Quote from lundy:
I've been on the wrong side of 2 NQ spikes, and 1 ES spike. I have to say that it looked like manipulation. Someone with a book of all the orders and stops up to 80 points above the market can do real damage when he sees that liquidity is low.
All it would take is a 2 people. One puts in a buy for a few thousand contracts, the other puts a limit sell 80 points above the market. They split the profits.
The fact that these spikes don't go up 1000 points is evidence that it is planned. Otherwise, who would have sold into these spikes?
Talk about a bias. I'll give you credit for at least admitting it. Of course it's manipulative. My point was "was the news really worth an 80 point move?" Of course the answer is no. I suspect most people would have seen it that way too and sold into the markets the next day. That's what efficient markets are about.
Why did these traders leave those resting orders in place? I don't know but they did and no one forced them too. They knew there were risks to leaving the orders on, and they accepted them, only to get bailed out by the CME later on. Lucky them.
As for you scenario, that would leave the "team" short contracts wouldn't it? If they were long at the close, and bought contracts in AH only to sell later on, who would they sell to, they were the only significant demand in that market.