Research orientated day trading

S

solikon

I began this thread to summarize my thoughts, opinions and research. It is absolutely different trading style that most of you guys doin´ here and most likely will not be too popular or helpful for technical oriented high competitive environment traders.
I mean by that, for traders who operates in such a large and highly effective instruments like forex, stock indexes, bonds and large caps.
I am not successful on that ones either I do not wanna to say that I am successful at all.
But I got my eyes open and I realized that if I wanna make some money in this business I need to do something very different that is not popular in general. I need to do what others want to do and what others do not.
I realized that just drawing a trendlines here and there just do not work as often as I wish, not because TA is bad or meaningless but because 99.9% other traders who wanna steal my money do the same.
If I wanna their money I need to do something more sophisticated that they do and things they hate and want to do....
I do not want to say shyt like "Even if one mind will be changed I will be glad and this thread will make sense". No I do not want to talk to anyone because I can not change anything, everyone needs to go through paint, strikes which hits time to time and be comfortable with that you will never be trading without stress...But.... you can eliminated it a lot if you get confident.
One more note. I do not will be posting regularly and non stop and probably will not reply immediately if you PM me. (IF you do, of course :)).
Hope my English improves and gets better.
 
Ok, so there is my first idea and recent example of stock what I like to scale in and attack with huge confidence. In this types of trades I got a win rate % well over 70%, but more likely around 80 in the long run.
The name of the company is Genetic Technologies Limited. with ticker $GENE.
This small cap biotech company is specializing in genetic testing services, offers a range of tests for various types of cancers and epilepsy....bla bla bla..... At all it does not matter.
Long story short the company is in my point of view a piece of turd and burning money machine rated by market on nearly 50 mio what is big misunderstanding and even CEO can not predicate what is behind such a huge increase of value in such a short period of time.
Everything began with fluff PR of the company on 29th January that 6 new breast cancer testing centers began to offering one of their tests. On this PR stock rocketed by 230% the same day.
I am trying to look at it as objectively as much as I can but I do not understand if company cooperate with 145 centers together and another 6 were added... is it possible to lift a company value by 230 %???
 
Another wave of buying came as on ASX exchange company released that JP Morgan took a 76mil shares stake in company. This was very very bad interpreted by many chasers as long as they do not realized that company does not buy any stake but they borrows a shares for their clients. What does this mean? They borrowed shares to enable short sell to their clients. Is it a good sign? Do not thing so....
After this announcement the company is pumped even more and their shares rocketed to nearly $10 on Nasdaq of Friday, valuating a company which is loosing $2 per share/year and got 2 and half mio. in cash to more than 50mio in market cap.
Fueling this move was from early shorts covering in panic their short positions from 3-4 range and many buyers/chasers who see an opportunity and does not rationalize the development and fundamentals.
Through these facts GENE is my toy for playing it on the short side for recent weeks. I can guaranteed that within a month or two prices will be very likely below $4
For intelligent investors and traders I wish a happy ride :)
 
solikon said:
Ok, so there is my first idea and recent example of stock what I like to scale in and attack with huge confidence. In this types of trades I got a win rate % well over 70%, but more likely around 80 in the long run.
The name of the company is Genetic Technologies Limited. with ticker $GENE.
This small cap biotech company is specializing in genetic testing services, offers a range of tests for various types of cancers and epilepsy....bla bla bla..... At all it does not matter.
Long story short the company is in my point of view a piece of turd and burning money machine rated by market on nearly 50 mio what is big misunderstanding and even CEO can not predicate what is behind such a huge increase of value in such a short period of time.
Everything began with fluff PR of the company on 29th January that 6 new breast cancer testing centers began to offering one of their tests. On this PR stock rocketed by 230% the same day.
I am trying to look at it as objectively as much as I can but I do not understand if company cooperate with 145 centers together and another 6 were added... is it possible to lift a company value by 230 %???
More...
Never ever scale in or scale out. It is inferior behavior.
 
That is an interesting observation about jp morgan buying so they have shortable shares for clients. Just wondering how you know that to be the case?
 
roberk said:
That is an interesting observation about jp morgan buying so they have shortable shares for clients. Just wondering how you know that to be the case?
More...
I read the purpose of the transaction released on ASX under company ticker. In the column type of the transaction, there was: Borrowed not purchased
 
ok lets summarize this trade. after today´s offering price of the $GENE lost another 19%. I am still holding 1/4 of my position from 10.15. Hope someone traded it too and take 50% gain called real time. Will be waiting for another misspriced peace of garbage stock and post a report when I find. For that time to come, please stay safe and out of the fancy stuff.
 
Ah GENE, I remember this stock well. I traded GENE a couple years ago in a similar situation. The price went from $.60 to up over $10 in a matter of weeks on no news. The CEO at the time again had no explanation for why the stock jumped, and I believe the company was investigated by some Australian regulatory agencies for the "mysterious" stock price movement. In the end the stock was halted for a couple of weeks, then reopened down 40% after a secondary offering. It took over year, but the stock went back to sub $1. I think they had a reverse stock split at some point as well, which makes the numbers even more crazy back then. Good luck with the trade, I have a feeling you will be on the right side of this one.
 
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Well. I am calling a day. I will began posting in revenge mode as I totally faked up today trading in $WING ticker. I got a plan in the morning as I saw the price action on the daily charts and saw opening little bit higher than yesterday´s close (+2%). I get in nearly right at the open with first part of the overal position (1/5). Then stock held and start to spiking even higher. In the little parabolic I added around 34.60 which represented (2/5). I want to add even higher around 35.50 and then 36 and 37 if squeeze would be extended....
As 11am was comming I noticed that emotions are out of this trade and uptrend is established well and stock is poised to grind even higher. At this point I decided to cut out my whole position with a loss and also cancel my entry orders for shorts add....
At this level my thinking proces was... Well I try to participate on early morning push, It did not worked, uptrend is in place I will get out and reconsider the trade once if speed up occurs. Basicaly this meaned to enter somwhere around 36.5-37....
Now I can see that I covered almost at the top at 34.82 :(.... I was very angry as I saw almost after my cover stock to drop and fill the gap... Basically it did exactly as I planned my trade but failed to stick with it as I got scarred of further upside..... Well, ready to fight another day
 
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