We're armed and dangerous now :)

I've been watching ES and NQ unfold, so it was easy to slap the labels on the advance. Mind you I'm not a futures guy, only an EW guy reading the charts. Here's my take on ES:

At first it looks kind of sloppy, but it is very clear if you know where the advance began. The Oct 13th low was not the orthodox low for ES/SPX or YM/DOW, it was only the price low. Remember the triple retest? Oct 20th was the orthodox low for the ES/SPX, and Oct 21st was the low for YM/DOW. The 13th was only the low for the NQ/NAZ.

***

Counting up from the orthodox low of 1174 in ES we have a clear five wave structure ending at about 1205, labeled wave 1. Followed by a steep correction to about 1180, labeled wave 2.

The first advance of wave 3 is labeled (wave i) which tops at about 1212.50 (wave 3 is subdividing). A correction (wave ii) to 1205. Then a subdivided (wave iii) not yet complete (labeled 1-2-3-4). Notice wave 3 is only about 10 points: check you numbers to make sure. Thus, wave 5 CAN NOT be longer, because wave 3 is shorter than wave 1. So if wave 4 ended at 1220, then wave 5 needs to end before 1230. This would complete (wave iii). Then a correctional (wave iv) followed by another advance (wave v) to end 3. Sounds complicated, but it's clear and simple. Just ask!
Chart below:

Good trading ... just reading waves remember :)
 

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