resumption of the bull market?
- Thread starter gharghur2
- Start date
For the very first time since this intermediate term trend began, the general market defied the weakness in the NDX and continued higher, pulling the NDX up with it. This is a very strong impulse wave. This particular advance, which began on Nov 15th has been relentless. So much so, that it is forcing us to change our short term count from that of an extending fifth wave, to an unfolding third wave. The recent one day breath and trin figures in the NAZ also confirm this count. I've posted two charts NAZ/SPX daily. They display the intermediate term wave progression from the beginning: NAZ Oct 13th, SPX Oct 21st.
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SHORT TERM: POSITIVE
From a purely wave count viewpoint, I can nearly count five waves up from the end of October. However, due to the strength of this advance I see this rally continuing as the waves continue to subdivide. On the very short term 5 day RSI, we are about as overbought as a stock market ever gets: a 90+ reading. Yet this recent seven day advance has shot right up, without one closing down day. Therefore, I would expect to see some divergences in momentum before even this particular rally ends. So I would have to conclude that this market is still going higher, before any appreciable correction occurs. Any, short term pullback would just be another opportunity to add to my current long positions.
http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
From a purely wave count viewpoint, I can nearly count five waves up from the end of October. However, due to the strength of this advance I see this rally continuing as the waves continue to subdivide. On the very short term 5 day RSI, we are about as overbought as a stock market ever gets: a 90+ reading. Yet this recent seven day advance has shot right up, without one closing down day. Therefore, I would expect to see some divergences in momentum before even this particular rally ends. So I would have to conclude that this market is still going higher, before any appreciable correction occurs. Any, short term pullback would just be another opportunity to add to my current long positions.
http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
I've been following the Elliott Wave for more than 20 years, and I am still amazed that it unfolds as accurately as that timepiece on your wrist. One only needs to read what it is graphically illustrating, rather than as most do, read into it what they want to see. If the stock market is truly a discounting mechanism of future events. Then the Elliott Wave is a graphic display of the totality of all those events. Food for thought!
SHORT TERM: POSITIVE
After the early to midweek selling concluded on wednesday, (ending wave iv), the market exploded upward thursday, (kicking off wave v), and nicely consolidated these gains on friday. We've labeled the thursday rally as wave 1 and todays consolidation as wave 2. Expecting the advance to resume on monday and probably top sometime next week. Today, again, the NAZ/NDX and SOX made new highs, while the SPX/DOW/TRAN lagged. In fact, the NDX closed at the high for the day! Everything seems to be going along as expected. We've posted new 15 minute charts. Best to your week and good trading!
http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
After the early to midweek selling concluded on wednesday, (ending wave iv), the market exploded upward thursday, (kicking off wave v), and nicely consolidated these gains on friday. We've labeled the thursday rally as wave 1 and todays consolidation as wave 2. Expecting the advance to resume on monday and probably top sometime next week. Today, again, the NAZ/NDX and SOX made new highs, while the SPX/DOW/TRAN lagged. In fact, the NDX closed at the high for the day! Everything seems to be going along as expected. We've posted new 15 minute charts. Best to your week and good trading!
http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
From the end of November, it appears that the four indices we mainly follow: NAZ/NDX/SPX/DOW were completing their wave 3 at different times. The DOW early last week, the NAZ/NDX late last week and the SPX this week. This explains the choppiness over the past week and a half. However, they all appear to be in wave 4 now and we'll keep an eye on the EW pivots, and momentum to determine a suitable bottom.
The key levels we're looking at are: NAZ 2230 and 2177, NDX 1671 and 1639, SPX 1249 and 1226. Wave 4 should find support at the first of these levels, or worse case, the second.
After wave 4 completes, expect a major rally for wave 5.
http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
The key levels we're looking at are: NAZ 2230 and 2177, NDX 1671 and 1639, SPX 1249 and 1226. Wave 4 should find support at the first of these levels, or worse case, the second.
After wave 4 completes, expect a major rally for wave 5.
http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
Is the short term correction behind us?
It may well be, but I would like to see how tomorrow unfolds first before making that assessment. We have been expecting the overbought condition in the intermediate term momentum indicators to ease somewhat during this short term correction. They have most certainly in the DOW, and somewhat in the SPX, but hardly at all in the NAZ/NDX as of yet. Our short term momentum indicators are currently overbought, and the NAZ/NDX are displaying some negative divergences: see 15 minute charts, 121305. Plus, the advance thus far off of last thursdays lows, seems kind of choppy, not impulsive. For now, I continue to label this advance as a B wave rally, a-b-c up from the lows, and still anticipate a C wave decline to end the correction.
http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
It may well be, but I would like to see how tomorrow unfolds first before making that assessment. We have been expecting the overbought condition in the intermediate term momentum indicators to ease somewhat during this short term correction. They have most certainly in the DOW, and somewhat in the SPX, but hardly at all in the NAZ/NDX as of yet. Our short term momentum indicators are currently overbought, and the NAZ/NDX are displaying some negative divergences: see 15 minute charts, 121305. Plus, the advance thus far off of last thursdays lows, seems kind of choppy, not impulsive. For now, I continue to label this advance as a B wave rally, a-b-c up from the lows, and still anticipate a C wave decline to end the correction.
http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
Posted earlier today:
When short term negative divergences don't seem to stop a rally, it is usually a sign that we are in an uptrend. The SPX/DOW has been the driving force in this advance, and the NDX/NAZ continues to lag, as the SPX has just made hew highs for the bull market. With the rally in the Bond market appearing bullish: fives waves up off the lows and another fives waves developing. I did some buying today. I may be early, but this advance is starting to look better from an EW perspective. Will take a closer look at the close.
When short term negative divergences don't seem to stop a rally, it is usually a sign that we are in an uptrend. The SPX/DOW has been the driving force in this advance, and the NDX/NAZ continues to lag, as the SPX has just made hew highs for the bull market. With the rally in the Bond market appearing bullish: fives waves up off the lows and another fives waves developing. I did some buying today. I may be early, but this advance is starting to look better from an EW perspective. Will take a closer look at the close.