SOLD!! Maybe just maybe Santa Claus came early this year. All the bulls are coming out from under their rocks again.
ST top anyone?
ST top anyone?
resumption of the bull market?
- Thread starter gharghur2
- Start date
I haven't changed my opinion yet.
Some fundamentals? My economic guru just posted some points I thought I'd pass along:
Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Fed
As you know, the Fed raised their Fed funds target for the umpteenth time yesterday to 4% and Ben Bernanke, who will likely take over as Chairman when Alan sails into the sunset, told reporters the Fed would likely keep raising rates until they saw signs that the economy was slowing (i.e., after it is too late)...
1. Asked if this proves the Fed targets growth, not just inflation as they claim. Answer--yep. And it also means that Fed policy is determined BY the economy, not the other way around...
2. Why is the economy still so strong (as shown in recent economic reports) after all that tightening? Answer: It's not the rates that make recessions, it's credit availability...
3. What would the Fed have to do to kill the economy today? Answer: The way Fed policy hits the economy is by tightening over and over again until they break something...
4. How hard will it be for the Fed to contain the inflation they are worried about? Answer: slam dunk. While everyone is looking at rising oil prices there is a sleeping giant of deflationary pressures in the balance sheets. The Delphi, GM, and airlines headlines all indicate the presence of liabilities that cannot be serviced in today's competitive global economy. Their resolution will involve asset sales...
5. Conclusion: Bernanke is going to have an easy time containing inflation. Some time in early 2006 I expect the Fed to be driven off of their rising rate rhetoric. When that happens I want to own US equities.
His link: http://www.rutledgecapital.com/
Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Fed
As you know, the Fed raised their Fed funds target for the umpteenth time yesterday to 4% and Ben Bernanke, who will likely take over as Chairman when Alan sails into the sunset, told reporters the Fed would likely keep raising rates until they saw signs that the economy was slowing (i.e., after it is too late)...
1. Asked if this proves the Fed targets growth, not just inflation as they claim. Answer--yep. And it also means that Fed policy is determined BY the economy, not the other way around...
2. Why is the economy still so strong (as shown in recent economic reports) after all that tightening? Answer: It's not the rates that make recessions, it's credit availability...
3. What would the Fed have to do to kill the economy today? Answer: The way Fed policy hits the economy is by tightening over and over again until they break something...
4. How hard will it be for the Fed to contain the inflation they are worried about? Answer: slam dunk. While everyone is looking at rising oil prices there is a sleeping giant of deflationary pressures in the balance sheets. The Delphi, GM, and airlines headlines all indicate the presence of liabilities that cannot be serviced in today's competitive global economy. Their resolution will involve asset sales...
5. Conclusion: Bernanke is going to have an easy time containing inflation. Some time in early 2006 I expect the Fed to be driven off of their rising rate rhetoric. When that happens I want to own US equities.
His link: http://www.rutledgecapital.com/
I also haven't changed my mind about $60/$61 being the gravitational area for CL prices over the next few weeks.
Tony:
What do you make of the fact that NDX pulled up today so much more than Nasdaq?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^...m&q=l&c=^IXIC
The NDX is just playing catch up, it has been lagging the past 10 days or so. chart:
What do you make of the fact that NDX pulled up today so much more than Nasdaq?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^...m&q=l&c=^IXIC
The NDX is just playing catch up, it has been lagging the past 10 days or so. chart:
The ndx has broken the sept and oct highs and is close to the late july top, yet the sox is really no where near testing any of the prior highs. Will it catch up or is it just rallying in the established downtrend?