'Respected posters' please post here

[atticus]

Quote from nonlinear5:

Stock prices will continue to rise and bond prices will continue to fall until parity is reached between the 10yr bond yield and the S&P earnings yield.

The SP500 earnings yield is approximately 6.4% on projected 2007 earnings. I'd imagine we'll see a large haircut on the SPX if the ten-year yield rallies 100-basis!

I'm not stating it won't happen, but IMO it's much more likely the SPX will fall to reach parity.

 

[flipflopper]

Quote from jho:

Everytime I read one of your posts I pray for Mr. Market to swoop down and wipe your trading account out. Now you may be saying "Well that's a horrible thing to say". In reality it's the best possible thing that could happen to you stock_trad3r.

Learning to "trade", invest or whatever takes many years. It's quite obvious you're in the beginning stages, and thats fine, everyone has to go through it. But there will come a time when you take a huge hit and you'll have to decide whether you wish to continue your lazy blind gambling or snap out of your delusional world and try to absorb some knowledge here on ET.

“There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do. And when you know what not to do in order not to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order to win. Did you get that? You begin to learn!”
- Jesse Livermore

It's obvious he's either too lazy or too stupid to learn. He wants people to tell him what is going to happen. .. and it better be bullish or else.

Remember this is guy who after a few days of selling after the the longest bull market in 100 years states, "this selling is way overdone".

Yet when the market was up 24 out of 27 days it never crossed his mind that the buying could have been way overdone.

Anyways I share your sentient. I hope he gets wiped or humble or just shuts the f up. I doubt he will though.

 

[executioner]

this is funny,out of all the replies there are only 2 that answered his question..why do all these other guys post on this board? the negativity is a friggin joke. he asked a question,if you refuse to answer it why respond?

it seems the market rallied when yields started falling and the market really took off when the fed minutes were released today.
i'm a trader so i can't tell you whee the markets will go tomorrow.

 

[Comanche]

Quote from atticus:

The SP500 earnings yield is approximately 6.4% on projected 2007 earnings. I'd imagine we'll see a large haircut on the SPX if the ten-year yield rallies 100-basis!

I'm not stating it won't happen, but IMO it's much more likely the SPX will fall to reach parity.

Key part of this is "projected 2007 earnings". Everything is priced to perfection already, you will see guidance get lowered by many, just like the big step back by Newcor Steel. With rates going up, consumer spending will be affected AS well as business spending. Housing will take a harder fall with higher rates as well, leading to more unemployment.

Bottom line is if the top is not in already (my vote), it is very near.

And since I just can't resist........


I got your respect right here stock_buyandholdandneverselland watchgoallthewayagainstmewhydidn'tijusttakeprofit-

 

[jho]

Quote from executioner:

he asked a question,if you refuse to answer it why respond?

I was just replying to many of his posts. It really had nothing to do with the question and maybe should have been reserved for another thread or PM. Anyway what's done is done.

stock_trad3r - If you really want to trade for a living, continue your search of knowledge, things will begin to click after a few years. Ohh and try to be humble, trust me if you're not the market will humble you itself.

 

[atticus]

I assume nonlinear believes the index markets will rise, which lowers yield. Parity with current 10-year rates would require a > 300 point rally on SPX. This assumes static $earnings [and $TYX] based upon year-end 2007 projections.

 

[William Rennick]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

if you're a 'respected poster' please post you insight regarding the sex kitten known as liz clayman

so I'm wondering what the 'experts' have to say

YOU RANG...

Renick out

 

[Brandonf]

Is there such a thing as respect on ET? I thought any dream of civility was lost here long ago.

 

[crgarcia]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

if you're a 'respected poster' please post you insight regarding the recent selloff and the 10 year bond.

What will happen? How long?

A lot of people here criticizes me for not knowing how the market works and being a buy and hold permabull so I'm wondering what the 'experts' have to say regarding the current market activity since my analysis isn't up to par apparently.

The bond selloff isn't severe, certainly it isn't a correction, a crash nor much less, a recession.

The real "problem" is the summer slowdown. It's probable that the market will move sideways this summer, then during fall the market will resume its moderately bullish trend.

 

[maxpi]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

Not a single 'respected' posted has offered their invaluable insight regarding the 10 year bond on my thread.

I thought they knew everything. So where are they?

Figure it out, they have you on ignore.