Remember When Trump Said He Saved 1,100 Jobs at a Carrier Plant?

Moody's and CRFB are using alternative facts. :D


Most people often may not like any negative news.

However, some positive people would be keen to make use of negative news for constructive review/improvement on their original plans.


https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/cbo-report-shows-higher-long-term-deficits.308233/
CBO report shows higher long-term deficits
The national debt is on track to nearly double over the next three decades, the Congressional Budget Office said Thursday, highlighting a challenge for the Trump administration, which has yet to propose any policies to lower deficits. President Donald Trump has signaled he intends to pursue policies that may in fact drive deficits even higher. The CBO’s annual report shows the federal debt, would reach 150% of GDP in 2047. (The Wall Street Journal)
 
450px-CBO_-_Employment_Shortfall_-_v1.png
CBO explanation for shortfall in employment of 2.5 million relative to a theoretical full employment level.[152]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_policy_of_Donald_Trump


525px-Debt_to_GDP_Ratio_under_Mr._Trump%27s_Policies.png
Projected effect of Trump's plans on the debt-to-GDP ratio over ten years, as calculated Moody's Analytics (light blue line) and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (orange line). The black line is the projection under current policy (as calculated by the Congressional Budget Office), which is similar to the CRFB's projection for the policies of Trump's rival, Clinton.[16]

Let's see the forecasts that moody's made for obama's budgets and then compare them to what actually happened.

That should s̶h̶o̶w̶ ̶w̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶a̶ ̶j̶o̶k̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶i̶s̶ be very enlightening.
 
Most people often may not like any negative news.

However, some positive people would be keen to make use of negative news for constructive review/improvement on their original plans.


https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/cbo-report-shows-higher-long-term-deficits.308233/
A rational person would think the President would heed the warning of the CBO and alter his plans so as not to make the deficit problem worse. A rational President would alter his plans, to actually reduce the deficit somewhat. Trump could start by holding military expenditure constant, so in constant dollars military spending would decline by about two percent a year. A rational President would retain the medicare supplemental tax on single tax payers above 200K and joint filers above 250K. Who do they think they are kidding when they increase expenditures and cut revenues? This is the same supply side economics that George H. W. Bush called Voodoo economics, and he was right. It's this voodoo economics that produced steadily falling real wages and the incredibly high Reagan, and later and G.W.Bush, deficits. The burden of dealing with the latter spilled over into the Obama administration.

If you want to boost the economy, do it on the demand side! Raise the minimum wage to a living wage and lower the tax rates on middle income earners. This will boost the economy and revenues will increase* instead of decreasing as they did during the Reagan Presidency. Cuts at the bottom end must to some extent be made up by reduced spending on wasting assets, ie. military hardware, but not on investment and infrastructure. Failing that, tax rates at the high end of must rise. The best way to accomplish the latter is through introduction of more brackets, i.e. a restoration of progressive.

Demand side stimulus benefits the rich and poor alike. You can't make everyone better off by giving money to the wealthy. But you can avoid significantly impacting the wealthy while vastly improving the lot of the middle class by leaving more capital with the middle class. That's not intuitively obvious, but that's how economics work.

Below is a link to a fine article about supply side economics, also called Voodoo economics, trickle down economics, or Reaganomics. Not mentioned is the tax increase in the lowest bracket that became necessary when Congress insisted that tax cuts in the upper brackets be revenue neutral, after the ill effects of the drastic bracket compression of the 1981 cuts became evident. This led to a series of tax increases. The overall effect of tax policy during the Reagan administration was to increase the total tax burden at the low end slightly and reduced it drastically at the top end -- social security and medicare taxes were raised as was the lowest bracket rate. This shifting of the revenue burden has been only partly undone in subsequent years. The compounded result of these policies in large measure explains the exponential shape of the wealth distribution curve with time. Most of the capital is accumulating at an ever increasing rate at the top end, while real wages continuously fall at the bottom end. This is unsustainable.
___________________
*Assuming the top tax levels are relatively low, as they are today.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reaganomics
 
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Let's see the forecasts that moody's made for obama's budgets and then compare them to what actually happened.

That should s̶h̶o̶w̶ ̶w̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶a̶ ̶j̶o̶k̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶i̶s̶ be very enlightening.

Very good point indeed.

I fully agree. The future is to be seen.

An expanded gap in the next few years may not be the real issue if Trump this term can truly build an innovative solid groundwork for future economic development. Which is practically not impossible if Trump and his team and GOP altogether has the determination to do so before their time is running out.

Just my 10 cents guess.
 
A rational person would think the President would heed the warning of the CBO and alter his plans so as not to make the deficit problem worse. A rational President would alter his plans, to actually reduce the deficit somewhat. Trump could start by holding military expenditure constant, so in constant dollars military spending would decline by about two percent a year. A rational President would retain the medicare supplemental tax on single tax payers above 200K and joint filers above 250K. Who do they think they are kidding when they increase expenditures and cut revenues? This is the same supply side economics that George H. W. Bush called Voodoo economics, and he was right. It's this voodoo economics that produced steadily falling real wages and the incredibly high Reagan, and later and G.W.Bush, deficits. The burden of dealing with the latter spilled over into the Obama administration.

If you want to boost the economy, do it on the demand side! Raise the minimum wage to a living wage and lower the tax rates on middle income earners. This will boost the economy and revenues will increase* instead of decreasing as they did during the Reagan Presidency. Cuts at the bottom end must to some extent be made up by reduced spending on wasting assets, ie. military hardware, but not on investment and infrastructure. Failing that, tax rates at the high end of must rise. The best way to accomplish the latter is through introduction of more brackets, i.e. a restoration of progressive.

Demand side stimulus benefits the rich and poor alike. You can't make everyone better off by giving money to the wealthy. But you can avoid significantly impacting the wealthy while vastly improving the lot of the middle class by leaving more capital with the middle class. That's not intuitively obvious, but that's how economics work.

Below is a link to a fine article about supply side economics, also called Voodoo economics, trickle down economics, or Reaganomics. Not mentioned is the tax increase in the lowest bracket that became necessary when Congress insisted that tax cuts in the upper brackets be revenue neutral, after the ill effects of the drastic bracket compression of the 1981 cuts became evident. This led to a series of tax increases. The overall effect of tax policy during the Reagan administration was to increase the total tax burden at the low end slightly and reduced it drastically at the top end -- social security and medicare taxes were raised as was the lowest bracket rate. This shifting of the revenue burden has been only partly undone in subsequent years. The compounded result of these policies in large measure explains the exponential shape of the wealth distribution curve with time. Most of the capital is accumulating at an ever increasing rate at the top end, while real wages continuously fall at the bottom end. This is unsustainable.
___________________
*Assuming the top tax levels are relatively low, as they are today.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reaganomics

Personally I cannot see Trump so far has any economic model or principle to carry our most of his dream promises.

I can see probably his main philosophy seems to reverse everything that was established by the previous establishment by both sides of the aisle. This philosophy might be good/correct and definitely worth to try anyway, based on already many times of nearly budget dead-lock in how the nation can further move forward.

Perhaps Trump should have appointed Sanders as his deputy. Never too late - LOL.

Bernie Sanders’ economic policy

http://www.economist.com/news/unite...es-would-sink-sanders-economic-plan-vote-what

Partly because of this, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, an advocacy group, reckons Mr Sanders has highballed his revenue estimates by $3 trillion over a decade.

... ...

Mr Sanders predicts $6.3 trillion of savings over a decade.
 
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