Report: Markets 'Are Like 1987 Crash'

Quote from killATwill:

i'm not intentionally trying to contradict you, but not so fast here. it's not as simple as that. take a look at japan since 1991. rents and housing prices have gone down together. take a look at late 90s argentina, take a look at the data after the great depression. deflation typically knocks both the price of a property and its rent down simultaneously.

rents are increasing according to cpi data, but in the same data set housing prices are rising too, albeit much more slowly than they used to. my guess is that landlords raise the price of their apts during energy shocks, and that may be seeping into the data.

i suspect both housing and rent prices are lower in '08. then again, if oil is at $200 a barrel, rents are prolly much higher.
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Thanks:), that one just blurbed out of my mouth without thinking, actually heard it from someone else.
 
Quote from bgp:

in this "new economy" rents will fall with housing . there is a large inventory of houses on the market and apartments and still building !

bgp
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This could very well be the case - we'll have to see. Just curious if population growth counts for anything :)
 
Quote from FaderTrader:

Again - I REALLY think that EqtTrdr should start a reverse signal service. Because I think we all know he's not making any money from the markets. So, why not sell his services as a professional idiot. When someone is that good at being wrong, they deserve to get paid for it.
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Job is already taken:

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Quote from FaderTrader:

Again - I REALLY think that EqtTrdr should start a reverse signal service. Because I think we all know he's not making any money from the markets. So, why not sell his services as a professional idiot. When someone is that good at being wrong, they deserve to get paid for it.
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you were saying.....?
 
Look at the SOX (semi's) index...

Yesterday KLAC (back dating options), today LRCX, who's next ?


Just hope you don't own a stock that gets investigated....
 
Quote from capmac:

Look at the SOX (semi's) index...

Yesterday KLAC (back dating options), today LRCX, who's next ?


Just hope you don't own a stock that gets investigated....
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Its strange but true;
QQQQ has had trouble staying above its 50 day moving average all year to date:cool:

Actually thought SPY & ES would finish eod higher today;
& 1212.2 ES looks more likely than 1313 direction. Its more bearish than DIA, YM

Might not help GM, & some oil/gas stocks got slaughtered in 87;
but oil & gas dividend stocks still uptrending:cool:
 
Well technically semi's, biotech, healthcare did not control this rally. So forth the commodities, and materials as well as industrial machinery and goods led this rally. Thats the reason DOW was rising and Nasdaq pretty much stayed on the same level.
 
Quote from FaderTrader:

Rents do increase in a slowing housing market as would-be buyers are forced to rent. You need look no further than last week's CPI, which was up not due to energy prices, but to the Housing Equivalency component, which measures what a homeowner "could get" if he were to rent his property. And it's up.

Simply supply and demand. People have to live somewhere - if not in thier own home, then in someone else's rented one. And it's a tad ironic that these components move counter to one another. Fewer buyers = More renters = Higher rent. In a way, increasing rents in a slowing housing market act as a bit of a hedge against decreasing real estate values.

There are many landlords here in NYC, for example, who took the peak in the housing market as an opportunity to update/renovate thier building in preparation for this phenomenon. Once again, proof that countertrending can and does work.
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Thats assuming that income is directly proportional to affordability - which it is not, especially in coastal areas. Other factors like interest rates come into question.

What you've described is a housing environment that lends itself to speculation, not hedging (think of what market participants hedge versus which ones speculate... their motives are not subjective). Taken in context, the basis behind rental price is subjective and usually not supply driven: there will always be cheap places to live. In general renters are not hedgers and only a portion of buyers are speculators; becuase of this, classic forces of supply and demand do not necessarily impact rental/housing price, more often tha not income and familial needs do. From my experiences, what people are willing to pay for a rental is purely subjective based on personal needs.
 
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