resumption of the bull market?

Today's price action looks more like a retracement than a reversal. We'll see... In the past when we disagreed you were right. :)
Quote from gharghur2:

At 8:30 AM the government released the payroll report for February, strong numbers. Europe immediately shot up 1% on our news? We reacted with some more volatility. When the stock indices opened a wave of selling hit the futures pits as the bond market was selling off in reaction to the report. The NDX quickly made a new low for the move at exactly EW pivot point 1634, rallied off that point about 8 points, and 15 minutes later came slamming down again. And it held again!
The test of the lows in the NDX is in place, the previous low was NDX 1637. I can count a completed zigzag from the recent highs, to coincide with the previous lengthy zigzag, creating a major flat formation.
The key to this market right now is not the DOW/SPX that have been showing that they want to go higher. And it's not the NAZ which has been basically following the lead of the NDX. It is the NDX! In the spring rally of last year, the SPX/DOW diverged positively while the NDX/NAZ were making new lows to complete their patterns. It appears it is the situation again. Let's monitor this rally as it unfolds, but it's very possible that the lows are in.
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Since the DOW/SPX continue to rise in spite of the NAZ/NDX I'm taking a very close look at the NDX to determine if we do have a bottom in place.
First item of note is the MMI is currently more oversold than it was at the October lows: typical bottoming momentum.
Noted on thursday, the RSI gave a buy signal on the SPX/NAZ and NDX at the close, another sign of an impending low.
The daily chart is displaying positive divergences on the RSI and MACD at fridays lows. This has not occurred since the spring of 2005. The daily charts for the TRAN/DOW/R2K are displaying a nice double bottom on the RSI with the Feb/Mar lows.
On the NDX/NAZ hourly charts there are positive divergences again on the RSI and MACD. Shorter term, the NDX/NAZ 15min charts are also displaying these same positive divergences.
In conclusion, everything seems to be aligned for a substantial advance from current levels. It might take one more shakeout to complete the bottoming process. But it is completing!
 

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Thanks for your input, Tony. I wouldn't be surprised to see just about everything rise next week -- stocks, bonds and precious metals. I think a short-term bottom in bonds is near.
 
Quote from gharghur2:

Since the DOW/SPX continue to rise in spite of the NAZ/NDX I'm taking a very close look at the NDX to determine if we do have a bottom in place.
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I mostly watch the SPX, so I hadn't seen the NDX chart before. What about that obvious H&S formation? What about the longer-term negative divergence in the MACD?
 
Quote from newbunch:

I mostly watch the SPX, so I hadn't seen the NDX chart before. What about that obvious H&S formation? What about the longer-term negative divergence in the MACD?
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The head and shoulders probably created the selling and continuation of the correction.
The negative divergence is normal as it is cyclical on a daily chart, you need to look at a weekly chart.
The weekly displays a normal fifth wave momentum after such a strong third wave
 

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Bonds rallied, Goldman Sachs kicked off the earnings season with a great report, and Google won their/our privacy battle in the Supreme Court. Enough incredients for a rally, and to sustain a rally, and rally we did!

The DOW posted a new high, as did the NYA and the SPX confirmed its intermediate term uptrend with its own new high. The NAZ/NDX rallied nicely as they appear to be playing catch up. I'm still looking for a NAZ 2313 print tomorrow to confirm a new intermediate term uptrend kickoff in the growth sector. Go Naz!

btw, the is a reverse h/s pattern in the daily NAZ chart ...
 

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http://charts.futurescalpers.com/chief/qqqqsir[2].png

qqqqsir%5B2%5D.png
 
Nice chart!

But how many people really keep longs or shorts in the cubes, when they could just as easily trade NQ ?

With Investors Intelligence bullish readings at their lowest levels since May 03: 11.4%, not sire what to think of that chart :)
 
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