I'd like some help with understanding a company and a trade. Kind of open an idea of mine for debate/discussion.
Background: I first stumbled onto this company by mistake. Perhaps I was a noob, subject to swaying in the wind of emotions. Asians were wearing masks in public. Bird flu spooked the press. This company likely got promoted or something, it grew leaps and bounds. I paid some tuition on it, likely back in 2007. Since then I have returned to it like a dog eats its own vomit.
The story today: This company is working on novel vaccine approaches using virus like particles. Traditional vaccines are made very differently. A virus is grown in a chicken egg, then inactivate by some method, the virus gets injected into a body which builds resistance in case of exposure. This company grows portions of the virus in a different manner (fall army worm?), creates a vaccine. Sounds a little sci-fi to me. They have some good candidates for seasonal flu and respiratory syncytial virus.
A side note for confidence: the two HPV vaccines put into the youth of the US are similarly made.
RSV is the largest cause for pediatric/newborn hospitalizations.
RSV also greatly effects the elderly.
Potential market thought to be $5B per annum.
Bill Gates helps fund via Path.
US Govt helps fund via Barda.
Market helps fund via dilution.
Uncle Fido owns >11% of shares.
Management buying shares.
Downside:
New pharma highly risky IMO.
Further dilution likely.
Trial failure possible.
Years likely before product on the market.
Prior to recent dilution I had $33-83 price target.
Novavax NVAX
I'm swinging a big bat.
Last time I asked for feedback was here: http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/tsla.224571/
Background: I first stumbled onto this company by mistake. Perhaps I was a noob, subject to swaying in the wind of emotions. Asians were wearing masks in public. Bird flu spooked the press. This company likely got promoted or something, it grew leaps and bounds. I paid some tuition on it, likely back in 2007. Since then I have returned to it like a dog eats its own vomit.
The story today: This company is working on novel vaccine approaches using virus like particles. Traditional vaccines are made very differently. A virus is grown in a chicken egg, then inactivate by some method, the virus gets injected into a body which builds resistance in case of exposure. This company grows portions of the virus in a different manner (fall army worm?), creates a vaccine. Sounds a little sci-fi to me. They have some good candidates for seasonal flu and respiratory syncytial virus.
A side note for confidence: the two HPV vaccines put into the youth of the US are similarly made.
RSV is the largest cause for pediatric/newborn hospitalizations.
RSV also greatly effects the elderly.
Potential market thought to be $5B per annum.
Bill Gates helps fund via Path.
US Govt helps fund via Barda.
Market helps fund via dilution.
Uncle Fido owns >11% of shares.
Management buying shares.
Downside:
New pharma highly risky IMO.
Further dilution likely.
Trial failure possible.
Years likely before product on the market.
Prior to recent dilution I had $33-83 price target.
Novavax NVAX
I'm swinging a big bat.
Last time I asked for feedback was here: http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/tsla.224571/
